Kasikorn Research Center Co., Ltd. Weekly summary of money market and capital markets (23-27 May 2022) Summary of the movement of the baht. The baht hit a more than two-week high at 34.09 baht per dollar. The baht was driven by foreign investors’ net buy positions in bonds and Thai stocks. In addition, the dollar’s support began to slow down following the market had largely rebounded expectations regarding the Fed’s policy rate hike. while US economic data such as the PMI index in May, new home sales in April And the 1Q22 GDP (2nd edition) also came out weaker than market forecasts.
The dollar rebounded briefly in the middle of the week following minutes of the Fed meeting reflected the chances of a 50 bps rate hike at the June meeting. and July, but the dollar’s uptrend Still limited because the market returns to interest. Other leading central banks signal tightening, such as the ECB, which is likely to raise interest rates in the third quarter of this year. On Friday (27 May), the baht closed at 34.16 (following hitting the highest strength in Over two weeks at 34.09 during the week) compared to 34.26 baht per dollar. On the previous Friday (20 May)
While between May 23-27, foreign investors bought a net of Thai stocks of 6,870.3 million baht while having a status of NET INFLOW, entering the bond market at 10,643.2 million baht (even with a net purchase of 20,589.2 million baht of bonds, but has expired debt instruments up to 9,946 million baht)
Next week (30 May-3 June), Kasikorn Bank sees the baht move at 33.70-34.50 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, the Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors that need to be monitored, such as the BOT’s April Salary Economic Report. Fed official statement Ukraine-Russia situation and the direction of foreign capital
while the important US economic numbers include the number of non-farm payrolls. unemployment rate Private Employment from ADP Consumer Confidence Index May and manufacturing PMI/ISM index in May Factory orders, JOLTS data for April and the Fed’s Beige Book report. Markets are also waiting for the May manufacturing/services PMI. of China, Europe and England as well.
Summary of the movement of the Thai stock market The Thai stock market recovered at the end of the week, pushing the SET Index up slightly from the previous week. Thai stocks rose at the beginning of the week, led by bank stocks that responded to news reports that the Bank of Thailand is preparing to extend the NPA sale period. However, the SET Index fell later on international stock markets amid concerns over the global economy. before moving up for the rest of the week. After the Fed meeting minutes reflected the policy interest rate hike in line with market expectations.
In addition, the Thai stock market was also supported by foreign investors’ buying in various stocks. Especially energy and finance sectors. On Friday (27 May), the SET index closed at 1638.75 points, up 0.97% from the previous week. The average daily trading value was 63,544.72 million baht, down 11.74% from the previous week, while the mai index rose 2.28% to close at 639.94 points.
For the next week (May 30-June 3), Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. sees the Thai stock index as support at 1,625 and 1,600 points, while resistance is at 1,650 and 1,665 points, respectively. Thailand assesses the factors Important to be monitored include measures to stimulate the Thai economy in the second half of the year following the government Covid-19 situation Foreign capital direction Tensions between Russia and Ukraine including statements from Fed officials The important US economic data is data on non-farm payrolls. private sector employment numbers and the unemployment rate in May While other foreign factors include China’s May PMI index, as well as the consumer price index in May. (introductory) of the Eurozone
