◀ Anchor ▶
This is the Unification Observatory.
At a recent military event in North Korea, Kim Joo-ae, the daughter of Chairman Kim Jong-un, was seen receiving respect from Kim Yo-jong.
Each time Kim Joo-ae appears, differing viewpoints about the succession plan emerge.
How should this be interpreted?
This is reporter Choi Yu-chan.
◀ Report ▶
A venue showcasing missile launchers arranged in a row.
This event was held by North Korea to announce the deployment of new tactical ballistic missile launchers to forward units.
As Kim Joo-ae followed Chairman Kim Jong-un, Kim Yo-jong, Vice Department Director of the Workers’ Party of Korea, approached her, bowed, and gestured for her to take her seat.
This marks her first public appearance in 80 days since May, and it is unusual to see Kim Yo-jong showing deference to anyone other than Kim Jong-un, leading to speculation that this may indicate intensifying succession training.
[Jo Han-beom/Senior Research Fellow, Korea Institute for National Unification]
“The relationship between (Kim Yo-jong and Kim Joo-ae) seems more like a superior-subordinate dynamic rather than an aunt-niece bond, which was established from the beginning. This shows that the intensity of the succession training is increasing.”
Kim Joo-ae first appeared at the Hwasong-17 test launch site in November 2022.
Since then, she has been featured in North Korean media approximately 30 times, with 70% of her public engagements focused on military matters.
During the military parade in February last year, high-ranking officials of the Workers’ Party were reported to have escorted Kim Joo-ae.
[Report on North Korea’s Armed Forces Day parade (February 2023)]
“The secretaries of the Central Committee of the Party took their seats in the VIP area with their esteemed children.”
There was also a moment captured of a military leader kneeling before Kim Joo-ae and whispering in her ear.
The titles referring to her have changed several times, and the term ‘guidance’ is now commonly used to describe a leader or successor.
However, it remains too early to definitively assess the succession plan.
Last month, the National Intelligence Service suggested that Kim Joo-ae’s position as a successor could change, indicating that her succession training is ongoing.
Moreover, many analyses suggest it is unlikely for a daughter to inherit power, given the North Korean power structure that is traditionally based on male lineage.
[Park Won-gon/Professor, Department of North Korean Studies, Ewha Womans University]
“Considering the possibility of a female leader emerging in a male-dominated society and her young age, questions arise about whether she has made any firm decisions…”
Some argue that Kim Jong-un probably has a son, and that Kim Joo-ae, still in her early teens, should be regarded merely as a representation of the future generation, serving as justification for bolstering nuclear capabilities.
This is Choi Yu-chan from MBC News.
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Analysis of Kim Joo-ae’s Role in North Korean Succession Plans
At a recent military event in North Korea, Kim Joo-ae, the daughter of Chairman Kim Jong-un, was captured receiving courtesy from Kim Yo-jong. Every time Kim Joo-ae appears, conflicting observations surrounding the succession plan pour in. The dynamics of her public appearances have raised questions about the future leadership of North Korea.
Recent Developments in North Korean Politics
An event venue was showcased with missile launchers lined up, marking North Korea’s announcement of deploying new tactical ballistic missile launchers to forward units. During this event, Kim Joo-ae accompanied Chairman Kim Jong-un as Kim Yo-jong, the Vice Department Director of the Workers’ Party of Korea, publicly acknowledged her by bowing and guiding her to her seat. This marked Kim Joo-ae’s first appearance in 80 days since May, leading to speculation about the intensification of her succession training.
The Significance of Kim Joo-ae’s Appearances
Since her emergence at the Hwasong-17 test launch site in November 2022, Kim Joo-ae has appeared in the media approximately 30 times. Notably, 70% of these appearances have been military-related, indicating a possible strategic focus on defense and military prowess.
Instances of military officials kneeling before Kim Joo-ae and whispering into her ear have been documented, further highlighting her growing prominence within North Korean political circles. The official titles describing her role have also shifted, with recent references to her as providing ‘guidance’ akin to that of a leader or successor.
Expert Opinions on Succession Planning
Despite the increasing visibility of Kim Joo-ae, experts remain cautious regarding declarations about a predefined succession plan. The National Intelligence Service has pointed out that Kim Joo-ae’s future as a successor may not be set in stone, emphasizing ongoing training to determine her suitability.
Many analysts argue that the tradition of patrilineal succession in North Korea complicates her potential as a future leader. Cho Han-beom from the Unification Research Institute remarked on the shifting perspective from familial ties to a more hierarchical relationship between Kim Joo-ae and Kim Yo-jong, indicating a serious approach to the training process.
Gender Dynamics and Leadership in North Korea
The Role of Women in North Korean Politics: The notion of a female leader emerging in North Korea’s male-dominated society raises pertinent questions. Professor Park Won-kon from Ewha Womans University discusses the societal barriers and Kim Joo-ae’s young age as significant factors that could render female leadership unlikely.
In a society where power structures lean heavily towards male inheritance, Kim Joo-ae’s journey accentuates the complexity of North Korean politics. Some analysts speculate that Kim Jong-un may have a son and that Kim Joo-ae should primarily be seen as a representation of the next generation, rather than a direct contender for leadership.
Realities of North Korean Succession
While Kim Joo-ae’s role is still evolving, understanding the broader context of succession in North Korea is essential. The power dynamics, familial relationships, and traditional norms all contribute to the ongoing discourse about leadership in the country.
Substance over speculation seems to be the narrative driving this analysis, as North Korea grapples with inevitable changes in leadership scenarios. Keeping a close eye on future appearances and political maneuvers will be vital in analyzing Kim Joo-ae’s potential legitimacy and role moving forward.
Looking to the Future: The Implications of Kim Joo-ae’s Ascendance
As Kim Joo-ae continues to participate in significant military and political events, experts urge caution. The balance of power within North Korean leadership remains delicate, and the potential for her to ascend as a leader hinges on many factors, including the political atmosphere and familial loyalty.
The succession narrative is not merely about an individual but a reflection of North Korea’s cultural and political landscape. Observers will need to remain vigilant as the future unfolds, examining both internal and external influences on leadership dynamics.
Practical Tips for Analyzing North Korean Politics
- Stay updated on Kim Joo-ae’s public appearances and any shifts in context.
- Monitor expert analyses and reports on North Korean dynamics.
- Consider historical patterns of leadership succession within North Korea.
- Engage with diverse sources to understand the socio-political environment of North Korea.
Final Thoughts
In conclusion, while Kim Joo-ae’s current role poses interesting questions for succession in North Korea, the complexity of familial relationships, gender roles, and the traditional power structure renders definitive conclusions elusive. Observers must tread carefully to piece together the nuances of this evolving political narrative.
