2024-09-04 09:30:31
By taking control of the city of Sudja, in the Russian oblast of Kursk, Ukraine has also seized one of the last transit points by pipeline for Russian gas to Europe. While gas continues to flow for the moment, prices have already exploded by 12% in August compared to the beginning of 2024! A finding that demonstrates once again that it is urgent for the EU to end its dependence on Russian gas.
When Russia began hostilities in February 2022, the EU was largely dependent on Russian fossil fuels, whether gas, oil or coal. But fortunately, the situation has changed and the figures speak for themselves. In an announcement dated April 12, 2024Ursula von der Leyen declared: “ Two years ago, one in five units of energy consumed in the European Union came from Russian fossil fuels. Today, it is one in twenty.
As for gas, in the same statement, the President of the European Commission announced: “that the share of gas imports from Russia fell from 45% before the war in Ukraine to 15% last year.”
Europe less dependent on Russian gas than in 2022
On paper, the EU would have indeed taken back control of its energy destiny. However, the situation is more complex than it seems. Although the EU is now only the third largest importer of Russian fossil fuels in the world, behind China and India, in 2023, it still imported 18 billion cubic metres of Russian gas via LNG carriers. Furthermore, although the EU has turned to Azerbaijan for part of its supplies, some of the gas sold by this country still comes from Russia!
The EU therefore remains partly dependent on Russian gas, which exposes it to shortages, but also to price increases.
Russian fuel sales remain higher than aid provided!
This dependence, although less strong than in 2022, has unfortunately paradoxical consequences. Because even if the EU provides financial aid to Ukraine, it remains lower than the amount paid to Russia for the purchase of its fossil fuels.
And the figures speak for themselves: according to the think tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), the EU has bought 200 billion euros worth of fossil fuels from Russia since the start of the invasion of Ukraine.
On the other hand, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimates the total amount of aid provided to Ukraine at 185 billion euros, including the EU and the USA! In fact, the EU is therefore financing Russia more than Ukraine…
Transit of Russian gas by pipeline via Ukraine: an uncertain future
The situation is unfortunately likely to get worse in 2025, as Ukraine has decided to terminate its gas transit contract with Russian energy company Gazprom. kyiv’s decision, if legitimate, is of great concern to the EU, as 15% of the gas consumed in Europe still transits through Ukraine!
Consequences for the EU’s gas supply and also for prices are therefore to be feared, because the use of alternatives such as importing LNG by ship will unfortunately generate additional costs which will impact the European market.
It is therefore vital that the EU continues its efforts to further reduce its dependence on Russian gas and achieve its objective of energy independence from Russia by 2027. A real challenge for some countries like Austria, almost all of whose gas comes from Russia!
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