2023-07-02 17:59:52
Palakkad ∙ It is now a situation where accurate indications and signs should be given in advance, and the forecast of the rains that were falling in abundance during the monsoon season should be made. Dey, a prominent meteorologist and former secretary of the Department of Earth Sciences, said that there are signs of the weather today. M.Rajeevan says. Contrary to the observations and forecasts from Idavapathi, the month of June also passed without continuous rain. Scientists and experts discuss what the future climate will be.
Leading international weather agencies are not only monitoring the Indian monsoon, but the spread of the El Niña, a warm water current in the Pacific Ocean, which might severely affect the entire region in the coming days. Its spread will intensify in August. No region can escape El Niña’s influence. The same applies to India and Kerala, which was rained by monsoons. Experts also observe that this is indicated by the continuous intervals of monsoon.
The forecast of the Meteorological Center is that there is a possibility of heavy rain during the days from the 3rd to the 9th, but it also sees the possibility of limited to very heavy rain in an isolated place. Although the cyclone in the Bay of Bengal is weak, it is expected to strengthen in the coming day and bring rain. It is also concluded that by doing this, the Kalavrava Pathi will be activated.
Vehicles driving through heavy rain in Kasaragod city (file photo)
There is an argument that the cyclone will not last long. Clouds had formed over the Arabian Sea, but due to the cyclone, the winds were not strong, so they did not rain earlier. It is observed that when the wind direction came today, not enough clouds were formed. There is wind and there is not enough cloud. What arises quickly disappears. It is also concluded that it is due to the heat of the sea. The reports of private agencies are dry weather in most places due to El Niña.
The experience of many places is that the rain starts falling in the dark and ends suddenly. It rains heavily in some places. In the sea, there are thunderstorms and heavy rains in some places, according to fishermen. Reports are that Monsoon is active in Gewa and Mangaluru region. In the 2018 Orma, there is also concern that it will repeat itself, but scientists have concluded that there is no possibility of it in the El Niña year. The concern is not completely dismissed as the weather has changed in such a way that normal observation is not possible.
According to the data, this month of June received the least rainfall in 46 years. Normally 648 mm of rain should be received during this period but this time we got 260 mm. Not even half of what should have been received. Rainfall has been recorded in three Junes since 1900 including this time. 224.9 mm in 1962 and 196.4 mm in 1976 were the previous June months with the lowest rainfall.
If the rain in June is only nominal, it will not reduce the impact on the soil and the production area. Many subtle problems can later grow to the point where they severely affect daily life. The agricultural sector is obviously the first to be affected. Deya said that even if there is heavy rain in the next few days, it is not likely to last long. Rajeev observes. States including Rajasthan, which received heavy rain during the cyclone, have been without rain since then. Many states received 20 percent of the normal rainfall during this time. He said that it will be clear only by the end of July where the situation is going.
English Summary: A report on weather changes in Kerala and World
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