2024-10-29 16:18:00
This weekend, a number of Latin American countries held elections, with all opposition parties winning and the ruling parties losing. In this sense, the director of the “Le Monde Diplomatique Cono Sur” edition, Jose Nathanson, He believes that we are in an era of “global instability” in which governments find it difficult to grasp power and create hegemony. “There is an unease about democracies that cuts across political choices,” he declared in a statement. Fontevecchia modelgo through internet tv y Introduction to radio (1190 am).
José Natanson is a journalist specializing in international politics. He writes regularly for various media in Argentina and Latin America, hosts radio and television programs, and serves as editor-in-chief of the magazine Nueva Sociedad. Currently, he is the Director of Le Monde Diplomatique Southern Cone.
Yesterday we made one Pillar Compare the cultural malaise produced by digital capitalism to that produced by the Industrial Revolution, when Marx and Engels proposed that all solid matter would disappear into thin air. We wonder if the same thing is happening now, at least in this weekend’s elections, or in the past three elections in Latin America, where the opposition always won and the governing party lost. Can we find any reference points from the state of the world before the industrial revolution that is happening today? Is Latin America an example?
Dictators don’t like this
The practice of professional and critical journalism is a fundamental pillar of democracy. That’s why it bothers those who think they have the truth.
I think so Dissatisfaction with democratic institutions cuts across political choices. In fact, in almost every country, becoming an official political party is doomed to failure, whether extreme or right-wing.
For example, in Brazil, the PT lost and Bolsonaro won, then Bolsonaro lost re-election and the PT won, and on Sunday the PT lost the São Paulo election. If you look at it country by country We are in a period of global instability, It is difficult for governments to maintain their power and establish hegemony. There is a book called impossible hegemony The article was written by Trotskyist activist Fernando Rosso, who analyzed The difficulty of establishing lasting hegemony What was the dictatorship cycle of the 1970s, the democratic resurgence of the 1980s, and the neoliberal cycle of the 1990s (which lasted 10 years in some countries)? Or the cycle of the New Left in the 21st century.
We are far from being able to build a new era in Latin America. I have no idea. Then, there are some interesting exceptions, like Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) won, governed very successfully, and managed to get his disciples elected. Another exception is El Salvador, where Buckler It has huge popular support.
Day 323: Everything solid is gone in South America
Do you find Obrador to be a mild populist, like Lula was at the time?
Yes, it seems to me that the word populism means too much, but ultimately it says very little, and it often says more about the person who says the word than what it is trying to convey.
I think there is indeed such a situation Populist Operations of Staff Identityespecially in countries where societies feel severely abandoned. I think, for example, Bukele was elected president and addressed issues like insecurity.
That is to say, Populism alone is not enough There also has to be some material basis that doesn’t work and the government manages to make it work so that they continue to vote. One could argue that Fujimori is a populist and they voted for him because he solved the ex-flight problem and brought down inflation through the Shining Path.
control anger
Can we say that Obrador is also successful in economic terms?
Yes, because it has a very sound and prudent macro economy. He had a very broad social program, which he did not invent, but he added a populist operation of identification with the people, which Maria Esperanza Casullo calls it in her book Why populism works: Because it achieves identification between leaders and people.
I think these things explain why Obrador continues in Mexico and Bukele continues in El Salvador, and why he failed in other contexts, such as in Chile, Brazil or Argentina.
Is it true that the party in power almost always fails, except when the president is able to solve very important problems?
Yes, it has to solve a specific problem, and if it can also create an emotional and symbolic identity and representational connection with the people, I think that’s the key to success.
Endorsements: Trump and Milley
Do you think Milei can achieve this by solving economic problems?
Yes, unfortunately. I say unfortunate because I don’t like Millay, but I think she is trying to solve a fundamental problem in Argentina at extremely high social cost and with great social pain, which is Overall economic stabilityThe fact that Argentina has no currency is trying to keep the dollar in check.
We once said that governing Argentina means governing the dollar and the streets, and it is trying to govern both. In addition to this, added coupled with identification with a social class that feels abandoned Or betrayed by previous political experience, be it Marxism or Kirchnerism. If Milley can succeed in lowering inflation, stabilizing the macroeconomy, and showing next year that some areas of the economy are returning to growth, I think yes, it has those possibilities.
Allegations of fraud and violence? What happens if Donald Trump loses the election
What do you think are the connections between Milley and Trump? Is it correct to think that Trump is recovering and today he is being positioned as the likely winner of the next election?
I found the touch point very relevant, firstly because I like to compare countries that are somewhat similar, and the fact is, at this point in the game Argentina looks similar USAjust like when we compare education in Santiago del Estero to Finland. In my opinion, to be interesting, a comparison must first be relevant. So comparing Argentina to Brazil, Chile or Colombia is fine, comparing it to the United States is far from good.
I think it’s not just the comparison; Agree with Milei’s wishes trump card Expectations that a Trump administration would bring concrete benefits to Argentina may be overdone.
I think it can gain some things, particularly support in negotiations with the IMF, but I think it can also cause harm in a direct way, for example, if Trump withdraws support for Ukraine and European countries that support Ukraine , and forcing a peace agreement The trade dispute between Ukraine and Russia is likely to reduce the price of food raw materials exported by Argentina, which are largely the same as those exported by Ukraine. The picture of possible pros and cons from a Trump victory is complicatedI think that’s what Millay is betting on.
Regarding your second question, yes, that’s what I’ve learned: the rise of Trump, especially in Pennsylvania in recent days. Even by millions of votes, he could be re-elected President of the United States, so let’s hang in there.
As happened in the race against Hillary Clinton, when Clinton had more votes, Trump became president in the Electoral College. Let’s stick with it, exactly.
Visual Fourier Transform
1730219557
#José #Nathanson #Progovernment #doomed #failure #countries
