2023-07-02 05:12:22
Economic news12:08pm2023-07-02
The Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) and Nikkei released the results of a daily survey of economists and analysts from five major ASEAN economies – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, as well as India. On June 2-23, said economists and analysts had cut their forecasts for economic growth in the five ASEAN countries to 4.2% this year from the 4.4% growth expected in a survey conducted last month. Mar. being dragged by Singapore and Indonesia economies
Indonesia, which is the largest economy in ASEAN The economic growth forecast was cut from the previous 5% forecast to 4.9% this year on fears of a global economic slowdown. Especially the economic slowdown in China. Because China is an important export market for ASEAN.
Singapore’s economic growth forecast was cut from the previous forecast of 2.1% to 1.3% this year.
However, the JCER slightly raised its economic growth forecast for Thailand from 3.7% to 3.8% this year, while the Philippines revised up its forecast from 5.6% to 5.9. % this year and maintains Malaysia’s economic growth forecast at 4.4% this year.
United Overseas Bank’s Alvin Liu said: “We see Singapore as highly vulnerable to a technical recession in the first half of 2023, largely under pressure from weak manufacturing. ”
In addition to the weak Chinese economy Economists also view the impact of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy as another key risk factor for ASEAN. Because higher interest rates will drag the economy.
Another factor increasingly seen by many economists as a major risk factor is “Political instability,” especially in Thailand where “Political instability” emerged as the number one risk in the latest survey. This is up from second place in the previous survey.
The JCER said that despite the Kao Klai party winning the general election in May, But until now it is uncertain whether the party will be able to form a new government. This raised concerns among business groups about the process of transferring executive power to the new government and the continuity of policies in managing the country.
“Political problems in Thailand Especially about the establishment of a new government. May cause uncertainty in the forecast of the Thai economy.
Lalita Thienprasit from the Kasikorn Research Center
By InfoQuest News Agency (02 Jul. ’23)
Tags: JCER, Economy
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