2024-11-03 17:46:00
While technological advances can disrupt the job market, not all types of positions are affected equally. People performing tasks that are repetitive and easy to standardize are more at risk of losing their jobs to automation, and they are subsequently less likely to be able to find stable employment.
In most developed countries, technological changes lead to significant transformations in the labor market by profoundly modifying the tasks that companies must have employees carry out. For example, ATMs make it possible to carry out a number of activities that previously required going through a bank branch, or portals on which customers provide their own data mean that companies need fewer employees to collect this information. information. At the same time, new technologies require more engineers, technicians and managers to implement them.
We are thus seeing employment growth in the highest paid positions, which require advanced cognitive skills and the ability to solve complex problems. These are indeed difficult tasks to automate. At the other end of the spectrum, there is also an increase in manual employment involving human interaction, as customers prefer to deal with a human for childcare or haircut changes, making these tasks difficult to make by machines.
On the other hand, mid-level jobs, often consisting of routine and repetitive tasks, are the most affected by these technological developments. These positions, based on well-defined procedures, have experienced a significant decline in recent decades.
How new technologies are transforming employment in France
This phenomenon, called job polarization, was highlighted in the United States by researchers David Autor and David Dornbut it concerns many other countries, as shown Maarten Goos, Alan Manning and Anna Salomons in the case of European countries. France is no exception to this trend, and here as elsewhere, new technologies are changing the content of tasks and the skills sought by companies.
These changes are then reflected in the evolution of the level of employment or hours worked, depending on whether the tasks are abstract, routine or manual. This is also observed through flows on the labor market, since the arrival of new technologies means that some people lose their jobs and have to find another one.
Thus, since the beginning of the 1980s, the total number of hours worked per person in routine jobs has decreased by about a third (32%)while hours spent on more abstract or manual activities increased over the same period.
A polarized labor market with more precarious jobs
The consequences of polarization vary from country to country, due to differences in labor markets and the institutions that regulate them. For example, the French labor market is considered less flexible than that of the United States.
This influences the way in which employment will be able to adapt to these changes, and the career paths of workers on both sides of the Atlantic. One of the consequences of this less flexibility is the development of a dual labor market in France with, on the one hand, those who have a full-time permanent contract, less affected by these upheavals, and on the other, those who have precarious contracts, on fixed-term or part-time contracts, more frequently exposed to these adjustments.
Consider an employee who had a routine permanent job, and who would lose it due to the arrival of a new technology. Will he find a job of a different nature, or will he again be in a routine job (and therefore potentially more threatened)? Will this transition take place with a contract corresponding to the full-time permanent contract standard? We can bet that finding this last type of contract will be more frequently associated with a more promising job. As routine jobs become less and less routine, there is a greater chance that returning to work in this category will frequently be accompanied by increased precariousness.
Is this scenario contradicted by the facts? Since the 1980s, the polarization of employment in France has been accompanied by an increase in atypical or non-standard forms of employment, such as fixed-term contracts (CDD) and part-time work. The majority of job creations is in fact now done on a fixed-term contract. Over this period, atypical employment increased in all three job categories (abstract, routine and manual), but the increase in hours worked in atypical employment is particularly notable, since they increased by 175% among workers performing routine activities, despite the overall decline in this category of jobs.
Recessions: accelerators of employment transformation
Do these changes occur relatively regularly, or on the contrary more abruptly? As is also the case in the United States, our observations show that these changes largely occur during periods of recessionwhere the drop in activity pushes companies to adjust their workforce and hours worked more drastically.
Routine employment is thus the one that declines the most during each recession. Thus, during the four major recessions that France has experienced since the 1980s, the fall in standard routine employment (full-time permanent contracts) explains the largest part of the reduction in hours worked. On the other hand, atypical employment does not always decrease in bad times. On the contrary, it can even increase, despite a general drop in demand for work. When this happens, more stable contracts are replaced by more precarious ones, and this can affect many routine workers who lose their jobs massively during these periods.
In the United States, routine employment is also severely affected during recessions. On the other hand, if atypical employment (mainly part-time work, because there are no fixed-term contracts across the Atlantic) increases during periods of economic slowdown, it decreases when the economy picks up. The share of atypical jobs then simply plays a role in cushioning crises, but this share remains stable in the long term, which means that the chances of accessing this type of contract remain on average the same in the long term. . This contrasts with the French case, where the dualism of the labor market is accentuated over time.
