2023-11-13 19:01:58
The leaders of the United States and China will meet for the first time in a year at the APEC summit in San Francisco. Their objective will be to relaunch a stalled dialogue.
United States President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will meet on Wednesday, for the second time, on the sidelines of the 30th APEC summit in San Francisco, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. This will be an opportunity for the two leaders to try to get back on better foundations.
“Xi Jinping’s coming to the United States is a sign of goodwill.”
One year before the presidential election, the American president intends to take advantage of the APEC meeting to “reestablish dialogue with Xi Jinping“, according to a US official.
The affair of balloons, shot down by the American air force to the great anger of Beijing, was only a pretext to rekindle their differences around Taiwan and trade issues.
Xi Jinping has not visited the United States since 2017, when he met then-President Donald Trump. This summit will be an opportunity to talk regarding “world peace and development”a Chinese government spokesperson said on Monday.
“Xi Jinping’s visit to the United States is a sign of goodwill. I don’t expect a big agreement, but the fact that they are talking to each other is very promising“, explains Sven Biscop, director at the Royal Egmont Institute and professor at Ghent University.
Reestablish communication
“Reestablishing military dialogue between Beijing and Washington would allow de-escalation.”
Antagonisms between the two countries have exacerbated over the past three years, with President Xi Jinping developing an assertive international policy with a view to bring China to first place in the ranking of world powers.
The visit of the President of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi in Taipei, in August 2022, in the midst of a military crisis in the Taiwan Strait, provoked the ire of Beijing. Pelosi intended to reassure Taiwan of the United States’ unwavering support in the event of Chinese aggression. In response, Beijing had severed its military communications with the United States.
The United States, engaged in a struggle between “democracies and autocracies”, feared a scenario in the Pacific comparable to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Since then, water has flowed under the bridges. The first objective of the meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden will be restoration of communication channels between the American and Chinese armies, announced the White House. It would allow to avoid a further deterioration of relations between the two great powerswhile Taiwan must hold elections in two months.
“The reestablishment of military dialogue between Beijing and Washington would allow a de-escalation, without going so far as to speak of appeasement,” continues Sven Biscop. “The status quo regarding the Taiwan regime is the best solution for everyone. Despite its assertive rhetoric, I don’t think China wants to make the situation worse.”
Trade war
The second objective of the meeting will be toappease the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The United States has recently increased economic sanctions once morest China and its companies, such as Huawei. They also have restricts electronic chip exports that can be used by Beijing for military purposes.
“We are not looking to decouple our economies.”
China, for its part, has limited exports of critical materials used in the manufacture of semiconductors.
“It is in their interest to renew relations. Perhaps more for China, in fact, because it needs strong economic ties with Europe and the United States“, specifies Sven Biscop.
On this point, a preparatory meeting between US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Deputy Prime Minister He Lifeng on Friday proved positive. “We are not seeking to decouple our economies”, Yellen said. “It would harm the United States and China, and it would have a destabilizing effect on the world.”
Progress has also been made on the climate fielda matter where the United States and China, the two largest polluters on the planet, agreed last week to “work together” within the framework of COP28.
Xi Jinping, who dreams of himself as an “eternal president”, needs stability to resolve his country’s economic problems. China faces a severe slowdown in its growth due to a cold snap in real estate and the massive debt of the giants of the sector. The situation is such that “the great helmsman” would be contested within the powerful communist party.
“Some actors within the Chinese Communist Party are not happy with Xi Jinpingand want to ensure that he does not have a fourth term,” says Sven Biscop. Faced with domestic challenges, the Chinese president no longer has the leisure to confront external tensions.
Isolate Moscow
Third objective: by relaunching dialogue with Beijing, Joe Biden is showing himself to be pragmatic and opens a space for dialogue on the wars in Ukraine and Israel.
Vladimir Putin, indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court, was asked not to go to San Francisco.
The American president should, among other things, ask his counterpart to crack down on Chinese companies selling sensitive equipment to Russia to support his war once morest Ukraine.
By speaking with Xi Jinping, Biden also establishes him as a privileged interlocutor, while sending Russia to the backbenches of APEC. The Russian President Vladimir Putin, indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court, was asked not to go to San Francisco. He will be represented there by his Deputy Prime Minister Alexeï Overtchouk. A snub for the master of the Kremlin, in full communication offensive since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas.
Joe Biden is operating on a minefield. The proximity of the presidential election requires him to play tight. Getting closer to Xi Jinping is a useful strategic option, but he must not hand the Republicans the stick to be beaten. Donald Trump had made rivalry with China his mantra to protect American industry, and this was one of the rare decisions credited to him by his detractors.
What to expect from the 2023 APEC Summit?
The leaders of the 21 members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum are meeting from Wednesday to Friday in San Francisco for the 30th summit of this regional organization aimed at strengthening economic growth and cooperation between Asia and the Pacific.
APEC is unique in thatit brings together economies and countries, which allows the participation of Taiwan and Hong Kong. But it does not include India, the most populous country on the planet.
The United States has chosen “Creating a resilient and sustainable future for all” as the theme for this edition. APEC leaders are expected to discuss global issues ranging from the war between Israel and Hamas, to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to Taiwanhuman rights, as well as trade and economic relations.
APEC members are divided over Middle East conflict, with Arab countries calling for a ceasefire. Pro-Palestinian demonstrations are planned during the summit.
APEC represents approximately 62% of global GDP and almost half of global trade. Its members are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea , Peru, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the United States and Vietnam.
The summary
- US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will meet on Wednesday on the sidelines of the annual APEC summit in San Francisco.
- The meeting of the leaders of the two world powers must serve to restore communication following a succession of crises around Taiwan and the deterioration of their commercial relations.
- For Xi Jinping, faced with lower economic growth, the challenge is to find greater stability.
- Joe Biden will seek dialogue on Ukraine and the war in Israel, while showing an isolated Russia, Putin being “persona non grata” in the United States.
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