Jean-Luc Mélenchon has been saying it for more than a year: he will have to be counted on during the final stretch of the presidential campaign. Two weeks before the first round, the Popular Union candidate, who calls himself a “sagacious turtle”, benefits, in fact, from a dynamic that places him in third place in terms of voting intentions, behind Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen: Mr. Mélenchon reaches 14% (margin of error of plus or minus 0.7 points ), an increase of 2 points since mid-March. He passes in front of the far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour who loses 1.5 points over the same period (11.5%, margin of error of plus or minus 0.7 points).
Marine Le Pen remains in second position and continues to progress: she gains 1.5 points to reach 17.5% (margin of error of plus or minus 0.8 point). The presidential candidate, meanwhile, continues to settle, even if he is still largely in the lead, with 28% (down one point, margin of error of plus or minus 1 point). These are the main lessons from the eighth wave of the survey carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria in partnership with the Sciences Po Political Research Center (Cevipof) and the Jean Jaurès Foundation, to The world.
The strength of our panel is its amplitude, since the sample used is 13,269 people. Voting intentions in the first round are calculated from respondents “certain to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, or 8,552 people. Result: the margins of error for the first round are very low, between 0.1 and 1 point. The survey was carried out from March 21 to 24, ten days following the previous one. The dynamics observed are all the more remarkable.
Mélenchon wants to convince the hesitant on the left
The theory of “mouse hole” to qualify for the second round, put forward by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, would it be possible? Even if Mr. Macron and Mr.me Le Pen always distance the deputy of Bouches-du-Rhônes, his supporters want to believe it. According to them, the surprise is possible thanks to the mechanism of the useful vote. The mélenchonistes prefer to speak of “effective voting”but the idea is the same: to suck in the voters of the other left-wing candidates and some of the abstainers by agitating the hope of a presence in the second round, capable of thwarting all the forecasts.
Moreover, the progression of Mr. Mélenchon is partly explained by vote transfers coming as well from the voters of Fabien Roussel, Yannick Jadot as from Anne Hidalgo. Clearly, regardless of the differences and even the antipathy that Jean-Luc Mélenchon can arouse among some French people. It is the best placed, so you have to amplify its dynamics to beat the extreme right to the post. The entire campaign strategy of the former socialist senator is geared towards this objective.
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