The NFP would obtain between 172 and 215 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly (lower house), followed by the ruling alliance between 150 and 180 and the far-right party National Grouping (RN) and its allies with between 115 and 155, according to four different projections.
The results are a setback for the far-right leader Marine Le Penwhich fails in its attempt to achieve an absolute majority, which projections considered possible a week ago, and even to win, as It seemed possible two days ago.
“Our people have clearly rejected the worst possible scenario“, declared the radical left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, for whom the NFP, which lacks an absolute majority, must “govern”, but without “enter into negotiations“with Macron’s alliance.
The French president called for “prudence” following the first projections were released and assured that his centre-right alliance “is still very much alive”. “The question is who will govern from now on and achieve a majority,” he added.
The implicit pacts between the ruling party and the left-wing coalitionwhich consisted of concentrating the vote on the candidate with the greatest chance of defeating RN in each constituency, nevertheless frustrated the far-right victory.
An RN government, with the young Jordan Bardella at the helm, he would have been the first far-right politician in France since the Liberation of Nazi Germany during the Second World War and a new one in the European Union, together with Italy, among others.
Artists, athletes, unions and organizations have mobilized to stop the far right from coming to power, like the football star Kylian Mbappéwho had called for voting “on the good side” in these tense elections.
In the event of “disorders“The authorities announced the deployment of 30,000 police officers and gendarmes on Sunday evening, 5,000 of them in Paris.
But the results are also a blow to the 46-year-old president, who loses the simple majority he enjoyed since 2022 and will have to share power with a government that will not controlHis second term ends in 2027.
Scenarios
Proving that the election was crucial, the turnout (59.71% at 5:00 p.m.) was the highest since 1981, and even former Socialist President François Hollande returned to politics and won a seat in parliament.
Macron had brought forward the legislative elections scheduled for 2027 to ask the French for a political “clarification” following the victory of RN in the European elections on June 9, in a “risky” decision, according to analysts.
The voters’ response was to redirect the three blocs that emerged from the 2022 elections – left, centre-right and far-right – with a new balance of power and without absolute majorities.
With less than three weeks to go until the start of the Paris Olympics, uncertainty looms over the composition of the next government. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has already announced during the campaign that it will continue “as long as necessary.”
Several hypotheses are emerging: a difficult coalition between part of the left and the ruling party, or even a technocratic government with parliamentary support in the second largest economy in the EU.
However, a possible coalition seems unlikely given the cross-criticism between Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI, radical left), an important partner of the NFP, and the ruling party. During the campaign, Macron described this party as “anti-parliamentary” and “anti-Semitic”.
An alternative to LFI would be to integrate into this coalition the right-wing deputies of the Republicans (LR), who did not make a pact with RN. Their possible seats, between 57 and 67, might be crucial for a parliamentary alliance without the radical left.
The French president met with the prime minister and his allies in the followingnoon, before the first results were known, sources from his alliance indicated.
The first agreements might be reached as early as July 18, when the new deputies will have to elect the president of the National Assembly and the main positions in the lower house.
Both France’s allies and rivals on the international stage have been closely following the election, especially since Paris, a nuclear power, is one of the driving forces of the EU and one of Ukraine’s main supporters once morest Russia.
Visiting the Italian city of Trieste, Pope Francis warned on Sunday once morest “ideological and populist temptations,” without mentioning any country in particular.
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