The June inflation was 5.3% and in the first six months of the year it accumulated a variation of 36.2%reported this Thursday the Indec. In this way, the year-on-year rise in prices, that is, that of the last twelve months, reached 64% and was once once more the highest figure in the last three decades.
The monthly figure for price increases was very similar to the one in May, when the IPC marked 5.1 percent. The inflationary peak took place in March, with an index of 6.7%, while in April a deceleration to 6 percent had been registered. The index for June, thus, marked a brake in that deceleration process of the last months that the Government pondered.
Analyzed by items, those that increased above the average were Health (7.4%), Housing, water, electricity, gas and others (6.8%), Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (6.7%), Restaurants and hotels (6.2%), Home equipment and maintenance (6%) and Clothing and footwear (5.8 percent). Below the general 5.3% were Miscellaneous goods and services (5%), Transportation (4.7%), Food and Beverages (4.6%)Recreation and culture (4.3%), Education (2%) and Communication (0.4 percent).
At the category level, the products included in the Seasonal category (6.6%) led the increase, explained in part by the increase in Vegetables, tubers and legumes. Further behind were Regulated (5.3%), influenced by increases in prepaid medicine, electricity and gas rates, and cigarettes. Lastly, the Core CPI registered an increase of 5.1% in June.
In year-on-year terms, above the average of 64% reached in June, sectors such as Clothing and footwear (83.6%), Restaurants and hotels (81.9%), Health (67.2%) and Food and non-alcoholic beverages (66.4%).
Es the first price data since the arrival of Silvina Batakis to the Ministry of Economy, although it still reflects the dynamics of prices that were registered during the last part of the management of Martin Guzman. The new head of the Palacio de Hacienda spoke at the public presentation of her first steps at the head of the economic team regarding the need to anchor expectations.
“We are working with the businessmen. We have to take into account that when the war continues to deepen and the pressure on food can generate an opportunity for us to export primary products, something that the world needs, but that will generate inflationary pressure. It would be very unprofessional to risk a projection in this situation of global imbalance”, he explained at the press conference.
That projection to which he refers is the one shared -for the moment- by the International Monetary Fund with the Executive Power. One of Guzmán’s last actions at the head of the ministry was to negotiate the recalibration of some variables and quarterly objectives included in the agreement, among them, the inflation projection. In that sense, it went from an expected ceiling of 48% to 62%, a figure that has also become outdated in light of the inflationary dynamics of recent months.
According to the Market Expectations Survey (REM) of the Central Bank, inflation would reach a level of 76% during 2022, so the estimate increased by 3.4 percentage points in relation to last month’s survey. In any case, that projection is already “old”.
It happens that this report compiled the data of the consultants and investment funds that participated in the survey between June 27 and 30, that is to saybefore Guzmán’s resignation and the strong exchange rate and financial volatility that it unleashed.
Those days included a marked jump in all variants of the dollar except for the wholesaler managed by the Central Bank, and there was a strong issue by the BCRA for the purchase of Treasury bonds in pesos, which had also been dragging down in recent weeks. These are two factors that might have an even greater impact on this month’s price index, which will be known in mid-August..
Regarding the coming months, the Central Bank survey maintained the trend that following June there will be months of decreasing inflation, although it does so at higher values throughout the curve. In the forecast between June and November, there are increases of between 0.2 and 0.5 points in all months, which would leave a result of inflation between 4.8% in July to 4.3% towards the end of the year.
The new monthly inflation figure will put renewed pressure on the interest rate scheme supported by the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank. This Wednesday the Treasury issued debt in pesos at a fixed rate and had to offer a title with an annual interest of 63% to collect some $60,000 million. The Central Bank awaited the result of that debt placement and the June CPI to decide on any readjustment in the rate of the Leliq and passes, and therefore, what the fixed terms pay for the saver.
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