Important points to watch for US stocks:
This week, investors will pay attention to the US CPI data, and several central bank officials will speak.U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond YieldComes to 3.734%. U.S. stock futures were mixed on Monday (12th),Dow JonesFutures fell 0.12%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.01%,Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.31%.
The super-strong non-agricultural employment population in the United States in January made investors start to revise their forecasts for the peak of this cycle of interest rate hikes, and this Tuesday (14th) the CPI in the United States in January attracted special attention.
The U.S. inflation rate rose to a 40-year high in the middle of last year, but has been lower than market forecasts for three consecutive months. Economists predict that the overall annual inflation rate may fall to 6.2% in January from 6.5% in the previous month. , the monthly growth rate rebounded to 0.4% from 0.1% in the previous month.
As the market judges whether interest rate hikes are coming to an end, several central bank officials will also speak this week, including John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who has permanent voting rights in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, has voting rights.
Jeff Muhlenkamp, founder of the Muhlenkamp Fund, said that while the Fed may try to achieve a soft landing, high interest rates will continue to sow the seeds of market disaster. He believes that the Fed’s aggressive policy tightening may end in a recession, and in the worst case,S&P 500 IndexIt is down 30% from last week’s close.
James Abate, fund manager of Center American Select Equity Fund, pointed out that the rise in US stocks is a bear market trap. At a time when US stock earnings have slowed down, the gains in the past four months have madeS&P 500 IndexThe price-to-earnings ratio is higher than its 10-year average.
“In this environment, it’s hard for me to see how the market can go up significantly,” he said. “You’re dealing with an asymmetrical market, and if everything works well, there’s more limited benefit from P/E growth. But If a recession does occur, it will face significant declines.”
David Kotok, chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, is also skeptical of the recent rally and some of the stocks currently leading the gains, saying the firm has underweight many large technology and growth stocks that rebound in 2023 and is more bullish on health care and Defense stocks, and maintain a large cash allocation.
U.S. stocks rose and fell in the previous trading day:
Today’s important economic data:
none
Important stock dynamics:
1. Meta(META-US)
After announcing layoffs of up to 11,000 employees in November last year, news once again pointed out that Facebook’s parent company Meta (META-US) is planning further layoffs in March this year to improve efficiency.
Uncertainty about budgets and staffing cuts has prevented management from planning future workloads, and many jobs have come to a standstill, employees familiar with the matter said. Insiders said that projects and decisions that could be finalized in a few days before may now take months to finalize, and the same is true for high-priority projects such as metaverse and . Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the layoffs has also contributed to low morale among Meta employees.