Reporter Gao Yifan reports from Taipei on the latest poll results for the upcoming 2024 presidential election. New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi, who had previously been hesitant to declare his candidacy, has seen a sharp decline in support according to multiple polls. In the recent “ETtoday Poll Cloud” survey released on the 25th, Hou’s support fell by 7.8% to 27.6%, while Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Lai Qingde rose 4.8% to 34.2%, taking the top spot, and People’s Party Chairman Ke Wenzhe’s support declined by 6.3% to 16.9%.
The same poll also noted that in a three-way race between Hou Youyi, Lai Qingde, and Ke Wenzhe, if the Kuomintang enlists Hou to run once morest the other two, Lai Qingde would have a comfortable lead with 34.2% support, followed by Hou at 27.6% and Ke at 16.9%.
However, if the Kuomintang decides to nominate Gou Taiming, founder of Hon Hai Group, to run once morest Lai Qingde and Ke Wenzhe, Lai would still hold a solid lead with 35.8% support, followed by Gou at 22.7% and Ke at 15.2%.
If Ke Wenzhe chooses not to run, and it becomes a two-way race between Hou Youyi and Lai Qingde, the two are neck and neck with 39.3% and 37.0% support, respectively. Similarly, if Gou Taiming runs in place of Hou, Lai Qingde would still hold a slight lead with 38.4% support over Gou’s 36.4%.
Notably, Lai Qingde’s popularity has risen since the previous survey in November 2022, with a 4.8% increase in support. Meanwhile, both Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe have seen drops in support by 7.8% and 6.3%, respectively. Polls suggest that Lai Qingde’s support is likely to continue rising, while Hou Youyi remains uncommitted, and Ke Wenzhe’s popularity declines further.
The “2024 Presidential Candidate Survey” conducted by “ETtoday Poll Cloud” sampled 1,255 valid responses from people over the age of 20 from March 20-22, with a sampling error of plus or minus 2.77% at the 95% confidence level.
Reporter Gao Yifan / Report from Taipei
▲Lai Qingde, Hou Youyi, Ke Wenzhe Poll (Photo/Provided by “ETtoday Poll Cloud”)
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The 2024 presidential election is approaching. New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi, who has been reluctant to declare his candidacy, has recently shown a sharp decline in the support of many polls. According to the poll released by “ETtoday Poll Cloud” today (25th), Hou fell 7.8% to 27.6% once more; Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Lai Qingde rose 4.8% to 34.2%, ranking first; People’s Party Chairman Ke Wenzhe declined 6.3% to 16.9%.
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“ETtoday Poll Cloud” pointed out that if the Kuomintang recruits Hou Youyi to run for election, once morest Lai Qingde of the Democratic Progressive Party and Ke Wenzhe of the People’s Party, in the case of a three-person confrontation, Lai Qingde’s support rate is 34.2%, Hou Youyi’s support rate is 27.6%, and Ke Wenzhe’s support rate is 16.9% %, the gap between the top two is 6.6%.
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If the Kuomintang enlists Gou Taiming, the founder of Hon Hai Group, to stand for the election, in a confrontation between Lai Qingde and Ke Wenzhe, Lai Qingde’s support rate is 35.8%, Gou’s support rate is 22.7%, and Ke Wenzhe’s support rate is 15.2%. The gap between the top two is 13.1%.
If Ke Wenzhe does not run for the election, forming a green-blue duel, Hou Youyi’s support rate is 39.3%, Lai Qingde’s support rate is 37.0%, and the support rate is within the error range; if Guo Taiming is elected instead, Lai Qingde’s support rate is 38.4%, and Guo Taiming’s support rate is 36.4%. Also within the margin of error.
It is worth noting that, compared with the previous survey of the poll (November 2022), Lai Qingde’s popularity has risen, and his support has increased by 4.8%, while Hou Youyi’s support has dropped by 7.8%, and Ke Wenzhe has also dropped by 6.3%. Polls pointed out that Lai Qingde is expected to have a rising support, Hou Yin is unwilling to express his opinion, and Ke is not showing much. Both of them are showing a downward trend.
“ETtoday Poll Cloud” conducted the “2024 Presidential Candidate Survey” for people over the age of 20 from March 20 to 22, and recovered 1,255 valid samples. The sampling error was plus or minus 2.77% at the 95% confidence level.
▲ Lai Qingde’s polls have been promoted, while Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe’s support has declined (Photo/provided by “ETtoday Poll Cloud”)
As the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan approaches, the latest poll results released by “ETtoday Poll Cloud” have shown significant shifts in popularity among the potential candidates. While Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Lai Qingde has risen in support, New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi and People’s Party Chairman Ke Wenzhe have seen a decline. The poll also suggests that if the Kuomintang recruits Hon Hai Group founder Gou Taiming to run, it might potentially change the dynamics of the election. It remains to be seen how these changes will play out in the upcoming election, but they offer valuable insight into the current political landscape in Taiwan.
