2023-05-26 07:00:00
For me, the 777-9 is a hare here.
We have known for some time that the group’s A330s will have to be replaced. Those of KLM must leave by 2025 and it has been said that the replacements of those of Air France will be selected this year.
Air France and KLM also have a fleet of around forty 777-200ERs to be replaced in the years to come. And since the beginning of the year and the departure of Pieter Elbers, we have also heard rumors of A350s at KLM. And it is finally the group, as Ben Smith wished, which will take care of the development of the fleet and more each entity in its corner.
We also hear talk of consolidation in the air market in France and the Air France – KLM group will be eyeing the Portuguese TAP to gain market share in South America.
Let’s not forget the recent single-aisle order for KLM and Transavia from Airbus when Boeing was supposed to have a hand with KLM.
And let’s not forget the politics in all this either with a group that benefited from a lot of public money during the covid, even if it has reimbursed everything today. The made in France also counts a little.
All that to say that if there is not the announcement of a “big” long-haul order at the Paris Air Show in June from Air France – KLM, it will be very “disappointing”. This means that the group is currently negotiating or finishing negotiating this order with Airbus and Boeing.
Everything is obviously possible and that’s why we see filtering in the press articles or tweets like here. But my opinion is not 777-9 for the moment, if at all even in the long term.
Instead, I see one of the following options:
1) either they take A350s and 787s:
– 15 787-9 for Air France to replace the A330-200s, thus rationalizing the fleet of 10 787 they already have,
– 10 787-9 or -10 for KLM as a replacement for the A330-200 and A330-300,
– 15 A350-900s for KLM to replace the 777-200ERs,
– 20 A350-1000s as the first replacement batch for the oldest 777-300ERs for Air France and KLM.
either it is only Airbus that wins (with or without A330neo for Air France):
– 25 A330-900 or A350-900 for Air France to replace the A330-200 and 787-9 which are transferred to KLM to replace these A330s,
– 15 A350-900s for KLM to replace the 777-200ERs,
– 20 A350-1000s as the first replacement batch for the oldest 777-300ERs for Air France and KLM.
In both cases, between 40 and 60 long hauls for the group. And it is, in my opinion, Ben Smith’s desire to consolidate the fleet around the A350 and the 787 in the two entities.
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#KLM #Airbus #A3501000 #Boeing
