2023-12-29 01:07:15
HoonSmart.com>>Kasikorn Securities expects stocks in the first week of the new year to stand above 1,400 points or not? Keep an eye on fund flow following 2023, the index dropped 15.50%. As for the baht, Kasikornbank sees a range of 33.80-34.50 baht per dollar. After reaching the strongest level in 5 months at 34.10 baht in the last week of the year. from the strong buying of stocks and debt instruments by foreign investors The Fed is set to lower interest rates next year.
Kasikorn Securities Company Looking at the stock market next week (2-5 Jan 2024), the stock index has support levels at 1,400 and 1,380 points, while resistance levels are at 1,430 and 1,450 points, respectively.
Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors that need to be monitored, including inflation in December. and the direction of foreign capital
Important US economic data includes the ISM/PMI manufacturing and service index. ADP private sector employment data, non-agricultural employment figures and unemployment rate for December. Fed meeting minutes Including the number of people applying for weekly unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, other foreign factors include the December PMI index of China, the Eurozone and Japan. as well as the December Consumer Price Index. of the euro zone
For the stock market in 2023, last week the index closed positive and still stood above 1,400 points, supported by expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate cut in 2024. Exports in November. 2023 of Thailand that continues to expand as well as the purchasing power of domestic institutional investors, including window dressing at the end of the year. However, some investors postponed investing before the New Year holiday. As a result, trading volumes are quite light. Moreover, stocks in the finance group dropped sharply at the end of the week, contrary to the overall market. due to concerns regarding the impact of responsible and fair lending criteria that will begin in early 2024
On Thursday, Dec. 28, 2023, the SET Index closed at 1,415.85 points, an increase of 0.77% from the level at the end of the previous week. While the average daily trading value was 35,725.20 million baht, a decrease of 0.43%, the mai index increased 0.61% to close at 411.61 points.
Overall in 2023, the SET Index decreased 15.15% to close at the end of 2023 at 1,415.85 points from 1,668.66 points at the end of 2022, gradually declining since the beginning of the year amid pressure factors both at home and abroad, such as concerns regarding Tighten the Fed’s monetary policy. Problems in the US banking sector Political situation in the country Issues of tension in Israel The rise of US bond yields As well as signs of a slow recovery of the Thai economy, the SET Index hit its lowest point in more than 3 years at 1,354.73 points around mid-December. before recovering somewhat at the end of the year Received signals from the Fed which indicated that The U.S. interest rate uptrend cycle is over and there might be three rate cuts in 2024.
As for the trend of the baht value next week (2-5 Jan. 2024), Kasikorn Bank sees a movement frame at the level of 33.80-34.50 baht per dollar. After reaching the strongest level in 5 months at 34.10 baht per dollar. in the last week of 2023, with the baht and most currencies in the region still strengthening amid selling pressure for the dollar. and the downward adjustment of US bond yields From the trend of speculation regarding the possibility of lowering the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rate in 2024 following the US PCE Price Index and Core PCE Price Index slowed down more than expected in November. In addition, the strengthening of the baht is also in line with the increase in the price of gold in the world market and net buying pressure of Thai stocks and bonds by foreigners as well.
On Thursday, Dec. 28, 2023, the baht closed at 34.16 baht per dollar. Compared to the level of 34.64 baht per dollar. On the previous Friday (22 Dec.) for the status of foreign investors’ investment portfolios between 25-28 Dec. 2023, foreign investors made net purchases of 3,175 million baht and 4,651 million baht of Thai stocks and bonds. baht respectively
For the overall picture in 2023, the baht fluctuates in the range of 32.57-37.24 baht per dollar. Before closing the market at the end of 2023 at 34.16 baht per dollar, appreciating 1.3% from the end-2022 closing level of 34.61 baht per dollar.
At the beginning of the year, the baht strengthened amid concerns regarding a US recession. and the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Fed. However, the baht turned to depreciate following economic and labor market data in the US remained strong and inflation remained above the Fed’s target. This causes the Fed to continue raising policy interest rates until the FOMC meeting in July 2023, along with the uncertainty of domestic political factors and the slow pace of recovery of the Thai economy. The baht recovered once more in the last quarter of the year. amid expectations that the US policy interest rate It has reached its highest point at 5.25-5.50% and there is a chance that the Fed will reduce interest rates in 2024. In addition, the baht has additional positive factors from the increase in gold prices in the world market as well.
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