Washington.-Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald J. Trump in three key states that will determine the November presidential election, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College, the latest sign of a dramatic shift in the Democratic ticket following Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race.
Harris leads Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50% to 46% among likely voters in each state. The polls were conducted Aug. 5-9.
The polls, among the first high-quality surveys in those districts since Biden’s withdrawal, come after nearly a year of polls showing Biden either tied or with a slight lead over the Democratic president.
While the reshaped race is still in its volatile early weeks, Democrats are now in a noticeably stronger position in these three battleground states that have been key to the party’s victories (or losses).
Still, the results show vulnerabilities for Harris. Voters prefer Trump on handling the economy and immigration, issues that remain central to the presidential race.
Much of the Democratic new strength is due to improved voter perceptions of Harris. Her favorability rating has risen 10 percentage points among registered voters in Pennsylvania in the past month alone. Voters also view the current vice president as smarter and temperamentally better suited to governing than Trump.
Les Lanser, a retiree from Holland, Michigan, who typically votes Republican, said he was considering backing Harris in November. While he disagrees with some Democratic policies, he said he couldn’t stand the former Republican president’s “disrespectful” and “unacceptable” attitude. Lanser, 89, said he regrets supporting Trump in 2016.
The polls offer an early snapshot of a race that was transformed in just over two weeks. The whirlwind of political change captured the nation’s attention and reinvigorated some voters who approached the Biden-Trump rematch with a deep sense of dread.
It’s unclear how much of Harris’ surge in the polls is due to heightened excitement around her rise to the top of the ticket, or whether that boost will last. Candidates traditionally gain a few percentage points in the days and weeks after their running mate is announced. Harris announced her pick of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on Tuesday, as voters were responding to this poll.
Still, there is little doubt that replacing Biden on the ticket has boosted Democratic enthusiasm about the election. Among Democrats, voter satisfaction with their choice of candidates has soared since Harris entered the race, rising 27 percentage points in the three key states since May.
Democrats are now more likely than Republicans to say they are satisfied with their candidate choices, a change from three months ago, when the question was last asked.
John Jordan, a Democratic voter from Croydon, Pennsylvania, praised Biden’s accomplishments as president and said he would have voted for him again in November. But his friends and family are much more “encouraged” to support Harris, he said.
“I think she is the best person to move this country forward,” said Jordan, 60, who works as a school administrator. “I will also go a step further and say that I am very proud to be a part of this historic moment and I hope that, yes, she becomes the first African-American/Asian woman to be in the White House. I think this is a very exciting moment.”
In all three battlegrounds, Harris is in a stronger position than Biden was in May with most demographic groups, including white voters without a college degree.
The No. 2 in the administration is doing better with key sectors of the Democratic Party coalition that had begun to erode under Biden, especially Black and younger voters. But she also appears to be holding on to older voters, who were some of the president’s most fervent supporters.
The share of people who said they trusted Harris to handle economic issues was higher than the share Biden received in May, though she is still nine points behind Trump on an issue where the Republican nominee has long held the advantage. But she has a 24 percentage point lead when it comes to who voters trust to handle abortion, an issue considered one of the strongest for Democrats: In May, Biden held a 13 percentage point lead on abortion.
Trump’s attacks on Harris as “unintelligent” and “incompetent” have not resonated with most voters. Nearly two-thirds of voters view Harris as intelligent, more than say the same about Trump. Among whites without a college degree, a demographic that tends to favor Republicans, Harris is widely viewed as “smart.”
But polls also indicate clear vulnerabilities for the new Democratic presidential nominee. Forty-two percent of voters said Harris was too liberal; 37 percent said the same about Biden last October. Trump and his campaign have sought to define Harris as a left-wing extremist in pursuit of those extreme endorsements. In recent days, the candidate has walked back some of her past positions on issues like border enforcement and fracking, as well as her support for a single-payer health care system.
Jonathan Ball, a flooring installer from Jackson, Michigan, said he thought Trump would do more to help American workers than Harris. “I think she’s more liberal. I don’t think she’s totally pro-middle class,” said Ball, 46, who plans to endorse Trump for a third time this year. “I see her as biased. You know, pro-rich.”
Beyond opinions on Trump, polls picked up mixed feelings about Republican running mate JD Vance. He had a rocky debut on the campaign trail after a series of past comments drew fresh scrutiny, including a 2021 claim that the U.S. was being run by “women with cats and no children” like Harris.
In all three states, independent voters view Vance broadly unfavorably: About a third said they were dissatisfied and another 17 percent described themselves as “angry” about his selection. Surprisingly, he receives lukewarm support from a notable number of Republican voters.
By comparison, Walz received higher ratings within his own party. In Pennsylvania, the only state where the poll was conducted entirely after the governor was announced as Harris’s running mate, 48 percent of Democrats said they were enthusiastic about the vice presidential nominee.
Barbara Kampa, a two-time Trump voter from Greendale, Wisconsin, said she was shocked when she first heard Vance speak at the campaign hearing.
“I thought, oh, shit. I don’t know how to say it nicely, but shit,” said Kampa, 64, who is retired and plans to vote for Trump again. “You can’t just go out in the street like it’s the Wild West and start shooting. That puts people off.”
The new polls also included crucial Senate races in the three key states. Democrats have a slight edge among likely voters in Michigan and larger leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Just a few months ago, Democratic Senate candidates were far ahead of Biden, a sign of the president’s weakness. Harris, by comparison, is roughly on par with her party’s Senate contenders in all three states.Clarín.
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2024-08-14 15:05:45
