2023-09-23 06:22:00
Kasikorn Bank (KBANK) views the movement of the baht next week (25-29 Sep.) at the level of 35.70-36.40 baht per US dollar. From the market closing on Friday, September 22, 2023 at 36.00 baht per dollar.
Last week, the baht depreciated past the 36.00 level and reached the weakest level in 10 months at 36.34 baht per dollar. The baht gradually depreciates Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened both before and after the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, with the views of Fed officials changing in the dot plot, which indicates that US policy interest rate It may remain at a high level for a long time. and estimates of the US economy which has been revised up Reflecting the Fed’s continued tightening signal. Even in this meeting The Fed will keep interest rates at the same level of 5.25-5.50% and leave open the possibility of raising interest rates one more time this year as before.
Moreover, the depreciation of the baht during the week was consistent with net selling pressure in the Thai bond market by foreign investors. This is partly due to concerns about the trend of Thai government bond issuance that may increase in the next fiscal year. However, the baht partially recovered at the end of the week. This may be an adjustment to market positions before the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on September 27.
For next week, important factors to follow include the results of the MPC meeting and Thai export figures in August. Direction of foreign capital and the yuan
Important US economic figures include the July house price index. New home sales Durable goods orders Number of home sales contracts pending closing and PCE/Core PCE Price Index for August, Confidence Index and Inflation Expectations from Consumer Perspectives for September. GDP numbers for 2Q23 (final) and the number of people applying for weekly unemployment benefits. In addition, the market is also waiting to follow August industrial profit data in China and September inflation in the Eurozone as well.
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