Kirchnerism’s Electoral Future: From Plaza de Mayo to Mercedes, Candidates and Alliances in Motion

2023-05-28 04:28:31

From Plaza de Mayo to Mercedes, Kirchnerism presents images of the electoral future of the Frente de Todos. First, the photo of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner surrounded by the four children “of the decimated generation” and, later, that of Sergio Massa and Pedro “Wado” together, exchanging jokes and praise during the inauguration of a tourist train. Later, Massa met with Axel Kicillof before his trip to China and Wado participated in a plenary session of the Evita Movement. In these cases, more than an electoral formula, what CFK allows us to glimpse is the ratification of the political alliance with massismo while enabling the different chips that make up the FdT electoral board to play and measure themselves. From now until the closing of the lists, the two potential competitors of Christianity will have to face, equally, objective limitations: Massa’s economy, De Pedro’s low level of knowledge of him. Those who know CFK know that he has not yet made a decision and that he will let them run until the last moment, waiting for someone to offer better results than option B that is most measured today in Kirchnerism (after her): Axel Kicillof.

They are not, however, the only chips in motion. Encouraged by Alberto Fernández, neither Daniel Scioli nor Agustín Rossi lowered their candidacies, if not quite the opposite. The cry that unites them is different: “We want STEP”, they challenge.

massismo and kirchnerismo

“Dale Wado, drive”, Sergio Massa laughs while filming Pedro’s Eduardo “Wado” during the start of a tourist train that will link the towns of Mercedes and Tomás Jofré. The video, uploaded to the social networks of the Minister of Economy, thus preceded an act that would be populated with winks and considerations between the two potential pre-candidates who had escorted the vice president in the act for May 25. “Thank you, comrade Sergio,” the Christian official will repeat more than once during the ceremony, while he hugs him and acknowledges, in front of a crowd that chants “Wado president,” that the Economy Minister “grabbed a hot potato.” “Don’t be a son of a bitch,” Massa challenges him, laughing, when De Pedro passes him the microphone. “I wanted him to be the one to speak because I know he dreams of Argentina but that he projects it here, at home,” he will explain later, closing a comedy step that, almost by chance — the activity had been organized for Thursday but it had to be postponed due to the rain–, it ended up working as a platform for what seemed like the launch of the campaign of Wado de Pedro or, at least, of a hypothetical formula together with Sergio Massa.

“What is clear here is that what was previously an agreement of three became an agreement of two,” summarizes a national official who talks with the different terminals of the ruling party. As with the act in Plaza de Mayo -where the entire FdT was seen except Alberto Fernández-, CFK ratifies its alliance with Massa and suggests that the FdT’s electoral proposal will come out of that agreement. By way of response, Massa concedes that his place is in the “family” of the FdT even though he is not the candidate: “We can have one place or the other. We are not concerned about which place we have, but about which is the Argentina that we built”, assured in Mercedes.

Massa’s electoral future depends today, to a large extent, on his being able to agree with the IMF on the advancement of disbursements for five billion dollars. Although the escalation of prices seems to have no ceiling, in the massismo they are quick to emphasize that the inflationary context “is not recessive as in the Macri era.” The eye is set, then, on the way to add relief to the shortage of dollars. The trip to China is part of that logic, since the minister will seek to expand the currency swap there. The presence of Máximo Kirchner in the delegation, in turn, will add visibility and political weight to the trip. The week that they will spend together will also work as an ideal setting for the electoral thread.

“Wado is coming”

Since CFK’s nod to the heirs of the decimated generation, the installation of Wado de Pedro as a candidate for Christianity has been meteoric. Not only did a large part of the Kirchnerist flat that, just a couple of weeks ago, sang “Cristina presidenta” come out to strongly support him in public, but the minister’s own campaign device began to intensify virtual and territorial actions. Before the act in Mercedes, De Pedro had published a suggestive campaign ad and, simultaneously, the walls of the first and second cordon of the suburbs were papered with posters that showed the image of CFK and the Minister of the Interior embracing with the legend “Se se Wado is coming.” Those in charge of this operation had been Martín Insaurralde and Gustavo “Tano” Menéndez, two of the Buenos Aires leaders who, at the request of Máximo himself, are collaborating with the campaign of the camporista official. Everything, of course, with the approval of CFK itself.

De Pedro is also working on the government program that the vice president herself highlighted in her latest public appearances. The axes on which his campaign team works are the same ones that CFK presented at the Plaza de Mayo event: renegotiating the debt with the IMF, articulating the public and private spheres to protect natural resources, renewing the democratic pact, and reforming the Justice. In turn, some other programmatic axes will be added, such as the simplification and progressivity of the tax regime.

The main obstacle for “Wado” is his low level of knowledge and, within Kirchnerism itself, there are several leaders who are wary that he can “add 15 points in 15 days.” Faced with this scenario, the clamor for a candidacy for Axel Kicillof is gaining more and more weight. The prodigal (political) son of the vice president has three characteristics that make him one of the most competitive options: he is the one who measures best in the polls, he is the one who best retains the CFK vote and, in turn, he is the one who has more chances of expanding abroad. These three characteristics are, however, the same ones that make it the most competitive option for re-election in the Province. And so they make it known from the governor’s inner circle. “Axel’s vote is not fully transferable, we don’t have another candidate that is big enough. And that could make us lose the Province and, above all, the Nation,” explains a Kicillofista leader who, despite everything, warns: “The one that defines It’s Christina.”

Less than a month before the lists close, Kirchnerism is a festival of speculation. Kicillof’s rise to the national ring was accompanied, for example, by a buzz about a hypothetical “barter plan” that would take Wado to PBA. To this is added that each meeting that ends up being photographed derives in a hypothetical electoral formula. Only on Saturday gave rise to two: first that of De Pedro and Massa in Mercedes and, later, that of Massa with the head of AYSA (and his wife), Malena Galmarini, and Kicillof. There are not a few Christian leaders who speculate that a leader from Massa’s kidney, like Galmarini or Cecilia Moreau, be given the vice presidency.

STEP yes or STEP no

After the “resignation”, President Alberto Fernández has focused his electoral strategy on a tooth and nail defense of a STEP. For this reason, he encouraged the candidacies of Daniel Scioli and Agustín Rossi, two pre-candidates who today defy the will of a large part of the camporismo and the Renewal Front and insist on competing in a primary. Until now, Máximo Kirchner’s way of limiting his aspirations has been to warn them that, if they were going to compete, they would have to put together their own lists for all positions. “It is to press and mark the field, but they still do not have a definitive position on the STEP”, warned, however, a Buenos Aires leader.

The ambassador in Brazil, until now, has been the one who has been most active. In the last week he has toured the Province of Buenos Aires with the Minister of Social Development, Victoria Tolosa Paz, in a tandem that has opened the question about a possible running mate or candidate for governor. “They went out with the ambulance to look for the broken and uncooked of the Province,” they ironize from the Buenos Aires government. Scioli, however, has been holding meetings with leaders from all over the Front, from mayors K, such as Mayra Mendoza and Jorge Ferraresi, to leaders of social organizations, such as Emilio Pérsico. “You have to give power to the citizenry and order the candidacies with your vote,” repeats the former Buenos Aires governor.

“Goat” Rossi, meanwhile, will officially launch his candidacy on Monday. Unlike Scioli or the president, the chief of staff was present on Thursday in Plaza de Mayo to support CFK. And when they blame him for being an Albertist candidate, he replies: “I am an ideological Kirchnerist.”

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