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Catalonia will go to the polls early on May 12, nine months before the legislature expired. The president of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, announced this Wednesday the dissolution of the Parliament following seeing the approval of the 2024 budget project truncated and the content of which he had agreed with the PSC. These are the keys and the answers to the main questions raised by the electoral call:
When will the Catalan elections be?
Pere Aragonès has brought forward the elections to May 12. They were scheduled for February 2025, but the president He has alleged that he anticipates the appointment with the polls “with the aim that Catalonia can be given a much stronger Government.” The leader of the PSC and head of the opposition, Salvador Illa, has pointed out that “the sooner Catalans can vote, the better.” Illa has stated that “Catalonia needs a president because it needs stability.” During his turn, Jordi Turull has opened the door for Carles Puigdemont to be in Catalonia when it is time to vote. “The person we all have in mind, on the day of the investiture debate, might be in Catalonia,” he said. He has also stressed that Junts will present “the best candidate” and has accused ERC of acting with “sectarianism.” Turull rules out that Aragonès’ announcement will decimate Junts’ options: “We are prepared.”
Why doesn’t Pere Aragonès continue with extended budgets?
The Esquerra Government had in its power to extend the budgets and extend its mandate until February 2025, the date set to hold the Catalan elections. Even though he president Aragonès has repeatedly insisted that “the elections will be when they have to be”, the setback to his budget this Wednesday has precipitated the announcement of an early election. Aragonès has reproached the “irresponsibility” of those who have helped knock down the accounts. As the appointment advances with the polls, Esquerra tries to surprise its rivals with the changed foot.
How do the parties arrive at the May 12 event?
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The PSC leads the polls by a margin, but it is unknown what electoral effect the approval of the amnesty may have on the socialist bases or how the judicial investigations into the Koldo case and the fraudulent purchase of masks during the pandemic. By anticipating the elections, Aragonès also tries to surprise Junts, which has not yet defined its candidate. The party insists that the Puigdemont letter is valid, but there are doubts regarding whether the amnesty will then have full effect. Esquerra is considering internal surveys that show poor electoral dynamics, but nothing makes the party leadership think that the situation might be better in 10 months. By setting the elections before the summer, Aragonès saves itself from the wear and tear generated by drought management and possible water restrictions in the middle of summer. The Esquerra Government is supported by a fragile parliamentary majority of 33 deputies out of 135 and the pressure on Aragonès has been maximum. Albert Batet, leader of Junts, stated this Wednesday in Parliament: “They cannot prolong this agony.” Until the last minute, Esquerra clung to the idea that the common people might not vote no to “expansive” budgets that contemplated an increase of “2.4 billion euros to improve the welfare state.” It was the budget “with the most resources in the history of the Generalitat,” Aragonès insisted in his appearance at the Generalitat.
What is Hard Rock, the project for which the Budgets have not prospered?
A mega tourist complex with a casino and betting rooms that is planned in Salou (Tarragona) and that has become a thorn in the side of the Government of Pere Aragonès. The North American multinational Hard Rock is planning an investment of 700 million euros on land next to Port Aventura Park to deploy 7,600 square meters dedicated to gaming, with 1,200 slot machines and 100 betting tables. The Government alleges that the idea does not generate enthusiasm, but that it cannot violate a process that has been underway since it was activated by the Convergència Executive led by Artur Mas, in 2012. Esquerra has only 33 deputies in the Parliament, the majority are in the 68 votes, and justifies that the PSC asked to leave the Hard Rock free to lend the support of its 33 seats. The pact between Aragonès and the leader of the Catalan socialists, Salvador Illa, was closed weeks ago. The remaining votes until the majority depended on an unlikely alliance with Junts or repeating last year’s tripartite ERC, PSC and En Comú. The parliamentary group of the commons demanded that the Government explicitly reject the processing of the resort, with buildings up to 75 meters high, to give its support to the Catalan budgets. The rejection never came, the commons have dropped the budgets and the calling of elections has been rushed.
What effects might it have for the stability of the central government?
The fiasco of the Generalitat’s budgets causes a tidal wave in Catalan politics and the waves have the capacity to splash in Madrid. The setback of the commons to Esquerra in the Catalan parliament wrecks Pere Aragonès’ plans to close his last year in office with approved accounts, and opens the door to a domino effect that compromises the approval of the budgets of Pedro Sánchez’s Government . The Government’s roadmap is exposed and Esquerra speculates on taking its toll on those who have left it in the lurch. The Republicans target the common people and the resentment drags down their parent company, Sumar, a partner in the PSOE Government.
This was revealed a few days ago by Marta Rovira, general secretary of ERC, when she warned that seeing the persistence of the commons in wanting to veto the Catalan budget, Aragonès might choose to call Sumar’s command directly and request the mediation of vice president Yolanda Díaz: “Everyone must take responsibility for what they want for Catalonia, and it will have to be explained.” Rovira is credited with good negotiation skills, and she played a key role in unblocking the amnesty law, following having a conversation with Jordi Turull, general secretary of Junts per Catalunya. However, his threat to appeal to Sumar’s hierarchy in the Congress of Deputies to make the commons square in Parliament has fallen on deaf ears. “Madrid or La Caixa do not send us, I don’t know if everyone can say the same. The budgets of Catalonia are decided in Catalonia,” Jéssica Albiach said in Parliament this Wednesday. Junts per Catalunya has accused the Government of being a “subsidiary” for trying to save its budgets with the intervention of Yolanda Díaz.
After spending weeks stating that each negotiation was “a folder separate from the other,” ERC has warned that the failure of the accounts in Catalonia makes it rethink its strategy in Congress. The State budgets appear as a valuable wild card for revenge.
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