«In Iran there is a strong comparison between the old and the new generation. The old ones like Khamenei, paradoxically, are the most moderate part, while the new generations of Pasdaran and Revolutionary Guards, who command, are interventionists. Khamenei is slowly also losing his personal points of reference, see Raisi and Nasrallah, and today he finds himself dealing with a new, more interventionist generation.” This is the analysis of Daniele Ruvinetti, senior advisor of the Med-or Foundation, who analyzes the influence of the vote in the USA in light of two major conflicts currently open.
Khamenei has many enemies, internal and external. If he were to pass away, what would happen?
“The possible fall of the Supreme Leader, with the entry of the new generation onto the scene, should not make us feel more at ease, because they want a direct confrontation with Israel.”
If Trump wins the elections, what could happen in the Middle East?
«A strengthening of external support for Israel and Netanyahu, who hopes for Trump’s arrival because it would strengthen him. On this front, therefore, I don’t see an easy closure, indeed there could even be a worsening of tensions, which is why I don’t think there will be any type of truce until January.”
What do you think of the argument that Netanyahu is doing the dirty work for many?
«It has a kernel of truth. Iran and the Shiites, who are a strong minority in the Arab world, are isolated in the Arab world and the world at large. The Iranian presence and its expansion in the region has annoyed and created concern for the USA, the EU and the entire Western world. But it has also created concern in the Sunni world, led by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf monarchies and obviously Turkey, all Sunnis. Hamas’ alliance with Iran is anomalous and asymmetrical, while Hezbollah is in fact an Iranian offshoot and Nasrallah was a godson of Khamenei. So it is clear that the Arab world comes to the defense of Palestine because it is their cause, intertwined with the religious theme. But it is equally obvious that the Gulf monarchies somehow support Israel and make it do things that they would never allow others to do. When Hamas made a strong deal with Iran it annoyed Qatar and Turkey. And it is precisely because of this divide within the Arab world that they have lost that almost unconditional support. Therefore, no one will tear their clothes if Israel carries out a direct attack on Iran, as I believe it will.”
In Ukraine instead?
«Trump will force Zelensky to reach an agreement with Putin».
So will Zelensky be forced to surrender?
«In Ukraine we are witnessing a slow but progressive advance of the Russians in Donbass. Zelensky tried, with the incursion into Russian Kursk, to distract and ease the pressure that Ukrainian forces have in Donbass. But the Kremlin has not eased the pressure on Donbass, which I believe is the main objective of Putin who considers the Kursk region non-strategic, where among other things the Ukrainians cannot advance much. Trump could tell Putin to take Donbass and not go further, what in my opinion Putin wants, who could in turn ask for Ukraine’s accession to NATO to be delayed.”
Is such a situation a dangerous precedent that would push other entities with expansionist aims, for example China, to attempt the same path in other territories?
«There is no doubt. Unfortunately there are no other outlets. If the US cuts supplies, Ukraine is finished. Also because Putin will never agree to just retire. The lesser evil is to reach a compromise. It is clear that it is a loss for Ukraine, but either we stay like this or the only agreement I see possible is that.
Also because an agreement can be imposed on Zelensky, but not on Putin.”
#Khamenei #pasdaran #dangerous #Tempo
2024-10-04 15:11:28