WASHINGTON (AP).—There is a 60% chance of a light La Niña event developing in the coming weeks.
This phenomenon could extend until March, indicated the Climate Prediction Center of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, for its acronym in English).
What is the Girl?
The Girl is part of a natural climate cycle which can cause episodes of extreme weather throughout the planet, and its effects vary depending on the location, he explained.
Although there are no guarantees that this La Niña event will develop, there are certain general trends.
Experts say parts of northern South America They could receive more rain than usual.
The southern regions of the United States and some areas of Mexico could be drier than normal.
The far northern United States and southern Canada could be wetter than average.
La Niña is the cold stage of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a global weather pattern that occurs due to natural causes and involves changes in wind and sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and can generate extreme weather events across the planet.
El Niño is the warm phase and occurs when the trade winds that usually blow across the Pacific towards Asia weaken, allowing warm ocean waters to accumulate along the western coast of South America.
But during La Niña, the trade winds intensify and cold water rises from the deep sea, resulting in colder than average ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific.
jet stream
These lower ocean temperatures and atmospheric changes affect the position of the jet stream—a narrow band of air that flows at high speeds westward around the planet—moving it northward.
The jet stream is located over the ocean and can pull moisture, influence the path of storms and stimulate rainfall. The planet recently experienced a “triple” La Niña event between 2020 and 2023.
“We had three consecutive winters with La Niña conditions, which was unusual because the only other case in which this had occurred was from 1973 to 1976,” said Michelle L’Heurex, a climatologist at the NOAA.
He added that La Niña events are usually longer and more recurrent than El Niño events.
“It’s unusual, but not unheard of,” said Ben Cook, a climatologist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, which is affiliated with the NASA. Columbia Universitywhen referring to the La Niña forecast for this year.
Cook noted that the frequency of La Niña events can be stressful for regions that have recently had to deal with droughts, such as East Africa.
“If we have another La Niña event, this means some continuation of these really bad conditions.”
The impacts
The La Niña’s influence on climate varies by location and seasonsaid L’Heurex.
Parts of South America, such as eastern Argentina, may be drier than average, while Colombia, Venezuela and northern Brazil could see more rain than normal.
“It depends exactly where you are. Part of this is because there is a monsoon cycle, a wet and dry season, that runs through Central and South America, so in essence, La Niña changes the intensity and location of these monsoon cycles,” explained Michelle L’Heurex.
In the United States, the Northeast and Ohio Valley typically see wetter-than-normal conditions with storm activity due to the position of the jet stream, said Samantha Borisoff, a climatologist with NOAA’s Northeast Climate Center. based at Cornell University.
Jet stream undulations may also cause more frequent cold fronts, particularly for the central and southern United States.
No warranty
Snowfall is more difficult to predict because it depends greatly on the storm and its direction, Borisoff explained, although he said that New England, New York and the Great Lakes region usually receive more snow during La Niña winters, although never It is a guarantee.
The southern and southeastern regions of the United States are farther from active storm zones and tend to be more arid and warm than normal.
The link between La Niña and El Niño with climate change is not entirely clear, according to scientists.
Climate models tend to indicate that El Niño will be more frequent and La Niña less frequent, said Paul Roundy, a climatologist at the University at Albany.
Links Relationship between phenomena
Regarding the links between La Niña and El Niño, not all models coincide.
Computer models also have difficulty separating normal variations in the El Niño and La Niña phases from the influence that climate change has on warming oceans and the atmosphere.
Nothing conclusive
“This would not lead me to conclude that climate change is not causing a greater recurrence of El Niño,” said climatologist Paul Roundy.
Big variations
“It’s just that nature has great variations of its own. “So we could have multiple La Niña events and maybe in 40 or 50 years, we’ll see a completely opposite thing.”
Related
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**Interview with Dr. Michelle L’Heurex, Climatologist at NOAA**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. L’Heurex. Let’s dive right in. Can you explain what La Niña is and how it relates to current climate patterns we’re observing?
**Dr. L’Heurex:** Absolutely! La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which is a natural climate cycle that affects global weather patterns. During a La Niña event, trade winds in the Pacific strengthen, causing cooler ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific. This shift can lead to a variety of extreme weather conditions worldwide.
**Editor:** We’ve just been informed by NOAA that there is a 60% chance of a light La Niña developing soon. How might this influence weather patterns, specifically in the United States and South America?
**Dr. L’Heurex:** If La Niña does develop, we can expect distinct weather changes. For instance, the southern U.S. and parts of Mexico may experience drier conditions, while regions in northern America and southern Canada could be wetter than average. Conversely, countries like Colombia, Venezuela, and northern Brazil might see increased rainfall, while eastern Argentina may experience drier weather.
**Editor:** It sounds like the impacts can vary widely by location. What should we be particularly mindful of in the coming months?
**Dr. L’Heurex:** Yes, the effects of La Niña are very location-specific. In parts of Central and South America, it can significantly influence monsoon cycles, altering rainfall intensity and distribution. For the U.S., we may see more storm activity in the Northeast and Ohio Valley due to the shifting jet stream.
**Editor:** You mentioned the recent “triple” La Niña event. Can you tell us why this occurrence is unusual?
**Dr. L’Heurex:** Certainly! We just experienced three consecutive winters with La Niña conditions, which is quite rare. Historically, such a pattern has only occurred once before, from 1973 to 1976. This kind of persistence in La Niña events is more common than El Niño events, which tend to be shorter and less frequent.
**Editor:** How does the increased frequency of La Niña events potentially impact regions suffering from drought, like East Africa?
**Dr. L’Heurex:** That’s a crucial concern. A continuation of La Niña conditions could worsen existing drought situations in regions already facing water shortages, such as East Africa. The variability brought by these patterns can lead to prolonged dry spells, exacerbating the difficulties for local communities.
**Editor:** Thank you, Dr. L’Heurex, for shedding light on these complex climate phenomena. It’s evident that both La Niña and El Niño can have far-reaching impacts on weather around the globe.
**Dr. L’Heurex:** Thank you for having me. It’s important for us to stay informed about these changes, as they can affect our everyday lives in numerous ways.