2024-01-15 07:07:12
- Rupert Wingfield-Hayes
- BBC reporter from Taiwan
January 15, 2024 7:01 am
image copyrightGetty Images
Image caption,
Lai Qingde
Beijing calls him a “troublemaker” and a dangerous “separatist”. Now he will become Taiwan’s next president.
China’s claim to Taiwan is not new – China considers the island part of its territory and Xi Jinping has made reunification of the island a goal. China’s threats to Taiwan have escalated over the past year.
Yet despite China’s repeated warnings not to vote for the current ruling Democratic Progressive Party, millions of Taiwanese went to the polls on a sunny Saturday to cast their votes.
They elected Lai Ching-te, a 64-year-old current vice president and doctor-turned-politician, to lead Taiwan in its tense relationship with China.
This is an unprecedented third re-election for the Democratic Progressive Party, which, in China’s view, is too close to its unquestionable red line – Taiwan independence.
How Lai responds to Beijing, and how Beijing responds to him, will define his presidency.
Tsai Ing-wen 3.0? Or a new beginning?
Lai Ching-te promised that his term would be a continuation of the eight-year term of his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen.
Even in his speech on Saturday, he chose his words carefully and proposed dialogue and cooperation.
During the campaign, he repeatedly repeated Tsai Ing-wen’s statement that “there is no need to declare independence because Taiwan is already an independent and sovereign country – its name is the Republic of China – Taiwan.”
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Taiwan election: Lai Ching-te successfully elected to break the curse of party rotation
However, Lai has long been considered more explosive than the cautious President Tsai Ing-wen.
He is a member of the “New Trend” faction of the Democratic Progressive Party and advocates the formal declaration of Taiwan’s independence.
Lai and his running mate Siu Meiqin are deeply disliked and mistrusted by Beijing, which has banned both of them from traveling to mainland China and Hong Kong.
Xiao Meiqin’s mother is American and her father is Taiwanese. She previously served as Taiwan’s representative to the United States.
Therefore, it is highly unlikely that China will engage in any dialogue with the new president. There has been no formal communication between the two parties since 2016. Because Tsai Ing-wen refused to recognize Taiwan as part of the mainland, China cut off communication channels at that time.
Saturday’s result also means already tense tensions in the Taiwan Strait will continue, with near-daily incursions by Chinese ships and military aircraft.
Beijing may flex its muscles to show its displeasure, as it will when U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visits Taipei in 2022. At the time, Taipei accused China of nearly blocking all of Taiwan.
China may also increase economic and diplomatic pressure to induce more small countries that still recognize Taiwan to cut off diplomatic relations with it and sanction more Taiwanese companies, products and personnel.
Lai Ching-te’s strategy in facing China’s military threat is to continue Tsai Ing-wen’s line.
He has pledged to increase Taiwan’s military spending, continue an indigenous submarine-building program and build closer ties with the United States, Japan and Europe. Tsai Ing-wen has particularly strengthened her relationship with Washington during her tenure.
However, given Lai’s “Taiwan independence” political background, the United States will worry that he may be more provocative following becoming president.
However, his running mate Xiao Meiqin gave the Biden administration some reassurance. She is likely to take the lead in convincing the United States that Lai will not provoke Beijing.
“Xi Jinping needs to learn to be silent”
No matter how carefully Lai plays his cards, the Chinese government cannot ignore the message his victory sends.
Polls show that the race is very close, but the DPP’s margin of victory is much larger than expected.
A young DPP supporter told the BBC following the election results were announced, “They are saying to China, we will not listen to you anymore, our future will be determined by ourselves, so Xi Jinping needs to learn to be more effective in our electoral process Remain silent.”
image copyrightGetty Images
Image caption,
Lai Qingde, Tsai Ing-wen, Xiao Meiqin
The campaign between Hou and the main opposition Kuomintang underscored Taiwanese’s real fears that China might attack the island.
If the KMT wins, China is likely to reduce its rhetoric and military intimidation once morest Taiwan, and Beijing is more likely to agree to dialogue with Hou Youyi.
In 2015, Xi Jinping met with Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan’s last KMT president. This is the first face-to-face meeting between the leaders of Taiwan and China since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.
But opponents of the KMT accused the KMT of adopting a capitulationist attitude towards China, of not paying attention to the island’s defense, of preventing an increase in defense spending, and of reducing military service on the island to just four months.
There are concerns that the KMT government will make Taiwan more vulnerable. Powerful allies like the United States, which provide weapons to Taiwan, will question why they are committed to defending Taiwan if Taiwan itself does not take its own defense seriously.
Taiwan’s current defense spending accounts for regarding 2.5% of its GDP. This is far lower than the United States or other countries in the region that face serious security challenges, such as South Korea.
So voters appear to have made a clear choice. They are aware of the dangers from Beijing and they do want dialogue. But the KMT has failed to appeal to young voters, who increasingly see themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese.
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Although the KMT now rarely talks regarding reunification or even “one China”, instead emphasizing that the party hopes to protect Taiwan’s peace and security by improving relations with Beijing.
The past few months may have also made people understand what Taiwan’s biggest loss is. Taiwan’s elections are abuzz, the democracy is still young and voting enthusiasm is high.
The same democracy has made clear the dissatisfaction with the DPP – rising house prices, stagnant wages and dwindling job opportunities are driving young voters away.
This is why the DPP is destined to lose its majority in parliament. Once the Kuomintang and the third largest party, the People’s Party, join forces, they are likely to control the Legislative Yuan, thereby controlling legislative power and having the opportunity to block Lai Qingde’s agenda.
The road ahead for Lai Qingde is not easy. In addition to his own government and a huge neighbor hostile to him, his tenure will be shaped by another election on the other side of the world.
If Donald Trump becomes the next president of the United States, Lai must be prepared to welcome very different allies in the White House.
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Taiwan election: “Carrot and stick” and China’s new vision for Taiwan
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