The consequences for workers
Ideally, when a routine job is destroyed, workers who become unemployed should be able to reorient themselves towards jobs for which the demand for labor is growing, such as those requiring abstract skills. However, this is most often not the case in France, because mobility towards new tasks remains limited. After a period of unemployment, the majority of former routine workers return to similar jobs. Moreover, this is frequently done in atypical forms of employment, leading to more precariousness. This would be a lesser evil if an atypical contract opened up prospects for progress towards more stable contracts subsequently, but this is ultimately not the case.
We thus show that after a quarter spent unemployed, a quarter of workers who previously held a routine type of job with a standard contract find a job, but they are then more likely to be hired on atypical contracts. It is not possible to say what happens in the longer term to these same workers in our data, but this potentially reflects a locking of these workers into precarious jobs with poor future prospects. Again, all this contrasts with what we observe in the United States where mobility by task is more important.
Towards better adaptability?
The developments described above in the French case undoubtedly contribute to the feeling of downgrading and the difficulties felt by a significant part of the population of our country. To improve the situation, it would be desirable to streamline the functioning of our labor market, and to make workers more easily adaptable to these changes.
This involves several complementary points: first of all, reforming the institutions which govern our labor market and which contribute to this growing dualism. It is therefore necessary first of all to rethink our job protection system and the legislation on employment contracts, which were not designed to allow adaptation to technological developments like those described above. Then, help those who lose their jobs by directing them as much as possible towards the most promising activities, which is the responsibility of unemployment insurance. Finally, ahead of all this, it seems essential to rethink our training system to offer workers better adaptation skills and retraining opportunities throughout their working lives.
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**Interview with Dr. Emily Hartman, Labor Market Expert**
*Date: November 3, 2024*
**Interviewer:** Good evening, Dr. Hartman. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the phenomenon of job polarization in the United States and beyond. To start, can you briefly explain what job polarization is?
**Dr. Hartman:** Good evening! Job polarization refers to the growing divide in employment opportunities, where we see an increase in high-paying jobs that require advanced skills and a rise in lower-paying, manual jobs that require human interaction, while middle-income, routine jobs are disappearing. This trend has been observed since the 1990s and continues to reshape labor markets across developed countries.
**Interviewer:** What specific technological changes are contributing to this trend?
**Dr. Hartman:** Technological advancements, particularly automation, are significantly impacting the job market. Jobs that consist of repetitive and easily standardized tasks are at high risk of being automated. For example, banking services have seen jobs diminish as ATMs and online platforms reduce the need for in-person transactions. Meanwhile, roles that require creative problem-solving or personal interaction are in demand and growing.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned that mid-level jobs are particularly affected. What does this mean for workers in those roles?
**Dr. Hartman:** Workers in mid-level positions often find themselves in a precarious situation. As these routine jobs decline, many individuals struggle to transition into new roles. Although they may find employment again, it often comes in the form of atypical work arrangements—like part-time or fixed-term contracts—which provide less security and fewer benefits. This trend can lead to increased economic instability for many workers.
**Interviewer:** How does the situation differ between the United States and countries like France?
**Dr. Hartman:** That’s an excellent question. The U.S. labor market tends to be more flexible, allowing for easier transitions between jobs and roles, though this flexibility can mean fewer protections for workers. In France, the labor market is more rigid, leading to a dual structure where some workers enjoy stable contracts while others face precarious conditions. The differences in labor regulation significantly influence how workers experience job polarization.
**Interviewer:** With recessions also playing a role in these changes, how do they impact employment?
**Dr. Hartman:** Recessions can accelerate job polarization. During economic downturns, routine jobs—the first to be cut—experience the most significant declines. Although atypical jobs may rise during these periods as companies opt for flexible contracts, this often exacerbates the duality in the labor market. Workers losing their routine jobs may find it more challenging to secure permanent, stable positions afterward.
**Interviewer:** what advice would you give to workers currently navigating this polarized labor market?
**Dr. Hartman:** I would encourage individuals to actively seek skill development and training opportunities that align with growing industries. Being adaptable and open to learning new skills is crucial. Networking and seeking support through professional organizations can also help individuals find more secure employment opportunities. It’s important to stay informed about labor market trends in order to make proactive career decisions.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Hartman, for sharing your insights on this important topic!
**Dr. Hartman:** Thank you for having me! It’s vital for us to understand these changes in the labor market to support individuals effectively in their career journeys.
