2023-06-17 21:15:03
The Lebanese-international engagement might expand in the next stage. The Lebanese reactions to the Brussels conference and the position of European countries regarding the file of Syrian refugees and the consideration that conditions for their safe return are not available, in light of the firm position of refusing normalization with the Syrian regime, necessitated violent Lebanese responses that reached the limits of attacking the foreign policy official in the European Union, Josep Borrell. . This clash will be a permanent title in an open track throughout the next stage, especially since Lebanon seems insistent on working towards the return of batches of refugees. However, the conflict between Lebanon and the international community will not be limited to this file. As Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib began a campaign through a tour of all the ambassadors of Western countries, especially the influential countries in the Security Council, and the countries participating in the international emergency forces in the south, in order to amend the paragraph that was added last year to the tasks of the international emergency forces.
Power struggle
At every station related to the UN Security Council’s discussion of the renewal of UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon, escalating international positions emerge on the need to expand the powers of the international emergency forces and enhance their capabilities, in addition to expanding the margin of their movement in a way that does not need coordination with the Lebanese army, and enables them to move outside the scope of Resolution 1701, that is to move north of the Litani River, not just south of it. Lebanon has long objected to this. Last year, specifically in the 31st session of August, which is the annual date for the extension of the international emergency forces, a new paragraph was added to the text of the extension decision, which stipulates that UNIFIL forces have freedom of movement in southern Lebanon to ensure security and stability, and that they are able to move in different regions without coordination or obtaining permission from any Lebanese party. After the decision was issued, violent stances were issued by Hezbollah officials rejecting it, and internal political problems arose over who bears responsibility for this decision, while the Lebanese government disavowed it.
The repercussions of the attack on the Irish patrol
In practice, this amended decision has become the basic reality that governs the mechanism of the international forces’ operation in the south. Perhaps one of its consequences on the Lebanese scene was the attack on an Irish patrol operating within the International Emergency Forces, which led to the killing of one of its members and the wounding of two others. With this process, I want the borders of the movement of international forces to be demarcated, while Lebanon is currently working to obtain a comprehensive international position by the diplomatic officials representing the active countries in the Security Council to cancel that paragraph, and return to what the situation was before, that is, for the international emergency forces to move accompanied by Lebanese army and following obtaining permission. This prompts a return to the pre-extension stage for these forces, when the United States of America threatened more than once to stop providing financial support to international forces as long as they are unable to perform their work. Such rhetoric will escalate once more in the next stage, especially following a series of developments in southern Lebanon, and the most important thing that will fuel it is the attack on the Irish patrol, and the indictment issued by Judge Fadi Sawan accusing Hezbollah of being responsible for the incident. Note that the Lebanese officials consider that they have established the rules of understanding on the mechanism of work with the UNIFIL command, and there is constant coordination with the army command.
international dissatisfaction
In this context, Western diplomatic sources indicate that there is international dissatisfaction with the official Lebanese handling of many files, the first of which is the rocket launch incident from southern Lebanon towards the occupied territories. To Hezbollah’s massive military maneuver in the south, noting that it took place in the Armati region, i.e. outside the scope of action of Resolution 1701, and not an end to what the Kfar Shuba region witnessed in the past period of protest movements through which Lebanese civilians sought to remove the barbed wire and bypass it under the slogan of being able to cross into the lands occupied and seeking to liberate it.
pressure to cut aid
From now until the date of the renewal of the International Emergency Forces, many in Lebanon will follow the rhythm of these files and the contradictory positions that will revolve around them between the internal forces, and with the outside as well, especially in light of Western and American pressures aimed at reducing the percentage of aid provided by Europeans and Americans to many associations. and institutions operating in Lebanon.
Also in the context, the information indicates that multiple negative signals must be expected from the US and Europe in response to the Lebanese handling of all these files, and such signs may appear next week, either in the form of sanctions or in the form of clear and direct messages from Congress.
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