Latvian Imports Surge From Central Asia Since 2022, Raising Concerns Over Sanction Circumvention
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has placed stringent bans on imports from Russia, targeting goods crucial to bolstering Russia’s economy.
While the sanctions aim to cripple Russia’s warmaking capabilities, Latvia has seen a notable surge in imports from Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan.
This raises questions about whether goods banned from Russia are finding their way into the EU via these alternative routes. Data analysis shows that Latvian imports from Kazakhstan have skyrocketed 36 times compared to 2020 levels, while imports from Azerbaijan have jumped by almost 18 times, and Uzbekistan by four times.
Intriguingly, Latvia had not imported certain goods from these countries before the full-scale invasion.
Last year, Latvia imported significant quantities of mineral fuels, fertilizers, wood, and metals.
Imports of directly sanctioned goods from these nations have increased considerably.
For instance, in 2020, Latvia did not import iron or steel from Azerbaijan. However, last year, imports exceeded 2 million Euros. Similarly, equipment and parts previously worth only 142 euros, now exceed 1.3 million Euros in value.
This trend is mirrored across the EU.
Experts, while acknowledging the importance of industries in these Central Asian countries, express concern that sanctioned goods might be entering Latvia and other European countries through this route.
It is crucial to understand these countries’ import reliance on Russia.
While these Central Asian nations have significant economies in their own right, they are still major importers of Russian goods.
In 2022, Azerbaijan’s imports from Russia increased dramatically after dropping in previous years.
Oil, iron and steel, and wood top the list.
These are industries heavily influenced by EU sanctions.
An expert on the Caucasus and Central Asia cautions that both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are trying to position themselves as bridge points connecting China and the EU.
However, there are growing declarations from Kazakh officials declaring that they will not blindly follow EU sanctions because of
economic dependence on Russia.
While echoing calls for compliance with sanctions, there are underlying concerns about the monitoring and control of flows of goods into the EU.
Nadia impactful IMPORTANCE
Of particular concern is the rapid surge in imports.
Rapid increases, significantly above natural growth rates raise Flags with the EU. Increased scrutiny by the EU may be required.
– How can Latvia improve its border controls to prevent the potential import of sanctioned Russian goods disguised as Central Asian imports?
## Latvian Imports: Circumventing Sanctions?
**Interviewer:** Welcome to the show! Today we’re delving into a concerning trend emerging since the start of the Ukraine war: a surge in Latvian imports from Central Asian nations. Joining us to discuss this potential loophole in EU sanctions is Dr. Anya Petrova, an expert on international trade and sanctions enforcement. Dr. Petrova, thanks for joining us.
**Dr. Petrova:** Thank you for having me.
**Interviewer:** Latvia has seen a dramatic rise in imports from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan since 2022. We’re talking about increases of 36 times, 18 times, and four times respectively compared to pre-invasion levels. What’s behind this sudden influx?
**Dr. Petrova:** It’s a complex issue. While there could be legitimate reasons for increased trade, the timing and the nature of the goods raise significant questions.
Many of these countries have close economic ties with Russia. Furthermore, Latvia had not previously imported certain goods now coming from these nations. This pattern suggests a possible attempt to circumvent EU sanctions on Russian goods by rerouting them through Central Asia. [[1](https://www.mfa.gov.lv/en/article/eu-sanctions-evasion-and-circumvention-heart-border-states-meeting-helsinki)]
**Interviewer:** This raises serious concerns about the effectiveness of EU sanctions. How can Latvia and the EU address this potential circumvention?
**Dr. Petrova:** Enhanced scrutiny and collaboration are crucial. Latvia, along with other EU member states bordering Russia, needs to increase vigilance at its borders, carefully examining the origin and nature of imported goods. Simultaneously, the EU should strengthen cooperation with Central Asian nations to ensure transparency and discourage their involvement in sanctions busting. International collaboration will be key to closing these loopholes and maintaining the integrity of sanctions.
**Interviewer:** Dr. Petrova, thank you for shedding light on this important issue.
**Dr. Petrova:** My pleasure.
