2023-10-06 06:00:00
The 2030 World Cup will take place in six countries:Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay will host three of the 104 matches of the 2030 World Cup, while the main host countries are Morocco, Spain and Portugal. A path is also open for 2030 to Saudi Arabia or China
Jean-Baptiste Guégansports geopolitologist, spoke to the microphone ofEric Libois on the future of the World Cups and FIFA:
“Gianni Infatino manages to satisfy everyone and especially their interests. By choosing Morocco, Spain and Portugal, he is able to speak to both the African Confederation and Europe. But also to celebrate the centenary of the 2030 World Cup with the South American Confederation. Which opens the way in 2034 to Saudi Arabia or China. It puts the interests of the present and the future to once once more increase the interests of FIFA. Once once more, it’s clever. For 2034, there is a real opportunity for Saudi Arabia, but we must not neglect another player that we have not seen in recent years and which will probably return, that is China. And that also says a lot regarding the balance of power on the international scene. Because, in both cases, these are actors who are divisive, actors who are close. And FIFA, once once more, will probably play into the hands of authoritarian regimes where it should rather be an actor in the promotion of democracy and human rights.”
So this is double talk from Infantino? How much longer will this double talk last?
“So the problem with this double talk from Infantino is that today, it corresponds to the reality of the world. The world is becoming de-Westernized. Today, we are literally seeing the emergence of what we call the global south. So, even if the notion is not necessarily very clear, what we see is that more and more, Western values, democracy, the very concept of rights is called into question. Particularly by authoritarian regimes which are capable of making themselves heard within the authorities. And today, the great difficulty is that where sports bodies like the IOC and FIFA should be actors of progress, they are reduced to being actors of the dissemination of ideas which go to the goes once morest the very basic principles of sport. That is to say respect for others and respect for rights. What we see here is a real drift.”
With the 2030 World Cup, we are reaching a peak both from an ecological and environmental point of view. It’s going to be very difficult to justify.
And who can stop that?
“So first of all, the companies which sponsor, which finance and which are partners are very attentive to this. Because sports washing is fun for five minutes, but at some point, it leaves marks. Then there are the NGOs who have done tremendous work, I am thinking in particular of Amnesty International, but it is not enough. And then following the broadcasters. Imagine, for example, an editorial team which will have to send journalists to Morocco, Spain, Portugal and for three matches in South America. The means are not the same. And then, there is a final class of people, those who watch. And we saw in Europe, for example, a drop in audiences for the World Cup in Qatar. There, with the 2030 World Cup, we are reaching a peak both from an ecological and environmental point of view. It’s going to be very difficult to justify. And then, from the point of view of broadcast schedules and the event, that is to say for once we have an event spread across three continents, that will pose problems.“
And at some point, it’s not going to backfire on them. That is exactly the problem. On the contrary, it will bring them more income.
Exactly, do you think that the NGOs, the democratic counter-powers in quotes, that you are talking regarding, will end up making FIFA aware of certain things? Or have we gone towards a permanent single rider?
“So if we are positive, we tell ourselves that they already have the merit of existing and of being heard. And we saw with Qatar 2022 that this had a real impact on the progress of the event and on the image that Qatar wanted to give of itself. Now, if we are realistic, we will realize that it only works in Europe. When you look at the positions in Africa and Asia, especially where there are authoritarian regimes, this discourse does not take hold. It is a discourse that is often associated with a form of Western pressure or presence, a discourse that would ultimately prevent development. And so, in these cases, if we are very honest, FIFA chooses the camp of the majority, ultimately to the detriment of its original camp which is Europe and its values, the West and democracy. And at some point, it’s not going to backfire on them. That is exactly the problem. On the contrary, it will bring them more income.“
But does that mean that in the long term, democratic Europe must also question the fact that it is no longer central?
“LEurope must realize one thing, and that is that the threat is there. This is because today, if football still has its centrality in Europe, this is less the case. We saw it with the Persian Gulf, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia in particular with the match yesterday between Newcastle and PSG. Today, the money comes from the Gulf. What we also see is that football has never been so politicized and it is always done in favor of authoritarian regimes. And at some point, our championships, which are still major championships, will have to impose rules. The Premier League is moving a little, but it remains too timid. There is also competition from the MLS which has very strict rules regarding its owners and their actions. At some point, Europe will have to reaffirm its values and truly use them as leverage. UEFA is starting to do this very timidly. FIFA prefers to look elsewhere, particularly towards authoritarian regimes.“
I fear that 2034, 2038 and even 2042 may be the last moments of the World Cup as we know it.
For 2030, it’s over. For 2034, we have a bit of the impression too. How do you see the sequel 2038, 2042?
“2038, 2042. He has pretty much assured that China, at some point, is going to go there. And if China goes there with regard to its market, with regard to the political means released and with regard to what Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party want to do, it is a safe bet that football will be an axis of development. Rugby too for that matter. Afterwards, we will probably see other actors that we don’t expect. I am thinking of Indonesia and Malaysia which recently hosted a basketball competition with the World Cup. Africa too. It is possible that we will see once more, but this time with other actors in a regional co-organization. And then we would like to see once more a real organization of a World Cup in South America, with all that that implies. For example, Chile will not be part of the party for 2030. It’s a shame. And there is real enthusiasm. It lacks infrastructure, but a priori, that’s the future. There is one last deal and it is ecological and environmental. We will not be able to last in the face of climate change with current logic. And I fear that 2034, 2038 and even 2042 may be the last moments of the World Cup as we know it. It will no longer be possible to play them in the summer and probably, it will cost even more and it will be even more difficult to justify.
Last question, if FIFA does not come out of its authoritarian political environmental bubble, ultimately, is the power of football and FIFA threatened?
“Are they threatened? Objectively, no. Football remains the world’s leading sport. Now, it is true that, in terms of sponsorship, we have already seen an opening towards sponsors who come from authoritarian regimes. Maybe that’s what’s likely to happen. We also see competition from basketball which once more offers another model. We also forget Esport which is gaining enormous ground. So in the long term, FIFA may have an interest in reforming itself. And then, we are not safe from a major geopolitical conflict which would force everyone to choose a side. We saw this with the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. And in this case, it would be very problematic because the sport would literally find itself caught in the middle and forced to choose a side. And in general, this type of situation is never the best.”
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