2024-08-20 06:30:28
In 2023, China launched construction of solar and wind power projects that are more than double the number of installations started in the rest of the world. With this growth rate, it could triple its capacity by 2030, but it still faces some obstacles.
Exceptional growth in renewable energy. According to a study published by the American NGO Global Energy Monitor (GEM), China has started construction of the equivalent of 180 GW (Gigawatt) of solar energy and 159 GW of wind energy on its territory in 2023, more than double the total number of projects started in the rest of the world. It is clearly positioning itself as a world leader in this field and another figure alone illustrates the active nature of its commitment: the construction rate. While at the global level, 7% of large-scale solar and wind projects planned are under construction, China has started a third of them.
According to the Chinese administration, the country’s total solar and wind capacity will reach 1,120 GW by the first quarter of 2024. GEM estimates it to be 758 GW. Despite this lower-than-announced level of development, renewables now account for 37% of the country’s total electricity capacity, an 8% increase from 2022. And they are expected to significantly surpass coal capacity in 2024, which currently stands at 39%.
Solar power production capacity surpassed wind power for the first time in 2022, and the gap has been widening ever since. The strong attractiveness of solar power in the energy market is due to low investment costs, ease of installation and strong political support. In 2023, almost half of the additional solar power was installed on the roofs of residential buildings.
With this massive expansion, China could easily reach 1,200 GW of installed wind and solar capacity by the end of 2024, six years ahead of President Xi Jinping’s commitment and a year ahead of GEM’s forecast announced last year. Although the country never signed on to the COP28 commitment to triple renewables, GEM estimates that “If wind and solar continue to grow at the rate of 200 GW per year, as Chinese officials claim, tripling renewable capacity by the end of 2030, based on a 2020 baseline of 934 GW, is well within reach, even without any new hydropower additions.”
China’s CO2 emissions may peak in 2023
The scale of potential capacity being developed in China supports the prediction that carbon emissions from the electricity sector could peak earlier than the promised timetable of “before 2030.” According to a study According to a study by a researcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, 90% of the additional demand for electricity is currently being offset by wind and solar generation, as well as by the decline in housing construction activity. She even suggests that: ” China’s CO2 emissions may peak in 2023, provided clean energy construction is maintained at last year’s record levels.
This intense growth in renewable energy is nevertheless facing certain difficulties, one of which concerns the increase in storage capacities to cope with the intermittency of the production of these energies. It appears that the Chinese network still relies heavily on coal-fired power plants to mitigate fluctuations in electricity production. “For example, the construction plan for the second wave of wind and solar megabases for the period 2021 to 2025 foresees that 30% of the planned capacity must come from coal power, including 28 GW linked to the opening of new extraction sites, of which 10 GW are already under construction”details the GEM.
Electricity transmission is another challenge for China, as solar and wind power are widely deployed in the north and northwest regions and rely heavily on ultra-high-voltage transmission lines to supply electricity in the central, southern and eastern regions. However, there are currently only ten transmission lines under construction or in the pipeline, which is far from enough to accommodate the growing renewable energy demand. Delays in the completion of transmission lines are therefore a bottleneck for wind and solar power transmission.
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