Dr. Kobsak Pootrakool statedthat Global Recessions : The world is in recession!!!We often face recessions, but Global Recessions It’s a problem that’s getting harder and harder than before.
is like this It’s because the recession is normal. that happens often Developed countries have experienced a combined recession of regarding 150 times since the 1960s.
As the economy expands for a while, it accumulates problems, eventually going into a temporary recession. weak company It must be closed during this period.
Unemployed people, including those who are over-employed, lose their jobs during this period. Banks manage bad debt problems from the Balance Sheets if there is high inflation. Inflation will decrease during this period. If there is a bubble, it will flatten. All will help Set zero to the system.
After that, it will enter a new starting point. at low interest Banks start lending, bright stocks, companies start to reopen, expand businesses, start hiring, people start spending
However Expansion-Recession or Expansion-Recession cycle This is normal in every country. which normally expands for 4-5 years, followed by 4-5 quarters of recession, alternating
“Business has its ups and downs,” so does the economy. “It’s ups and downs.” part time spent sometimes shorter sometimes longer depending on how deep the problem is If there is a financial crisis The crisis of the bubble burst with a lot of bad debt included, it will take more time
for example Tom Yum Kung period in Thailand or Subprime in the United States, the country that is the source of the crisis wellIt usually takes another 3-4 years following the recession. to recuperate before returning to normal health. can restart
-USA post-subprime declines 1.5 years, followed by 4-5 years of solving problems
-Dow Jones It used to be the highest at 14,000 at the end of 2007. Before returning to the same point, it had to be 2013. The US house price was the highest in 2006. Before the house price was booming once more, it had to be 2012. Before returning to the same point, it had to be 2016.
-Thai following Tom Yam Kung in 1997, until the stocks start to recover, it must be in 2002-2003. But if there is no domestic financial crisis Recovery will be especially fast.
such as Thailand following Subprime 2008, the following year, our stocks started to recover actively and in 2010 was able to return to the same place. (while the United States still has to take another 3 years.) !!!
Only the economic recession in this round Going to upgrade to Global Recessions!!! that “the whole world” is experiencing this condition at the same time.
Although some countries are still able to expand, but in Global Recessions, the world as a whole has reduced the size of the economy!!!
events of this nature It happened only 5 times in the past 70 years:
1975 – First Oil Shock Oil Crisis
1982 – After the Fed raised interest rates sharply to fight inflation following Second Oil Shock.
1991 – After the Gulf War and another hike in world oil prices
2009 – After the Subprime Crisis
2020 – During the closing of the city at the same time First round from Covid-19
All cycles of “Global Recession” or “Synchronized Recessions” are not specific to one country.
What is worrying is that from the beginning people came out and said that this country, this country, the economy is slowing down. What awaits us in this round Upgrading to Global Recessions once more
If you think regarding it. 1975 1982 1991 The problem started with the price of oil that threatens every country.
This time too world oil price combined with world food prices It affects everyone at the same time, leading to the highest inflation crisis in 30-40 years in almost every country.
For this reason, the central banks of various countries Therefore, strict policies are needed to wage war on inflation. Requires a strong drug and from various central bank policies These markets therefore continue to forecast that There will be a number of countries that will start entering Recession (seriously) later this year, early next year, and the Recession may be coming sooner than we think. If the gas pipeline crisis in Europe spreads
That’s in line with analysts from Nomura who expected seven nations to face the problem. are the United States, the Eurozone, England, Japan, Korea, Australia, Canada. during the next 12 months
-Received with the President of the IMF who issued a warning in the past week
– Get with the World Bank Chief Economist issued a warning in this regard as well
And the more China has internal problems. The recession of the world around this there will be no helper
All of this will have implications.on world energy prices commodity price asset prices As we have seen in the past 1 month and will have implications to come.to Thailand in the next period inevitably Because we are part of the whole global economy. Fortunately, we still have some time.
If we take the rest Taking advantage of the opportunities opened by food-price crises, energy prices and international conflicts both in terms of agricultural products exporting to the US travel investment in renewable energy and the interest that everyone hasFincrease with ASEAN, we will be able to pay off can pass
#Explore the economy with Dr. Kob #GlobalRecessions
Thank you for the photos from WION and Archyde.com.
