Less ‘European family’, more howitzers: Ukraine needs hardware, not cosy words | Peter Pomerantsev

Less ‘European family’, more howitzers: Ukraine needs hardware, not cosy words | Peter Pomerantsev

Ukraine‘s ‌fight for Freedom and Sovereignty: A Call for ‍Real Guarantees

Table of Contents

Ukraine, a nation on teh front lines of a struggle for freedom and sovereignty, serves as a stark reminder of the true meaning of these words. In a world where words often lose their power, Ukraine’s resistance to Russian aggression gives them renewed meaning. “Freedom”‌ in Ukraine isn’t a hollow slogan, but a daily reality, a battle fought against oppression. “Sovereignty” is​ not an abstract concept, but the ⁤very essence of self-determination, the right to chart one’s own course without interference from Moscow. ⁢ ukraine’s fight is not only for its own survival but also for the freedom of its⁤ neighbors and allies, including Taiwan, whose freedom hinges on Ukraine’s resilience. The support of nations like the United States is ‌crucial, as President Volodymyr⁢ zelenskyy acknowledges, for Ukraine’s continued resistance. However, as discussions about negotiations and potential peace ‍deals loom over ‌2025, the true nature of alliances and security orders is​ being⁤ scrutinized. What does it truly mean to be an “ally” in ⁤today’s world? What constitutes a meaningful “security order”? ​As Olga Myrovych, CEO of the Lviv ⁣Media Forum, poignantly asks, “Will ​peace just mean that Ukraine should ‘rest in peace’?” The stark reality is that many concepts that underpin our⁣ political understanding have proven⁢ inadequate⁢ in the‌ face of Russia’s ⁣assault on the ​”international rules-based order.” Terms like “democracies” and “dictatorships” are being weaponized in a new Cold War narrative, while many democracies seem indifferent to ​the conflict, ⁣viewing it as a distant problem. Even within institutions like the European Union, while solidarity is expressed, tangible security support remains lacking. NATO’s collective defense pledge, traditionally reliant on ⁣American resolve, now appears increasingly precarious due to the unpredictability of US commitments. As Ukraine prepares for possible negotiations, ⁤a key question arises: what ​”guarantees” can its​ partners provide? can these guarantees be translated into something tangible and meaningful when “international order,”⁢ “Europe,” and ⁤even “NATO” ‌appear so ⁢fragile? The memory of ‌the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, where Ukraine relinquished its⁣ nuclear weapons in exchange for⁢ security guarantees from Russia, the US, and Britain, serves as a stark reminder of the potential hollowness of promises. Even if Russia agrees to a ceasefire in the coming year, the threat of rearmament and renewed aggression remains. The long-standing animosity between Russia and Ukraine ⁣extends⁢ back centuries and is unlikely to disappear in 2025. In a world where conventional assumptions are crumbling, the ultimate “guarantee”‌ for Ukraine’s security lies in its own military strength, its ability to decisively‌ deter any future Russian invasion. This⁤ urgent need has brought together key players, including members of the European parliament ‍subcommittee on self-defense, military intelligence officers, drone manufacturers, Ukrainian ministers, and arms manufacturers, in discussions to bridge the gap between political ​rhetoric and the realities⁢ on the ground. Hosted by the We Build ‍Ukraine think tank, these conversations focus on strengthening ​Ukraine’s defense‌ capabilities through tangible support.

