2024-03-30 03:53:59
KBANK expects the baht next week to move in the range of 36.00-36.80 baht/dollar. Watch out! Thai inflation, direction of foreign capital foreign economy
Kasikorn Bank (KBANK) views the movement of the baht next week (1-5 April) at the level of 36.00-36.80 baht/dollar, while Kasikorn Research Center Evaluate important factors that need to be monitored, including March inflation numbers in Thailand. Signals of foreign capital (Flow) and the direction of Asian currencies
While important US economic figures include the ISM/PMI index for the manufacturing and service sectors. ADP Private Sector Employment Numbers, Non-Agricultural Employment Numbers and March Unemployment Rate Numbers of job openings and labor turnover rates (JOLTS) and factory orders in February. Including data on the number of weekly jobless claims. In addition, the market is also waiting to follow March inflation numbers in the Eurozone and March manufacturing and service PMI indexes for Japan, China, the Eurozone and the UK.
The baht reached its weakest level in more than 5 months at 36.54 baht/dollar before recovering at the end of the week. The baht strengthened slightly at the beginning of the week in line with the increase in gold prices in the world market. But it began to gradually weaken back in the middle of the week. After Thai export data came out lower than market expectations. (Exports in February +3.6% YoY, lower than the market expected at +4.2% YoY)
In addition, the baht weakened following the movement of other currencies in the region, led by the yen which recorded its weakest value in 34 years and the Chinese yuan amid expectations that You may see signs of monetary easing from the Chinese government to support the economy going forward. Meanwhile, the dollar was supported by US economic data. that came out better than the market expected (such as 4th quarter GDP of 2023, number of people applying for weekly unemployment benefits and the total number of home sales contracts awaiting closing) and a statement from a Fed official which reflected that The timing of the US policy interest rate cut It may not happen anytime soon.
However, the baht cleared the period of weakness and recovered to strengthen at the end of the week. It is supported by the soaring price of gold in the world market. and net buying signals for Thai bonds by foreign investors
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