In response to scientists from the College of Social, Humanities and Arts of the Kaunas College of Know-how (KTU SHMMF), this 12 months there will probably be many elections – for the President, the European Parliament and the Seimas, however all of them will probably be of little curiosity, and their final result might be simply predicted.
A standard candidate might be wanted
In response to V. Valentinavičius, immediately all polls present that we’ll have an old-new president, as a result of there are merely no such robust opponents who may oppose Gitan Nausėda.
“We now have many such candidates that the general public most likely does not even find out regarding. For instance, Giedrim Jeglinskas. Maybe we may speak concerning the intrigue relating to the second place between the present Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė and the lawyer Dainius Žalim nominated by the Freedom Celebration. The latter will definitely take away votes from the prime minister, so we will actually contemplate this step as a type of revenge of the Freedom Celebration towards the Union of the Fatherland-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD)”, V. Valentinavičius has no doubts.
In response to him, it’s apparent that the Freedom Celebration will not be placing ahead its candidate to be able to win the elections, however to be able to hinder I. Šimonyte. Talking concerning the lawyer Ignas Vēgelės, V. Valentinavičius emphasizes that he’s a robust candidate, however not so robust as to remove votes from the present President of the nation.
“G. Nausėda is extra average, his insurance policies and attitudes are already identified and publicly declared. That is what the President makes use of, as if scaring and interesting to the general public, particularly the younger a part of Lithuania, who might be very frightened by Vēgėlė’s politics and statements”, asserts the KTU political scientist.
In response to KTU researcher V. Morkevičius, essentially the most actual hazard to G. Nausėda’s second time period would come up if the present ruling majority of the Seimas had been united and nominated one candidate for President.
“However since there are not any nice friendships within the present coalition, we will say that there isn’t any coalition both, so all these events will certainly “eat” one another’s votes within the presidential elections, if they’ve their very own candidates,” states V. Morkevičius.
G. Nausėda – not D. Grybauskaitė
In response to him, the one intrigue now might be who would be the second quantity following G. Nausėda within the second spherical of elections, as a result of the present President won’t be able to win within the first spherical of elections.
“The present President will not be former President Dalia Grybauskaitė, who received already within the first spherical. It ought to be understood that the second candidate will in any case be too controversial a persona, so it’s unrealistic that these folks whose candidate didn’t make it additional would vote for him and never for Nausėdas. In different phrases, folks will select “confirmed” and identified insurance policies, slightly than blindly taking dangers and entrusting the helm of the state to a newcomer. Or they will not vote within the second spherical of elections in any respect,” V. Morkevičius has no doubts.
When requested who the leaders of those presidential elections are, KTU political scientists unanimously named three names – G. Nausėdas, I. Šimonytė and I. Vėgėlė.
“Younger folks, metropolis dwellers, fearing Vēgėlė’s extremes on, for instance, problems with range, can go and vote for the present prime minister. Arguments – it is a acquainted one that was in energy. In the meantime, a candidate like D. Žalimas will not be an individual in energy, he’s comparatively unknown, extra of a technocrat, and the vary of matters and points mentioned by him will not be so large. Even this system offered by him didn’t cowl the financial, social points that at the moment are of nice concern to the general public. He talks extra regarding authorized issues – what he actually is aware of,” says V. Valentinavičius.
V. Morkevičius additionally seconded him, reminding a latest research performed by a gaggle of KTU scientists regarding crucial issues in Lithuania. In response to the KTU researcher, immediately it’s the economic system, well being care, pensions and social welfare.
“Should you do not speak regarding it, your possibilities in politics lower exponentially,” emphasizes the KTU researcher.
Pensions are extra vital than equal rights
KTU political scientists agree that to be able to anticipate a spectrum of various voices, it’s vital to speak regarding topical matters within the areas, not solely within the cities. And the primary theme of the areas is financial. In response to the interlocutors, immediately in Lithuania over 700 thousand folks stay on the poverty line, 70 thousand. beneath the poverty line – these are giant numbers, and though it isn’t the President’s jurisdiction and space to resolve these issues, in folks’s minds, the answer to those issues continues to be related to the nation’s chief, as a result of in Lithuania, Presidents have at all times paid nice consideration to home coverage points.
“Let’s have a look – in any case, G. Nausėda was elected for that motive, that he spoke concerning the already legendary “welfare state”, – emphasizes V. Morkevičius.
In response to V. Morkevičius, historically well-being is known as financial and social well-being, ie pensions, taxes and costs, and never equal alternatives for folks. In response to him, it’s traditional in Lithuania that if this “conventional well-being of Lithuanians” will not be carried out, Lithuanians is not going to have time to assume and vote for “new well-being” – equality or related ideas.
“When we’ve 700 thousand individuals who stay on the poverty line, voters will deal with the candidate who speaks their language, who cares regarding their issues,” says the political scientist.
Each interlocutors additionally rejected the state of affairs the place the present Speaker of the Seimas, consultant of the Liberal Motion, Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, additionally challenges the President. In response to them, she, like the present prime minister, has the so-called “ruling coalition’s swagger”. The Lithuanian voter often “takes revenge” on such politicians by not voting for them.
In response to V. Morkevičius, essentially the most fascinating factor concerning the Presidential elections is that there isn’t any consultant of the Social Democrats (LSDP). In response to him, get together chairman Vilija Blinkevičiūtė might be a really fascinating candidate and it might be far more troublesome to foretell how these elections will finish.