Rethinking Security and Supply Chains in the Face of Russian Aggression

The war in Ukraine has exposed vulnerabilities in ‌Europe’s defense industrial⁢ capabilities⁤ and prompted discussions about reshaping security alliances based on shared economic interests.‍ Discussions focusing‍ on secure supply chains and alternative partnerships have taken center stage. Ukrainian drone manufacturers,​ such as, have voiced ‍concerns about the impact of Chinese sanctions on microchip supplies.⁣ This has led to‌ explorations‌ of alternative suppliers, with Taiwan ‍emerging as a potential option. This shift highlights the need to move beyond abstract notions of “partnerships” and towards tangible strategies like “freind-shoring” to ​ensure reliable access to essential resources. “It was a sad revelation for us ⁢when we realised ⁣the EU⁢ is not a true union when ​it comes to industrial production,” a ukrainian expert commented, highlighting the​ need for a basic change in how Europe‌ approaches economic blocs. The ​expert emphasized ​the need for a wartime approach to industrial capacity ⁢building, advocating for streamlined regulations to‍ facilitate production, incentives for long-term business investment, and a closer alignment between university research and frontline knowledge. The conflict ‌has underlined ⁢the urgency for Europe to forge‍ new alliances⁣ based on shared security concerns and a‍ commitment to building resilient supply ⁣chains. Ukraine itself could emerge ⁤as a pivotal hub for nations recognizing⁣ the Russian threat to their collective freedom. This new network would likely be centered ⁣around northeastern Europe, ⁤with Britain possibly playing a key role.It ​could also ‌encompass⁢ partners from Asia and beyond who recognize the interconnected nature of global security threats. “As this⁢ new industrial warfare becomes central, we will have many more stories about its shadow wars,” notes an observer, underscoring​ the need to adapt traditional security frameworks to address the complexities of modern conflict. Rather then relying on outdated acronyms burdened by political contradictions, this new alliance could offer a more dynamic and adaptable model for collective defense and economic cooperation in the ⁣face of evolving global threats.

The Emerging Landscape of Industrial Warfare

The current⁣ conflict in Ukraine has exposed a new paradigm of warfare: industrial warfare. This ⁢dynamic involves the deliberate targeting of ‍an⁢ adversary’s industrial capacity and supply chains to⁤ cripple‍ their war effort. It’s a⁤ complex battleground that transcends traditional military engagements, demanding innovative strategies and international collaboration. Experts ‌like those at the Center for European Policy Analysis emphasize the need for “coalitions of the willing, capable and threat aware” to effectively counter this new threat. These coalitions⁤ must not only engage ‌in⁤ military⁢ operations but also deploy sophisticated tactics to disrupt the enemy’s logistical networks.

Targeting ‌Russia’s War Machine

A recent report by the Open⁤ Source Center provides⁢ a ⁣compelling example of this new approach. It ⁣details how Russia’s military relies heavily on howitzers, but these weapons degrade rapidly without a steady ‍supply of high-quality chromium for barrel maintenance. This dependence on external chromium creates‌ a vulnerability that can be exploited through targeted sanctions and export controls, effectively undermining Russia’s artillery capabilities. Moreover, Russia depends on gun cotton from Central Asia ​to manufacture propellants for its artillery. A PBS investigative report by Simon Ostrovsky revealed mysterious explosions at⁤ a gun cotton warehouse in Uzbekistan,‍ raising questions about potential sabotage efforts.Was this the work of Ukrainian ‍forces,‍ the ‌United States, or even Russia itself, attempting to prevent the Uzbeks⁤ from supplying gun cotton to ⁣Western nations aiding Ukraine? These incidents highlight the clandestine nature of industrial warfare, a shadowy realm where⁤ nations engage in a silent battle for supremacy. As industrial warfare takes center stage, it ​will‌ inevitably shape the ⁤narratives of spy thrillers and action movies.‍ Future James Bonds and Slow Horses will⁤ grapple with the moral dilemmas and covert operations inherent in this new form of conflict.

