- Looking ahead to 2025, the political specialist raised during the online conversationfour possible scenarios ranging from the forced permanence of the “Venezuelan regime” to a possible democratic transition
By the Medianálisis team, Cotejo.info and OVFN
On Friday, September 20, in the framework of the negotiations Country Outlook 2024organized by Medianalysis and the Centro GumillaVenezuelan political scientist and analyst John Magdaleno addressed the events following the July 28 presidential election in Venezuela.
Piero Trepiccione, deputy director of the Gumilla Center, moderated the broadcast, which also has the support of the Venezuelan Observatory of Fake News and Cotejo.info. The meeting addressed recent international actions, such as the recognition of Edmundo González Urrutia as “president-elect” by the European Parliament.
Magdaleno stressed that, after the elections of July 28, Venezuela faces an unprecedented scenario in 25 years: “This is the first time in 25 years that the opposition has provoked a crisis of legitimacy of such magnitude.” However, he stressed that the popular mobilization that began on July 29 and 30 was quickly repressed by the Venezuelan government, with arbitrary arrests and human rights violations.
Repression and international pressure
According to the Venezuelan political scientist and analyst, repression is also present in the public sector, reflected in the mass dismissals after the elections. Therefore, the increase in international pressure on the government of Nicolás Maduro led to the European Parliament recognizing Edmundo González Urrutia as “president-elect”.
During the broadcast of Country Outlook 2024Trepiccione asked about the differences between the international recognition of Juan Guaidó in 2018 and the current support for González Urrutia. Magdaleno explained that the situations are different:
“Guaidó was the president of Parliament and was recognized as interim president, but he did not have the legal standing to be president. On the other hand, González Urrutia was voted for by more than 67% of the voters, according to the opposition’s minutes, which creates a crisis of legitimacy for the government.”
Lack of transparency of the CNE
Magdaleno also addressed the lack of transparency of the National Electoral Council (CNE) in not publishing the official and disaggregated results of the presidential election, a situation that he described as serious and unprecedented in the last 25 years.
“This is the first presidential election where the results are not published table by table, which represents a violation of the Organic Law of Electoral Processes”said the political scientist, referring to the articles that establish that the total and proclamation must be carried out within a maximum period of 48 hours, and that the results must be published within 30 days.
Four possible scenarios for January 2025
Looking ahead, Magdaleno outlined four possible scenarios for the upcoming January 10, 2025, the date on which the new presidential term officially begins in Venezuela.
The first scenario is that “the authoritarian regime is maintained by force.” The second – which he called “the great deception” – envisages an attempt at negotiation between the government and the opposition.
For the third scenario, Magdaleno estimates a possible configuration in alignments of actors “for and against the Venezuelan political regime” and gave as an example the measure taken by the European Parliament. And, finally, the most optimistic scenario – which he calls “transition to democracy” – would be the result of a number of events that would fracture the dominant coalition.
To learn more details of the analysis made by political scientist John Magdaleno during his participation in Country Outlook 2024you can access the recording available at the Medianálisis YouTube channel.
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2024-09-25 06:36:18
