2024-08-21 19:43:00
this economic activity It fell again in June and the inter-annual change was negative 3.9%. In a seasonally adjusted monthly comparison, it also showed down 0.3%. In this way, he was unable to recover for two consecutive months and accumulated Shrinked 3.2% in the first half of the year.
This is from Monthly Estimate of Economic Activity (EMAE), Published by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). After a positive number in May, the economy showed signs of slowing down again in June.
Home appliance sales plummeted 33% in the first half of the year
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Economic activity: items with the most and least growth in June
“Activity in the six sectors that make up EMAE increased in June compared with the same month in 2023, with agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry (82.4%) and mining and quarrying (4.6%) being the most prominent.%) ”, the INDEC report stated.
Activity content Agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry (82.4%) In turn, the largest influence on the interannual variation of EMAE is the mining and quarrying industry (4.6%). in other words, campo Mining prevents greater retraction.
Conversely, nine sectors saw year-on-year declines in activity, with the standouts Construction (-23.6%) e Manufacturing (-20.4%). Together with wholesale, retail and repair trade (-18.6%), they subtract 6.8 percentage points from the year-to-year change in estimates.
Decreases were also recorded in electricity, gas and water (-3.4%), hotels and restaurants (-7.1%), financial intermediaries (-10.5%), real estate, commercial and rental activities (-1.4%), public administration and defence. compulsory social security schemes (-0.9%), other community, social and personal service activities (-4.6%) and taxes net of subsidies (-6.6%).
Information on June, Outlier Economist, Gabriel Camanothe entity directed by Marco Lavagna was discovered “Recalculation of growth in May”, judging from the annual growth rate 2.3% to 1.9%, from 1.3% to 0.7% per month.
Economic Activity: Weak signs of recovery in July
consultant’s report inverke Pointing out that July’s high-frequency data showed “initial recovery“In most sectors of the economy, volumes are still well below 2023 levels.
Among the indicators with the largest monthly increases, the following indicators stand out:
- Automobile patent application and production (38.8% and 38.7% respectively).
- Currency settlement (32.3%).
- Cement shipments (25.9%).
- motorcycle patent (21.3%).
At the same time, analysts consider the level of activity of the companies that are most representative of the construction market (indexing) It has also shown very positive value, rising 12.1% between June and July this year.
In the second example, they emphasize that “state taxes are related to activities Actual monthly growth of 10.3%strongly driven by higher employer contributions (up 37.5% month-on-month)” and “lending to the private sector also showed a clear recovery, rising by 13.1% compared with June.
Regardless, they recognize that the above indicators “remain, on average, 5% lower than the same month in 2023;Actually, Only two of the nine grew on an annual basis (One of them – foreign exchange liquidation – can be explained by last year’s drought)”.
To sum up, Invecq pointed out that although the first data in July showed signs of recovery in most industries, “Just one month is not enough The conclusion is drawn that the economy will return to a growth path.”.
“We will have to monitor how economic activity continues in the coming months; in particular whether there will be a readjustment of the exchange rate plan, which will have a clear impact on the real economy. At the moment, Government believes private credit will be one of the engines of economic recovery“Growing continuously since April,” they concluded.
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