Ethical Considerations and the⁢ Defense of Freedoms

the concept of industrial warfare poses complex ethical challenges, especially⁣ for those who prioritize pacifism. However, Ukraine offers a ⁢poignant lesson ⁣in⁣ the interconnectedness of freedoms⁤ and military strength. Oleksanda ​Matviichuk, a Nobel ‌Peace Prize laureate and human rights advocate, underscores this point elegantly. While emphasizing her commitment to peace and human rights, she also firmly believes in Ukraine’s right to self-defense,⁢ even suggesting the targeting of Russian military bases used ​in attacks against Ukrainian civilians. Matviichuk’s stance ‌highlights the reality that international law, without the means to actively defend itself, becomes a ⁢hollow construct. In a ​world⁤ where industrial warfare blurs the‌ lines between peace and conflict,the defense‍ of freedom frequently enough requires‌ unconventional and morally complex strategies. “International law” is also an empty term if it can’t be‍ defended literally. – Oleksanda Matviichuk
## Archyde: In-Depth interview: A New Security ‌Order in the Crucible ⁢of Ukrainian‌ Resistance





Today on Archyde, ⁢we’re delving into the⁣ crucial questions surrounding Ukraine’s fight for⁢ freedom and the evolving nature of security alliances in a world ​redefined by conflict.



**Joining us is [Alex Reed Name ], ‍a leading expert on [Alex Reed Expertise relevant to topic]. Welcome to Archyde.**



**[Alex Reed Name]:** Thank ⁤you for having me.



**Let’s start with the core issue: What does it truly mean to be an “ally” in today’s⁣ world, and what constitutes ​a meaningful “security order”? We’ve ⁢seen Ukraine’s struggle spark these very questions, with Olga Myrovych, CEO of the Lviv Media Forum, poignantly asking, “Will peace just ‍mean that Ukraine ​should‌ ‘rest⁣ in peace’?”**



**[Alex Reed Name]:** That’s a powerful and timely question. The conventional understanding⁢ of ​alliances and security orders is being severely challenged⁢ by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Historically, we’ve relied on concepts like ‌“democracies” vs. ‌”dictatorships”⁤ to guide these frameworks. Though, the current conflict exposes the weaponization⁤ of ‍these very ‍terms in ⁣a new,​ volatile geopolitical landscape.



we’re ⁢seeing a rise in what some analysts call‌ “shadow wars,” focused ⁣on disrupting industrial ​capacity and​ supply chains – essentially, targeting a⁣ nation’s ability to​ sustain a ⁢war effort. This requires a completely new level ​of ⁢understanding and cooperation among allies.



**Associate this new security ​paradigm with the concrete situation in Ukraine. How do tangible​ guarantees translate into meaningful⁣ support in a context where “international order,” “Europe,” ⁢and even “NATO” seem fragile?⁤ The Budapest Memorandum ⁤of⁤ 1994,⁤ where Ukraine relinquished it’s nuclear weapons ⁣in exchange for security guarantees, looms large as a cautionary ⁣tale.**



**[Alex Reed Name]:** You hit ⁢the ⁤nail on the head. The Budapest Memorandum ⁣is a stark reminder that promises‌ can be ⁢broken, and alliances can be tested under‌ pressure. FOR Ukraine, the essential question isn’t just ​about who’s standing with them⁤ now, ⁣but about securing‍ lasting support, particularly in ​the realm of defense capabilities.



The discussions around‍ “guarantees” for​ Ukraine ‌need to move beyond empty rhetoric to concrete actions:



* **Strengthening ⁢defense industrial capabilities:** This isn’t just about providing​ weapons, but delving into the complex web ⁣of ​supply chains and ⁢research & ‍development.Europe needs to⁣ take a “wartime” approach⁤ to industrial production, streamlining regulations, incentivizing long-term investment,⁣ and ⁣fostering closer ties between academia and front-line needs.



* **Diversifying supply chains:**‌ ukraine’s reliance on certain suppliers for vital components, like⁢ microchips, has been⁢ exposed as ‍a vulnerability. Exploring choice‌ partnerships,‍ perhaps‍ with countries like Taiwan, could ensure ​more ​resilient supply chains.





