Some American media recently named the Ukraine-Russia war as the “second stage”, referring to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February. At the beginning, even American public opinion hinted that the war would end soon under the pressure of the Russian army; so far, it has been disproved that the Russian army is not as brave as most observers predicted, and it is like “the Russian army lost the first stage of the war. ”, so Putin turned his attention back to the Donbass in eastern Ukraine, where he planned to build a puppet government.
Looking back at the first week of the war, despite the high level of cooperation between the United States and its allies in economic sanctions once morest Russia, no one believed that this would effectively prevent Russia from taking Ukraine. The situation gradually changed. In addition, many Ukrainian cities were bombed into rubble for no reason, and a large number of refugees continued to flee, which made it receive the sympathy and support of the vast majority of international public opinion, and the U.S. action to support Ukraine also took a turn at this moment.
In mid-March, the U.S. government once once more announced an additional expansion of the supply of Ukrainian weapons, with military support amounting to $1 billion and relief totaling $2 billion. According to the third-party transfer of defense equipment between the US State Department and other countries, at least 30 countries other than the United States are directly adding weapons to Ukraine.On April 21, the United States recently announced that it would deliver 120 “Phoenix Ghost” drones to Ukraine for aerial firepower assistance to the Donbass, a move even accused ofUS has declared war on Russiawhich cannot be compared with the effect of economic sanctions a month and a half ago.
Ukraine has proven itself vulnerable to Russian military might. (Associated Press)
I still remember that in early March, Taiwan paid special attention to the situation in Ukraine because it was also threatened by China’s aggression. The US media once analyzed the reason why Taiwan is concerned regarding Ukraine, mainly worried that “if Russia successfully occupied Ukraine, the Chinese leaders may regard such an outcome as a result. Give the green light for other countries to invade Taiwan once morest China.” This is of course the most unwelcome development for Taiwan, and this war is also testing the national strength, credibility, and distribution of power in the global system, Taiwan’s most important ally, the United States. China’s question of how the US aids Ukraine has indirectly given Taiwan a certain kind of self-judgment. For example, if the US cannot ensure the continued existence of Ukraine as an independent and democratic country, will its strength in defending Taiwan be questioned?
However, before the United States announced the delivery of weapons to Ukraine in mid-March, there was no obvious voice in the United States regarding whether to go to war with Russia. At that time, American public opinion was divided on how to view the Ukrainian crisis. One party believed that even though it was important to consolidate NATO’s defense, the key interests of the United States were in Asia, and military resources should have been deployed in Asia rather than on the battlefield in Ukraine. The other side’s rebuttal is that if the United States acts too “focusing on Asia and ignoring Europe”, it does not mean that it will give Xi Jinping a strong evidence that “the power of the United States is weakening”, as if to declare that it is indeed unable to take into account the overall situation, especially if the United States still If you want to lead Europe once morest the hegemonic countries, then directly confront an enemy that is slightly weaker than China – Russia, isn’t it a good opportunity? In the early days, the US did not actively demonstrate its determination to defend Ukraine by force, considering its reasons (including fear of causing a world war). However, because of this “wait and see period”, Taiwanese skeptics of the United States have made use of the theme.
After that, because of Ukraine’s own actions, the scripts of both Russia and the United States were constantly rewritten. Zelensky’s ability to speak and the fearlessness of the Ukrainian army at least prevented him from allowing the Russian occupation to succeed in less than a month, like the 2014 Crimean War. The “US choice” has become relatively simple, which has brought regarding a dramatic development of the Ukrainian army’s resistance to Russia.
European countries have not paid particular attention to Taiwan because of the war, but increasingly cast more skeptical eyes on China because of “China’s actions and reactions.” (Associated Press)
Fortunately, Ukraine has survived until now. It was obvious that the voices of the people who had been shouting “Russia had to fight Ukraine because it was threatened by NATO”, “U.S. behind Ukraine”, “Small countries should not provoke big countries”, etc., have obviously become quieter. Just like Donbass, which the Russian army is eager to take, there are many pro-Russian people who speak Russian, but “when the bomb falls on your house, the potential sympathy for Russia will instantly turn into a strong disgust.” .
In the past few years, China has launched many smokeless wars once morest Taiwan, poaching allied countries with its left hand, using economic leverage with its right hand to try to isolate Taiwan on the global stage, and directly interfering in Taiwan’s democracy. God, compared to Ukraine, Taiwan did not rely on itself to survive until now. Today, the competition between democracy and authoritarianism is not just a matter of a few countries, nor does it exist only in Taiwan and China. It is a feature of this era. The internationalization of security across the Taiwan Strait, like Ukraine, is not a matter of “calling out”. Yes, the situation arises out of self-help.
Looking back at the ups and downs of the Ukrainian war in the past month or so, the foundation of Taiwan’s internal “American suspicion” has weakened a lot. Furthermore, when Russia violated the international community’s desire for peace and only China chose to stand on its side, although other European countries did not pay special attention to Taiwan because of the war, they became increasingly concerned regarding “China’s actions and response” and cast more skeptical eyes on China. From this point of view, although Ukraine’s resistance does not directly involve Taiwan, and the war is still going on, the country’s performance so far has actually blocked a lot of invisible bullets for Taiwan.
※The author is the chief writer of “Report”