2024-01-16 05:01:25
“Lebanon Debate” – Muhammad Al-Madani
After the “family” dinner that brought together the former head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, and the head of the “Marada Movement,” Suleiman Franjieh, we must remember one of Jumblatt’s most important conditions for adopting Franjieh’s candidacy for the presidency of the republic, which is that it be acceptable to one of the major Christian parties, i.e. “the movement.” The Free Patriotic Party or the Lebanese Forces Party.
Since the “Shiite duo” relies more on Bassil than Geagea, it is necessary to point out 5 reasons that prevent Bassil from electing Franjieh as President of the Republic, which are:
First, Basil fears the leadership of Franjieh in the north, as it directly affects him in his area of influence in Batroun, especially since the “Marada” movement has a large presence in the north, unlike the rest of the regions. The “Marada” movement previously had a representative for Batroun, and today they have a representative for the Bsharri region, which is William. collar.
Secondly, Basil wants for himself to be the only Christian-Maronite ally of the Shiites in Lebanon, and no one competes with him on this matter except Franjieh. Therefore, Basil cannot strengthen Franjieh’s position with the “Shiites,” because that would be at the expense of Basil, who tasted “Shiite pampering” from him. Hezbollah has been on hold for many years, since the Mar Mikhael Agreement.
Third, Bassil wants a president with a weak personality who can influence him to the point of controlling him. A president who needs to return to the political forces and to him specifically in all matters, while the personality of Suleiman Franjieh is a strong personality that cannot be influenced or manipulated.
Fourth, Bassil wants to get the lion’s share of the new “era,” in terms of ministers, appointments, and the final say in major affairs, and this is not possible except through a weak president who needs an umbrella and which he believes is providing it for him, while Franjieh will be a partner president alongside the prime minister and the prime minister. The Parliament does not need to seek cover here and there.
Fifthly, Bassil wants to remain a point of interest from external powers on the basis that he is the focus of decisions and roles in the political structure, and this is precisely what he is selling to the Qataris, and what he cannot prolong unless he brings in a president loyal to him, while Franjieh’s arrival makes him the first point of interest for foreigners, including Qatar did not need him, and it was the last country that was still giving special attention to Bassil.
Although the “duo” offered its guarantee for an agreement between Basil and Franjieh regarding his status and partnership in the next era, Basil’s exclusive way of ruling, as he demonstrated during the era of his uncle, General Michel Aoun, and his difficulty in accepting his actual participation in the decision, makes him reject Franjieh, because, as Joseph Aoun He does not fall into the category of weak and obedient presidents whom he aspires to, as long as he does not have a direct chance at the presidency.
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