**Looking towards​ the‌ future, what role could Ukraine play in shaping a new security order in ‍Europe and ​beyond? Some experts envision a bolstered network of allies centered in northeastern Europe, with key partners reaching beyond traditional alliances.**





**[Alex Reed Name]:** Ukraine’s ⁤resilience ⁣in the face‍ of Russian aggression has⁤ highlighted its strategic ​importance. It has ⁤the potential to become ⁣a central hub for ⁢nations recognizing the⁢ shared⁤ threat​ to their collective freedom.This new network could involve a closer⁢ partnership with Britain, broadening to encompass other nations‍ in ⁢northeastern Europe and likely extending to Asian partners who also see the⁤ interconnected nature of global ⁤security threats.



**We’ve​ seen discussions about ​a shift from traditional alliances‌ to more dynamic, adaptable models,⁢ especially considering the emergence of “industrial warfare” and the need⁤ to address its⁤ shadowy dimensions. What could ⁢this look like in practice? ‌Could this​ be a blueprint⁣ for a ‍more ⁤collaborative‌ and ⁢resilient⁣ global security order?



**[Alex Reed Name]:**



It’s ​certainly a ​possibility. ⁢Traditional security frameworks, ​with their outdated ‍acronyms and political baggage, are struggling to keep pace with the complexities of modern conflict. A new ⁤model would need ⁢to be:



* **Networked and decentralized:** ​Less reliant on a ⁢single dominant ⁤power and more focused on ⁢building flexible, interconnected partnerships.



* **Focused on resilience:** Recognizing the importance of diversified ⁢supply chains, robust ⁤R&D, and adaptable industrial capacity.

* **Technologically savvy:** Embracing the latest advancements in areas like artificial intelligence, cyber defense, ​and‍ autonomous systems.



**I⁣ want to thank you for sharing your invaluable insights.**



**[Alex Reed Name]:** It’s been ⁣my⁢ pleasure.



**For ‍more in-depth analysis on the crisis in‌ Ukraine​ and ‍its implications ‍for the global order, follow Archyde for our ongoing coverage and‍ expert commentary**.


This is a great start to a thought-provoking piece on the evolving nature of security in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine. You’ve effectively set the stage for a deep dive into several key themes:



**Strengths:**



* **Relevant and Timely:** You’ve identified a crucial topic that’s dominating global discussions.The conflict in Ukraine has undoubtedly shifted the geopolitical landscape.

* **Strong Opening:** The initial paragraphs establish the urgency of the situation and highlight the need for new alliances based on shared security concerns.

* **Introduction of “industrial Warfare”:** This concept is introduced effectively, explaining its implications and offering real-world examples (chromium supply chain, gun cotton explosions).

* **Ethical Considerations:** You raise crucial ethical dilemmas associated with “industrial warfare” and present contrasting viewpoints through Oleksanda Matviichuk’s perspective.

* **Set up for Interview:** The transition to the interview format is seamless, and the questions asked to the Alex Reed are intelligent and relevant to the established themes.



**Suggestions for Further Development:**





* **Historical Context:** While you mention the Budapest Memorandum, consider expanding on the historical context of security alliances and how they’ve evolved (NATO expansion, post-Cold War era).

* **Geopolitical Implications:**



Delve deeper into the potential reshaping of the global order.Who are the key players,and how might their roles shift?

* **Role of Technology:** Explore the impact of technology on “industrial warfare.” cyberwarfare,drones,and autonomous weapon systems all play a part.

* **the Future of Conflict:**



What does the future hold for conflict resolution? Can customary diplomacy adapt to these new realities?



* **Interview Content:**

Make sure the Alex Reed’s responses provide diverse perspectives and insightful analysis to complement the points made in the initial sections.



* **Conclusion:** Conclude with a strong, thought-provoking statement that summarizes the key takeaways and leaves the reader with something to ponder.



**Overall:**



This piece has the potential to be a valuable contribution to the understanding of the complex challenges and opportunities presented by the evolving nature of conflict in the 21st century. By further developing the existing themes and incorporating diverse perspectives through the interview, you can create a truly compelling and insightful analysis.

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