For the first time since the start of the pandemic, yellow lights light up in front of François Legault while Éric Duhaime takes the opportunity to score points and perhaps even make gains in Quebec, according to a Léger poll –The newspaper.
• Read also: Pandemic management: Legault plunges Quebec into “darkness”, according to Anglade
The sounding carried out last weekend says a lot regarding the mood of voters, who might no longer stand the curfew, with 84% in agreement with its lifting.
At a time when Quebec is recording a record number of hospitalizations, the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) of François Legault suffers a decline of four points compared to the previous Léger poll published last month.
The government also sees the rate of satisfaction with it melt by five points.
“It’s really a yellow light that lights up for the government of the CAQ, illustrates the pollster Jean-Marc Léger. This is the first time since the start of the pandemic that we have seen this descent.”
Conversely, Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) is the one that benefits the most, with a gain of six points in voting intentions.
“Something is happening and if it continues, it can start to be dangerous,” believes the pollster.
The fall for the CAQ is 13% among 35 and 54 year olds and it is men (-6%) who are the most likely to turn their backs on François Legault.
Still in Quebec
Even if the CAQ still dominates, a more marked rise of the party of Éric Duhaime is observed in the metropolitan region of Quebec, where 22% of voters say they are ready to vote Conservative.
“Currently, it’s the only place where he might get people elected,” said Mr. Léger. In the rest of Quebec, the Conservative Party remains “still marginal”, considers the pollster.
What is unique, he is surprised, is to see five parties well in the saddle, which will split the vote. “And that, inevitably, is to the advantage of the CAQ,” believes Mr. Léger.
Legault still popular
Even in the midst of a storm, François Legault remains “still quite popular”, with 42% of voting intentions and 45% of voters who see him as the best prime minister, a verdict shared in particular by 36% of PQ members.
Dominique Anglade’s Liberal Party is still struggling with just 12% support among Francophones and 20% of voting intentions in general. The Parti Québécois finds itself face to face with the Conservatives, while Québec solidaire increases its score by a small point.
Result of the races: if elections had been held this week, the CAQ would probably have kept the majority of its seats in addition to obtaining more than in 2018.
“One thing is certain, the election is far from won for the CAQ,” nevertheless considers Mr. Léger.
The next campaign will therefore be “decisive”. “Currently, it’s a real battle for second place, notes the pollster. Who will be the alternative?
It remains to be seen whether any easing will curb the rise of the PCQ, “directly linked to the measures of recent weeks”, puts Jean-Marc Léger into perspective.
The health contribution is popular
The tax contribution for the non-vaccinated proposed last week by François Legault does not seem to pose a problem for most Quebecers.
Criticized by many experts for ethical or legal reasons, the idea of a health tax garners 61% support from the voters surveyed.
“The health tax still has popular support, summarizes the pollster Jean-Marc Léger. In principle, people agree. On the details, we will see later.
The details regarding this tax contribution will be specified in a bill promised for February.
The imposition of the vaccine passport at the SAQ as well as at the SQDC and, more broadly, compulsory vaccination, are also widely supported.
Just 4% outright anti-vaccine
The last stroke of Léger’s dream–The newspaper paints the typical portrait of anti-vaxxers, who are certainly noisy, but few in number.
All in all, the firm Léger observes that the hard core of Quebecers who will always refuse to be vaccinated amounts to approximately 4%. And that includes those who have a medical condition preventing them from getting vaccinated.
So who are the anti-vaxxers among the survey respondents? Most have no children and are poorly educated. It is also in the Conservative Party of Quebec that we find the most unvaccinated voters (27%).
“Three quarters of the members of the Conservative Party of Quebec are vaccinated. So it’s not just an anti-vaccine party. People are more frustrated with restrictive measures than with vaccination, ”notes Jean-Marc Léger.
METHODOLOGY
Web survey conducted among 1032 Quebecers aged 18 or over recruited randomly.
The data was collected from January 14 to 16, 2022.
Although it is not possible to calculate a margin of error on a sample drawn from a panel, for comparison purposes, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 1032 respondents is 3.1%, and this, 19 times out of 20.
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