Less presence of Juntos and Kirchnerism

2023-08-14 11:47:50

After the PASO elections, which to a certain extent function like a great national survey, a more fragmented national Congress is taking shape, the forceful expansion of Libertad Avanza in the Chamber of Deputies and its irruption in the Senate.

In addition, if these figures were reproduced exactly on October 22 in the general elections, the block of Together for Change would shrink in the Upper House and Unión por la Patria would do the same in the Lower House.

Even with the open expectation of how the national map will be painted following the first electoral round -which is the one that counts-, it is already possible to begin to sketch in the light of the STEP on the canvas of electoral representation the thick lines of the new parliamentary composition.

The outlook in the Senate

If these results were replicated in October, La Libertad Avanza would give the blow by taking nine seats in the Senate, out of the 24 that are at stake in October.

The political force of Javier Milei managed to win in the category of candidates for national senators in the provinces of Jujuy, La Rioja, and San Luis.

In turn, it snatched second place from Juntos por el Cambio in Formosa and San Juan, so it would snatch those seats from the main opposition alliance.

Like La Libertad Avanza, Unión por la Patria would keep 9 seats, while Juntos por el Cambio 5 and the remaining two would go to the Frente Renovador de la Concordia de Misiones, which accompanied Sergio’s presidential formula nationwide. Massa and Agustin Rossi.

The balance for the ruling party would be neutral, since it would retain the 9 seats it was risking, without gaining any additional ones. The good election in the province of Buenos Aires and in Santa Cruz, where they finished in first place, allowed them to at least recover the lost ground and compensate for the setbacks in other districts. On the other hand, the outlook for Together for Change would be adverse, because it puts 11 seats at stake and with the results of these STEP it would lose six of them.

The stage in the Chamber of Deputies

In the Chamber of Deputies, a total of 130 deputies are renewed: 35 for the Province of Buenos Aires, 12 for the City of Buenos Aires, 10 for Santa Fe, 9 for Córdoba and 5 for Mendoza and Tucumán.

In addition, Corrientes, Entre Ríos, Misiones, Salta and Santiago del Estero will elect four new deputies; while the provinces of Chaco, Chubut, Formosa, Jujuy, La Rioja, Rio Negro, San Juan and Tierra del Fuego, put three seats each at stake.

Finally, Catamarca, La Pampa, Neuquén, Santa Cruz and San Luis will elect two new representatives.

Unión por la Patria is the political force that exposes the most seats (68), so its situation is the most delicate. It is followed by Juntos por el Cambio, which risks 49 (24 from the PRO, 18 from the UCR and the Civic Coalition with 7).

As Javier Milei estimated in the speech he gave in his bunker once the trends were consolidated, his performance puts La Libertad Avanza in a position to obtain 35 deputies in the next partial renewal of the Chamber of Deputies.

That will clearly place liberalism as the third force in the lower house, but the main fact is that it will grow exponentially if one takes into account that there are currently only three national deputies from his party (Victoria Villarroel, Carolina Píparo and himself).

Argentine News Agency

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