The last time a high-ranking US official visited Venezuela was in the late 1990s, when Hugo Chavez was still in power. That is why he was surprised, to put it mildly, by the unexpected trip to Caracas last weekend by Juan González, President Joe Biden’s National Security Adviser for the Western Hemisphere, to meet with Nicolás Maduro. A government, needless to say, that they do not recognize and with whom they broke diplomatic relations in 2019.
Perhaps most striking was the way the White House initially tried to justify it. Although the purpose of the trip, they said, was to obtain the release of two Americans detained in Venezuela -something that was achieved- and restart negotiations with the oppositiondead since last year, also sought to ensure America’s energy security.
Given that Washington was regarding to announce its decision to suspend the import of Russian oil as punishment for its invasion of Ukraine -which it did last Tuesday-, it was interpreted as an almost cynical move: for the sake of stabilizing crude oil prices, which are already were fired, the United States was willing to buy Venezuelan oil once more to fill that gap.
The news, as expected, fell like a bomb. Politicians from both parties, especially in the state of Florida, came out to harshly criticize her. “It cannot be that the punishment of one tyrant ends up strengthening another,” said Senator Bob Menéndez, who is very close to Biden. And with an additional ingredient, because everything happened on the eve of the meeting between the US president and Iván Duque, a leader who bet his entire presidency on an international campaign of isolation once morest Maduro as a strategy to restore democratic order in that country. .
With the passing of days and in the face of adverse reaction, Washington recalibrated the message. From energy security, he went on to speak of a possible “relief of pressure” once morest the Maduro government as long as concrete and irreversible steps are taken on the road to the restoration of democracy. He also framed González’s trip as a humanitarian mission for the release of detainees.
According to multiple sources, already at the meeting between the two leaders, Biden assured Duque that he had no plans to reactivate oil imports and that he considered Maduro a dictator. And then, in a joint statement, they declared that the Venezuelan crisis was a regional challenge and their commitment to support “the reestablishment of democracy, as a necessity to put an end to its political, economic and humanitarian crisis.”
the mark of war
So that there is no doubt regarding the importance he attaches to Colombia, Biden announced his intention to declare the country a Non-NATO Principal Ally, a designation that only 17 other countries in the world have and that the Duke himself described as proof that the Bilateral relations have reached their highest level of closeness in all of history.
However, despite the nuances and the change in tone, the feeling remained that the United States has begun a turn in its approach to Venezuela that is very marked by the Russian war in Ukraine and its geostrategic impact.
“The impact of Ukraine and the possible collapse of international oil prices – says Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue – undoubtedly influenced this. But it is something that came from before. Maduro is already strong, he has the power. That is obvious and the opposition is very fractured. And the strategy of waiting for the regime to fall (as a result of sanctions and isolation) has passed, it has already failed. The other option is a negotiation and the Biden administration was already in that, since they supported the dialogues in Mexico. Ukraine translates into a necessity for the United States, but also an opportunity to develop a new agenda that leads to an agreement”, says Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue.
Shifter is clear that, although uncomfortable, the turn with Venezuela will not affect the heart of US-Colombian bilateral relations, which is deep, strong and historic. But it does force us to rethink approaches.
For Washington, moreover, the issue is more complex and does not stop at the borders between the two countries. Even if the Ukrainian conflict ends tomorrow, the United States has understood that it has entered a new period of hostility with Russia that is already turning into a whole cold war that will have its Latin American chapter in which Venezuela –given its proximity to Russia– might become into an even greater factor of destabilization.
And, in that sense, it is in their national interest to try to weaken the ties between Caracas and Moscow. He knows that Maduro is in a rather awkward position. On the one hand, standing by Vladimir Putin’s side in his aggression once morest Ukraine carries a high political cost. On the other hand, he faces a new reality now that the West has blocked the Russian financial system that he used to collect profits from the sale of crude oil and was the way to evade the sanctions that the United States imposed on him three years ago.
Maduro’s response was very telling. He not only freed two Americans but promised to revive negotiations with the opposition. For Shifter, it is premature to think that this will lead to a reestablishment of relations or a breakdown of the nexus with Moscow. And everything will depend on how these dialogues progress. But as he told Time a senior source in the Biden administration: “The Ukraine thing opened a new window for us that we are taking advantage of.”
Oil, election issue
Still, Washington’s approach is also transactional. In the long term, his goal is to cut off dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, not only from the United States but from Europe. And to achieve this, you have to look for alternative sources that are not abundant. To unblock the flow of oil from Iran, it must first sign a new nuclear deal that is yet to be seen. And the Saudis, another important source in the international market, have their own interests and have so far resisted increasing production.
Although a majority of analysts agree that Venezuela’s current capacity, which produces less than 500,000 barrels per day, would have a negligible effect on the international market, they also know that it has enormous oil reserves and that its production might double or triple with a certain amount of energy. quickly if the sanctions are lifted and the investment returns.
For Biden, moreover, the oil issue is a domestic and electoral issue. The value of a gallon of gasoline is already through the roof (4.25 dollars on average), it will continue to grow and will trigger galloping inflation even more. And although Americans – according to the polls – seem to understand that part of the problem has been created by Putin, in the long run they think with their wallets and might punish the Democratic Party in the elections later this year and the presidential ones in 2024 if there is not a change in trajectory.
Of course, the administration knows that the rapprochement with Maduro will cost it in Florida, where hundreds of thousands of expatriate Venezuelans and Cubans live, but also that the high costs of gasoline will weigh more on it at the national level, where the dispute with the regime little it is understood.
The turn, that is also clear, will cause friction not only with Republicans but with Duque and other leaders of the region. The Colombian president was emphatic this week that he has not the slightest intention of changing his discourse towards Maduro, whom he considers responsible for crimes once morest humanity.
“With only months left in his presidency and for his and his party’s reasons, it would be surprising if Duque abandoned his hard line to align himself with Biden’s more conciliatory tone. Any softening would be used by Gustavo Petro, who leads the polls, to say that he was always wrong in his approach to Venezuela », says Shifter.
But it is a calculation that the administration, surely, is also billing. “No one knows who will win the elections. The only certain thing is that Duque leaves power in five months and someone else from the center or left will probably arrive who will have a vision more in tune with that of Biden, who seems to be betting on pragmatism and diplomacy, “says a diplomatic source in Washington.
That is what remains to be seen.