All the current indications, from the financial chaos to the political conflict over the presidential and governmental file, and the judicial and political tensions over the steps of the judicial investigator Tariq Al-Bitar and the Public Prosecutor of Cassation, Judge Ghassan Oweidat, are all matters indicating that Lebanon has entered the most dangerous juncture since the outbreak of the October 17 revolution, which raises questions regarding the direction. What things will reach amid expectations that the current events will be a prelude to the occurrence of chaos before entering the settlement stage, which is being talked regarding without knowing its details yet.
Getting into the details of the judicial conflict is a complex process in light of the division in a step-by-step approach by Judge Al-Bitar and Judge Oweidat between those who consider that there is a systematic plan to swallow the investigation and obstruct the work of the judicial investigator by releasing detainees with malicious and political decisions and those who believe that Al-Bitar is implementing agendas following his sudden return following a hiatus For long months due to certain backgrounds, especially since it coincided with international investigations with financial files and the mission of the French delegation that follows up the port investigations and had meetings with politicians and with Judge Al-Bitar himself before the latter submitted summons to security and politicians.
However, the financial file is as dangerous as the judicial file, and remains the most dangerous with the skyrocketing dollar price, which confirms that Lebanon is on the verge of entering the Venezuelan scenario, which is very close.
What Lebanon is going through today, as confirmed by political and economic experts, is not strange or exceptional in the history of countries that have gone through circumstances similar to the current Lebanese crisis… Venezuela is a “living witness” and a model very close to the situation we have reached recently.
With record speed, the collapse occurred in Venezuela, which turned from a rich country with the largest oil reserves in the world into a poor country where inflation rates reached high levels and per capita income decreased to six dollars. It seems that Lebanon is following the same economic and social path, and the similarities are great with the Venezuelan scenario of The collapse of the national currency, the rise in fuel prices, the hospitalization, and the loss of salaries in their purchasing value.
The collapse prompted Venezuelans, following the deterioration of the Bolívar, to flock to stores and supermarkets to stock up on materials and to the street. Theft and crime rates increased, and as a result of the exacerbation of the situation without solutions, millions left to escape from the social hell to neighboring countries, and this is what happened with the increase in immigration rates in Lebanon.
The comparison shows a great similarity, as experts confirm. In practice, the emigration rates of young people and families increased dramatically following the October 17 uprising, and the minimum wage approached ten dollars, and it is expected to reach the Venezuelan level for a few dollars soon.
The picture until today looks like an exact copy, with one difference, which is that the security situation is under control.
The Venezuelan scene has progressed a lot, and the comparison does not show a significant difference. In Venezuela, traditional foods have decreased and disappeared from the shelves, and Venezuelans’ food lacks iron and vitamins. As for Lebanon, “the rich eat, stay up late, enter the hospital, and fill their tank with petrol,” while the middle class has disappeared and the purchasing power of the Lebanese has shrunk.
Nevertheless, many assert that the reality of Lebanon is more dramatic and more difficult and complex, because Lebanon is a plundered country that is under a large financial deficit and does not possess oil and minerals and the economic power of Venezuela, and it has its own political problems in the presence of Palestinian refugees and displaced Syrians.
The factors of collapse are very similar. Venezuela suffered as a result of the American blockade and reckless and wrong policies, while the Lebanese paid the price for the corruption of the political class, the conflict of axes, the spread of corruption, and the failed government measures.
The Venezuelan model is no longer just a title. Lebanon has actually transformed from “the Switzerland of the East into the Venezuela of the East” following the waste, the financial and economic stumbling blocks, and the random policies.
Practically, Lebanon has entered the first phase of a major collision in the form of successive shocks that will explode soon. The greatest fear remains of security developments and escalation in the street. Warnings of the dangers of many scenarios abound.