“The LSDP is silent on this challenge and more than likely there will probably be no such candidate, so there will probably be no better intrigue within the presidential elections both,” says the KTU political scientist.
The path of the nation is not going to change
Talking concerning the Seimas elections, V. Morkevičius has no doubts that the political forces within the Seimas will change, however the international and nationwide protection coverage, the method to geopolitical occasions – undoubtedly not. In different phrases, even when the social democrats come, there ought to be no concern that the rhetoric of Lithuanian politicians will resemble the language of the Hungarian rulers.
“Analysis has been performed that exhibits what occurs when social democrats, left events come to energy in Lithuania. More often than not, this system of those events will not be set by politicians, however by bureaucrats, who additionally deliver concepts from worldwide organizations. And immediately, the place of European social democrats is united – on the problems of the EU, NATO, help for Ukraine and growing the protection finances. I’ve little doubt that if our Estonian neighbors are constructing bunkers, we are going to construct bunkers subsequent to the Social Democrats – it doesn’t matter what occurs,” the KTU political scientist has no doubts.
In response to V.Valentinavičius, how far more anxiousness would there be if the brand new Seimas coalition included not solely Saulius Skvernelis’s get together “Vardan Lietuvos” but in addition the Peasants-Greens Union along with the LSDP. It’s the latter who may change Lithuania’s rhetoric in direction of Russia, as a result of they’re linked by means of enterprise and pursuits.
He’s seconded by V. Morkevičius, who says that it’s only concerning the hazard of fixing Lithuania’s rhetoric, and never actions in direction of the nation’s aggressor. In response to him, it’s inconceivable that any sane politician would begin speaking immediately that we have to talk extra with this nation. In response to him, one other guarantor of sustaining the path of international coverage is the already talked regarding old-new president.
The MFA disaster might drag on
V. Morkevičius will not be certain that even when the Minister of Overseas Affairs adjustments, whose place will most likely be taken by a social democrat, the relations between the Presidency and the Ministry would change.
“Everybody believes that when the present minister (ed. Gabrielis Landsbergiis) adjustments, and the LSDP consultant arrives, G. Nausėda will shake his hand with pleasure. In spite of everything, the President was the one who needed to “settle down” one of many nation’s greatest diplomats, the previous social democrat Linas Linkevičius, and didn’t appoint him as an envoy,” the political scientist emphasizes.
Each interlocutors agree that whoever takes the chair of this ministry is not going to change Lithuania’s international coverage in direction of NATO, the EU, or Ukraine.
Speaking concerning the puzzle of the governing coalition of the Seimas, political scientists singled out the Liberal Motion, which might create extra intrigue within the fall.
“Liberal Motion (LS) will not be so liberal immediately – in any case, that is what triggered the divorce between them and the Lithuanian Freedom Celebration. Let us take a look at the ranks of LS – Viktoras Pranckietis (ed. – former consultant of LŽVS) and some others who, when voting for liberal points, are extra like conservatives than liberals. It’s undoubtedly the get together that matches within the present coalition and, for instance, sooner or later one along with the Social Democrats and the “Vardan Lietuvos” get together led by S. Skvernelis. Even the rhetoric – they (LS) hardly ever spoke strongly towards S. Skvernelis, they cooperated with the then Speaker of the Seimas V. Pranckiečius”, fashions V. Valentinavičius.
He’s seconded by V. Morkevičius, who remembers the origins of LS – the Union of Liberals and Facilities (LiCS) – and their political traditions – being within the authorities each with the TS-LKD and with the Social Democrats.
“LS will not be very removed from the previous traditions of LiCS – appropriate for everybody”, says V. Morkevičius.
In response to V.Valentinavičius, even breaking the political custom of LS and never nominating its personal candidate for President is probably a calculated strategic step ahead, serious regarding the longer term coalition and remaining within the ruling majority and efforts to not publicly escalate the decision within the “MG Baltic” case. In response to him, by selecting such a transfer, Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, chairwoman of the LS get together, may help the get together not lose votes within the upcoming Seimas elections.
Intrigue concerning the Prime Minister
“An vital side is that we’ll have many elections this 12 months. Earlier than the Seimas elections, we can have two elections, throughout which individuals will be capable to take revenge on the rulers – the President’s and the European Parliament. Individuals will come to the third – Seimas elections – having already taken revenge on the conservatives within the earlier two elections, and if the latter get together doesn’t do something “dangerous” throughout the remainder of the time period, folks’s help might enhance because the Seimas elections method, and the ultimate end result might even be shocking,” emphasizes V. .Morkevich.
It’s true that each political scientists, following reviewing all the present scores of political events and survey information, unanimously agree that the present coalition has no probability of remaining within the subsequent Seimas.
In response to them, now maybe the largest intrigue stays concerning the Prime Minister. Rejecting the candidacy of the present Speaker of the Seimas for the place of prime minister, even when the coalition of LSDP, LS and the get together led by S.Skvernelis is shaped, KTU political scientists agree that the possibilities of S.Skvernelis turning into prime minister stay.
“One of many luminaries of the LSDP, the mayor of Jonava, Mindaugas Sinkevičius, is drowning within the examine scandal, which isn’t clear the way it will finish. If LSDP doesn’t supply something extra, there’s a probability for S. Skvernelis to change into prime minister once more. So, the largest intrigue of the Seimas elections is who will lead the Authorities, not what the coalition will probably be,” emphasised KTU political scientist V. Valentinavičius.
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2024-05-25 23:52:45
