2023-11-05 07:00:09
In a few years, global carbon emissions might cross a critical threshold, researchers warn. More precisely, we have six years left to reverse the trend and considerably reduce greenhouse gas emissions (The greenhouse effect is a natural process which, for a given absorption of energy…).
A recent study indicates that we are dangerously approaching our “carbon budget” limit. This is defined as the quantity of carbon dioxide (Carbon dioxide, commonly called carbon dioxide or carbon dioxide, is a…) which we can still reject while avoiding global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (the symbol °C or ℃) is ‘unit of…) above pre-industrial levels. Scientists indicate that if emissions continue at the current rate, we will cross this threshold before the end of the decade.
According to calculations, from January onwards, emitting more than 250 gigatons of CO2 would result in the limit of 1.5°C being exceeded. Robin Lamboll, researcher at the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London (London – /?l ?nd?n/) is the capital as well as the largest city…), confirms this urgency: “The window (In architecture and construction, a window is a bay, an opening in a wall or a section… ) closes quickly.”
In 2015, leaders of 196 countries signed the Paris Agreement, a legally binding treaty aimed at limiting global temperature increases to below 2°C. The agreement highlights that a limit to 1.5°C would help prevent the most serious impacts of climate change.
Humans emit nearly 40 gigatons of CO2 each year (A year is a unit of time expressing the duration between two occurrences of a related event…). Without reducing these emissions, our remaining carbon budget to stay below 1.5°C will be exhausted in six years, according to the researchers.
This study draws on data from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, with revised methods to account for current and historical aerosol emissions. These particles can reflect light from the sun and cool the climate, partially offsetting the warming caused by greenhouse gases.
The researchers halved the remaining carbon budget estimate to stay below 1.5°C. They also calculate that we have 1,200 gigatons of CO2 before reaching the Paris Agreement limit of 2°C, a budget that will be exhausted in the next two decades if no action is taken.
These estimates contain significant uncertainties, particularly regarding the effects of other greenhouse gases such as methane. The absorption (In optics, absorption refers to the process by which the energy of a photon is taken by…) of CO2 by vegetation. growing in some regions might offset some of the warming, while changes in ocean traffic and melting ice caps glaciers might accelerate warming.
Faced with these uncertainties, the need to rapidly reduce emissions becomes glaring. Every additional fraction of a degree will complicate life on Earth, insists Robin Lamboll.
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