Helped by the $500 he paid to taxpayers and the end of wearing a mask, François Legault recovered the support he had lost at the start of the year following the reconfinement and is sailing towards a landslide victory, but the Duhaime threat becomes more and more real for the CAQ in Quebec, reveals a Léger poll –The newspaper–TVA – OLD.
Nearly four months before the elections, the picture is beginning to take shape. Compared to April, François Legault gained three points among Francophones, to lose one among non-Francophones.
“It’s no stranger to the language debate,” says pollster Jean-Marc Léger.
Dominique Anglade, who demonstrated recently with Anglophones opposed to the reform of Bill 101, won only one point in the electorate in general, but obtained two among non-Francophones.
After two months of standing still with this clientele, its shift to better protect its traditional support is starting to pay off. Recall that in March, Ms. Anglade suffered a sharp decline of 13% among non-Francophones.
The PLQ is now at 48% of voting intentions with this group of voters, which is still far from the 70 to 80% of support that Philippe Couillard and Jean Charest won in the same category, recalls Mr. Léger.
Among Francophones, Ms. Anglade is collecting a meager 9% of support, which might result in the loss of a few ridings on the outskirts and in the west of Montreal.
The CAQ still dominant
In contrast, the CAQ is still extremely dominant among Francophones, with 53% of voting intentions, or “a huge lead” of 39 points over its closest opponent, which is Québec solidaire (14%), notes Mr. Light. Among those aged 55 and over, the CAQ garners 65% support (+8%).
The rate of satisfaction with the Legault government is also on the rise (+3%), in particular because most taxpayers have received the amount of $ 500 announced in the budget, believes the pollster.
Even the majority of respondents, who say they have used it to cover essential expenses (such as groceries or rent), ask for more.
Best Prime Minister of Quebec
46% of Quebecers would choose the CAQ of Legault.
Which of the following provincial political party leaders would make the best Premier of Quebec?
A date du May 22, 2022
CAQ
François
Legault
PCQ
Eric
Duhaime
QS
Gabriel
Nadeau Dubois
QLP
Dominique
English
PQ
Paul Saint Pierre
Plamondon
NSP / Refus : 22%
On average, 61% of Quebecers, all parties combined, would like the government to pay them an additional amount to deal with inflation, as the Prime Minister recently hinted.
A real fight in Quebec
In most regions of Quebec, “all the winning conditions are met for the CAQ”, summarizes the pollster.
The only downside for François Legault: in the Capitale-Nationale, the Conservative Party of Éric Duhaime seems to be settled in the 25% zone, with the largest number of decided voters.
“The strength of the Conservatives in Quebec is really significant,” considers Mr. Léger. But “its rise is limited”, since several of its militants, who are anti-systems, risk not going to vote.
The PCQ, which ranks third nationally, has still increased its support by 11 points among 35 to 54 year olds since April.
Québec solidaire and Gabriel Nadeau-
Dubois, who lost two points this month, are still first among 18 to 34 year olds, but young people are also less likely to go to the polls.
Among the Liberals as among the Solidarity, nearly one in two voters might still change their minds.
The PQ sinks into indifference
Once once more, the news is not very encouraging for the Parti Québécois, which, from one poll to another, “is more and more marginalized”, observes Mr. Léger.
The pollster also believes that the defeat of PQ star candidate Pierre Nantel, during the by-election in Marie-Victorin, confirms this trend.
The PQ leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, sinks into indifference: only 2% of respondents believe that he would make the best prime minister, while the other opposition leaders are almost tied (around 10%), far behind the chief caquiste (46%).
“The only opponent of François Legault is himself,” quips Mr. Léger.
METHODOLOGY : Web survey conducted from May 20 to 22, 2022 among 1,019 Quebecers aged 18 or over. It is not possible to calculate a margin of error on a sample drawn from a panel, but for comparison, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 1019 respondents is plus or minus 3.1%, and this 19 times out of 20.
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