The strong dollar storm continues to spread, not only the financial turmoil in emerging markets is regarding to come, but even the notebook industry, which has been booming in the past two years, has also encountered the coldest winter in history. According to our survey, the notebook industry has become a hot potato due to the shock of terminal purchases. The sales promotion campaign, which used to wait until Double 11, is a full season ahead of schedule. “We can only try our best to clear inventory and prepare for winter.” The industry said frankly that this ice storm has spread from brand factories upwards, including foundry, components, panels and even the semiconductor industry, all of which have lived a hard life.
According to our survey, black swan factors such as war and high inflation have frozen global consumption power. In the past two years, the epidemic has driven the home economy, and the laptop sales boom triggered by the epidemic has been brought back to its original shape. Coupled with the rapid interest rate hikes in various countries, consumers’ wallets have changed. Thinner, bear the brunt of the shrinking consumer electronics market. “The computer industry should fasten their seat belts and work hard to finish the second half of the year. Let’s talk regarding next year.” Chen Junsheng, chairman of Acer, who has always been prophesied by God, has a very conservative view on the future prosperity, and Lin Baili, chairman of Quanta, reminded his colleagues, ” In the face of next year, it is conservative, I would rather be a little more conservative.”
“The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates continuously, and the Ukraine-Russia war has been fought for half a year, and everyone is optimistic regarding the next boom.” The senior analyst shook his head and said, coupled with the impact of the interruption of Russian natural gas delivery in Europe, the energy bill has greatly increased. Four people will increase by 500 euros per month, not to mention the high inflation in the United States, where all kinds of livelihood products are twice as expensive, and the purchase of high-consumption laptops has become the first choice for deletion. “Many companies that see the bad economy have also frozen personnel and cut spending on technology, which is equivalent to pouring cold water on the commercial market. Not to mention that some countries are in debt crisis, and government procurement is frozen.” A brand manager sighed.
According to TrendForce’s latest forecast, the shipments of laptops in the second half of this year declined compared to the first half of the year, and the annual shipments of laptops were revised down to only 191 million units, a 20% decrease from last year. “Before the epidemic, the annual shipment of notebook computers was 160 million units. In the past two years, due to the epidemic, the shipment volume has exploded to 240 million units, which is equivalent to an increase of more than 50%. In addition, the shortage of chips and the problem of transportation congestion have led to overbooking by the industry ( Overbooking), once the market reverses, the inventory that originally wanted to sell well will form a tsunami counterattack.” Analyst Huang Shufen said without shyness.
In addition, global shipping has returned to normal, and the channel has changed from not being able to order goods to instantly filling up warehouses. Asus, Acer, and the five OEMs Quanta, Compal, Pegatron, Wistron and Inventec, the second season of Inventory levels have reached record highs. Among them, Quanta soared to 254.3 billion yuan, up 55% compared to last year; followed by Asustek’s 217.2 billion yuan, which also increased by 57%. “This wave of inventory adjustment may take a year.” Hong Chunhui, director of the Institute of Industrial Intelligence, said.
The dividends of the epidemic have receded, and brand factories have adjusted their orders one following another. HP’s 5-degree revision was the most intense. Recently, Intel released the 13th generation processor, which in the past means that there will be a wave of replacements, but this year includes HP, Dell, and Lenovo. With Asus, there is still a tank of 11th-generation processors waiting to be digested, and I didn’t expect to enter the 13th-generation new products.
When it comes to inventory issues, Chen Junsheng has repeatedly hinted that high inventory has the risk of falling prices, and Acer does not want to play the financial game of falling prices. He jumped on the front line to rescue, hoping to reduce losses. On the one hand, he took strict audits on the upstream supply chain to ensure that the inventory would not be repeated orders. On the other hand, he hired celebrity endorsements to boost the sales of new product lines, and the main sales were from Europe and the United States. Move back to the Asia-Pacific market, and attack the commercial market that holds the bid niche.
As for Asustek, another brand factory whose inventory in the second quarter was three times higher than that of Acer, it would take half a year to sell out the inventory. Dong Zuo Shi Chongtang shouted internally that the inventory level should be reduced by at least 50 billion yuan before the end of the year, and he also started promotions in advance from August. The price of new products launched in April this year has been cut by 30%. “The decline in inventory in the third quarter is in line with expectations, and the inventory cut of 50 billion by the end of the year should be successfully achieved.” ASUS executives revealed.
Brand factories have shown their magic powers to clear their inventories, and the storm has spread from brand owners to manufacturers. Although Quanta, Compal, Wistron and other foundries have handed over good report cards in September, the fifth electronic brother still Everyone shouted bitterly. Wistron said that the fourth quarter might not be seen. Compal predicted in advance that the shipment of notebook computers this year would decrease by 20% year-on-year. It will take at least three seasons to digest.”
The only bright spots in Taiwan’s foundry industry are Hon Hai and Pegatron, which are Apple’s OEMs, especially Hon Hai, which is in the shipping period due to the big sales of Apple’s iPhone 14 series. Revenue in September surged to 823.3 billion yuan, an 83% monthly growth rate, and was even more eye-catching than the second-highest record of 717.5 billion yuan in December last year. “Hon Hai shipped new phones a month earlier than Pegatron, and its revenue was the fastest. Pegatron will follow in October. Next, Apple’s new laptops will also be shipped, and Quanta will also perform well.” Analyst observation .
In addition to Hon Hai and Pegatron, which enjoy the sweetness of apples, upstream notebook OEMs and parts factories, such as driver IC factories Novatek and Duntai, Bi IC factories Maoda and Zhixin, memory companies Nanya Ke, Jinghao Ke, etc. The industry is crying hard, but TSMC is still able to raise prices once morest the trend, becoming an anomaly in the technology industry. “Now that downstream manufacturers don’t buy goods, panel manufacturers have to shut down production capacity so that prices can stabilize first, but upstream IC designers have to face TSMC’s price increase, which can be regarded as the worst group.” The senior semiconductor industry said. “Since the first quarter of this year, driver ICs have fallen for a long time, and the demand is very weak, so prices continue to kill. If the economy is not good, TSMC will continue to increase prices, and IC design manufacturers will die.”
After two consecutive years of prosperous laptop feasts, there is no going back. How the supply chain of Taiwan factories should face the harsh winter days of high inventory and low demand will test the wisdom of the bosses.
More Mirror Weekly coverage
【Full Text】The global notebook computer recession hit the supply chain of Taiwan factories
[Laptop Inventory Storm 1]Laptop clearance battle starts early, and Best Buy sale price is less than $100
[Laptop Inventory Storm 2]Lin Baili: Conservative and conservative in the laptop industry next year
