2023-06-13 01:13:24
Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS revealed that the baht opened this morning at 34.63 baht per dollar. “Depreciated slightly” from the previous day’s close at 34.60 baht per dollar. Wait for the outcome of the meeting of the major central banks.
Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank, revealed that the US stock market Still in a risk-on condition (Risk-On) amid the hopes of players in the market that different views The Fed has a 79% chance (according to the CME FedWatch Tool) to hold interest rates at its June meeting. Which such views have encouraged tech stocks and AI theme stocks to rise energetically, led by Amazon + 2.5%, Nvidia + 1.8%, resulting in the Nasdaq tech stock index rising + 1.53%. S&P500 closed +0.93%
In Europe, the STOXX600 rebounded +0.16%, driven by gains in tech and AI-themed stocks as well as in the US (Infineon Tech. +2.7%, ASML +0.7%). Brand-name stocks (Hermes +3.0%, LVMH +1.8%) started to improve. On hopes that Chinese authorities may launch additional stimulus measures, however, European stock markets remain pressured by concerns that The European Central Bank (ECB) may continue to raise interest rates. to control high inflation
in the bond market Market players are waiting for the US CPI inflation report to be realized later today. As a result, the movement of the US 10-year bond yield moved sideways in the range of 3.70%-3.80%. Most market players are waiting for the moment to gradually buy (buy on dip) long-term bonds, resulting in an increase in long-term bond yields due to market risk exposure or Adjusting the view of market players on the Fed rate hike will be limited.
in the currency market The dollar has had some rebound momentum. After continuing to weaken during intraday trading. The dollar index (DXY) recently rose to 103.5 points as market participants waited for the US CPI inflation report, which might influence the direction of the Fed’s monetary policy. in the gold price side Financial Market Risk Receptive Atmosphere Including the rebound appreciation of the dollar pressured gold prices. (COMEX gold contract for delivery in August) dropped to test the $1,960/ounce zone once more before rebounding to $1,974/ounce. which we consider Some market players may gradually buy gold during the slump and the flow of such transactions may have pressured the baht to weaken somewhat during the night.
For today, we believe that financial markets may fluctuate accordingly. US CPI Inflation Report for May If CPI inflation slows down to 4.1% (+0.2%m/m), core CPI inflation excluding energy and food prices will rise to 4.1% (+0.2%m/m). It slowed down to 5.2% (+0.4%) as expected, which may help market players to see that The Fed may not need to raise interest rates at its June meeting. But if inflation comes out higher than expected It may cause players in the market to come back to see that The Fed may raise interest rates at its June meeting or increase the likelihood of the next rate hike. If the Fed holds interest rates at its June meeting
in the European side Market players will wait to assess the economic outlook for the eurozone. Passed the report on the German Economic Sentiment Index (ZEW Survey) in June. by the market that Concerns regarding the outlook for the manufacturing sector affected by a slowdown in major trading partners’ economies, particularly China, as well as the impact of continued interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB), may put pressure on investors. Institutions and analysts are further negative on the outlook for the German economy, with the ZEW index potentially falling to -13.1 points.
for the trend of the baht last night The baht moved volatilely, depreciating to test the zone of 34.70 baht per dollar. In line with the US dollar’s appreciation and the flow of buying gold transactions, however, the baht began to gradually appreciate. After some market players began to profit from the dollar’s short-term rebound. As for the price of gold, it can rebound somewhat as well.
It is estimated that The baht may swing sideways in the same range as most market players may be waiting for the outcome of the meeting of the major central banks. If the German ZEW report comes out worse than expected. This pressures the Euro (EUR) to be at risk of depreciating to some extent. In addition, be wary of volatility during the US CPI inflation report (at 7:30 p.m.), because if the CPI inflation is higher than expected, This will result in market players starting to believe that the Fed may have a chance to raise interest rates at this June meeting or the Fed may continue to raise interest rates at the next meeting. This view will support the dollar to strengthen once more.
However, we believe that the baht may not depreciate too much. Although the dollar came back to appreciate. If foreign investors do not continue to sell Thai assets As in the past, we believe that selling pressure on Thai assets has started to decrease and there is a chance that foreign investors may return to buy more Thai assets. After acknowledging the results of the meetings of the major central banks We recommend that During the time when the financial market was still facing the uncertainty of Thai politics including the direction of monetary policy of the major central banks Entrepreneurs should use a variety of hedging tools such as options to increase efficiency in hedging once morest exchange rate risk. Looking at the Thai baht frame today It is expected to be in the range of 34.55-34.75 baht/dollar before the realization of CPI inflation and may be in the range of 34.50-34.80 baht/dollar during the realization of the CPI inflation.
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