2023-11-26 16:35:00
—Were you surprised by Javier Milei’s victory?
What surprised me was the result of the first round. I assumed that Milei was going to have a better result because 30% of her was firm and solid. Likewise, for a candidate who has only been campaigning for two years, who came from nowhere in the sense of active politics and who has such a revolutionary speech, achieving the presidency is a true triumph.
— Trump has told Milei that his victory has a global impact. Do you believe it?
Yes it does, but in this Trump is playing tricks. Trump’s economic line has nothing to do with Milei. Trump is a person who is once morest globalization, who is in favor of protectionism, who increased public spending in an enormous way. Trump represents, in economic terms, great protectionism. Milei is the complete opposite.
READ ALSO | Insecurity, counter-reform and pica, by Fernando Vivas
—But both share their criticism of the left…
Sure, there are common elements in that. But we must be careful not to fall into the trap of thinking that Milei is the Argentine Trump. This is a much more educated man, intellectually and academically.
“If (Milei) wants to make a radical reform, he must remain silent until the government takes office; otherwise, you become responsible for what happens when you are not yet the president.”
— Mujica, the former Uruguayan president, has said that the biggest challenge for Milei will be facing the street, because inevitably there will be resistance to the famous promised adjustment.
Milei has to be careful between now and December 10. It would seem that there is not that much time left, but in politics one day is a long time. She has to be careful not to make specific announcements, except for appointments, because you give the adversaries time to organize themselves. You allow them to concentrate efforts where you will be most vulnerable. If you want to make a radical reform, you must remain silent until the government takes office; Otherwise, you become responsible for what happens when you are not yet the president. You have to attack, in the figurative sense of the word, from day one. That is, you have to launch a package of coherent measures without waiting a second to avoid, precisely, creating a climate in which you can no longer act, because you are paralyzed in the face of the protest; and, secondly, because you should avoid gradualism. Look what happened with Macri: he had the best intentions, he produced a rather gradualist government plan and, in the end, he might not execute even half of what he wanted to execute.
— But Milei already made announcements: the privatization of water; of public media. Should water be privatized?
Of course you do, but there are ways to do it. Sedapal should have been licensed a long time ago. Ask any Peruvian who does not necessarily have academic training in privatization issues if they think the service they are receiving is good and they will tell you that it is an absolute disaster. There are ways to privatize and ways to immediately compensate for a rate increase. I do believe that it is a mistake for Milei to start announcing these things, because he cannot make any decision until he assumes power and his adversaries can. His adversaries are in the government, they have the reins and can, from the State, organize magnificent sabotage.
—People on the left say that water should never be privatized.
How many water cuts are there in Peru per week? There is an urgent need to provide a service that is not currently provided. Why are we going to exclude the reform? For ideological reasons? There is no need to fear that debate and that discussion. Obviously, there are very poor people who cannot pay a water fee. Let’s see how we can provide a direct subsidy, but let’s not prevent the service that is vital for the people from being radically improved. It is not the rich neighborhoods that suffer the most, it is the poor ones. It seems shameless to me that people on the left oppose, for purely ideological reasons, the poor, in whose name they speak, getting an infinitely better service than what they are getting.
— Does the American scenario change with Milei?
If Milei is successful, the effect will be continental, there is no doubt. But if it fails, a tragedy will occur for those of us who are liberals.
Milei comfortably won the runoff once morest Massa, but now he will have to face a government without having a majority in either of the two parliamentary chambers and without having managed to win any governorship.
/ LUIS ROBAYO / AFP
—Also look at the animosity of Lula, Petro and López Obrador. Have you seen how they have reacted to Milei’s victory?
It seems a shame to me, almost a crime once morest democracy, that the president of the most important country in the region, which is Brazil, has announced that he will not attend Mr. Milei’s inauguration. With all the ideological differences that there may be, the obligation of a democratic president of Brazil is to attend the inauguration of a new president of Argentina, who is also his partner in Mercosur, which is a neighboring country, which is a country with which it has historical relations. It seems abominable to me that Mr. Lula made this announcement. It is an act of sabotage, it is an act to try to eliminate Milei, to shake him down and mobilize his internal opposition. It seems to me to be a bad decision and the fact of communicating it in this way, very cowardly. I hope they force him to turn back in his country.
—Let’s talk regarding the ideological blindness that also prevents reforms. Look at President Boluarte. Paralyzed, she is right with God and the devil and just trying to resist.
This is another lesson learned from cases of successful liberal reform around the world. We must be in a situation of deep crisis for this type of reform to be accepted by the population. In 1990 we had a huge economic crisis in Peru. My father, with his radical liberal speech, did not win the election, but I do believe that he left the social cushion for Fujimori to carry out a ‘shock’ policy that the people accepted, because there was a very deep crisis. We had a situation of hyperinflation, a collapsed productive apparatus, a scenario in which people were willing to accept things that they would not accept in another scenario.
—Can we go out with Dina Boluarte?
It all depends on the expectation you have. I know they criticize it a lot, but my expectation is different. We must be fair: at a crucial moment in the history of Peru, she took the position that she had to take, she resisted a savage, violent coup coup. She has a lot of guts and a lot of courage, facing many of the people who had been very close to her. I won’t tell you that she saved democracy, but I would say that her contribution was decisive. Therefore, that had to be sustained. Now, my expectation is not that she will make a great liberal reform, that she will make a great government, because she does not have a mandate for that. She is not the political scene that she has.
—She is not liberal, to begin with…
But let’s assume it was. The scenario is that we do not ask for pears from the elm, let us ask him to reach the end of his mandate, that we get out of this recession by restoring confidence. Let us ask him to deliver the next government in a scenario in which we have emerged from the recession, that some confidence has been restored and that it is the next government with a mandate, with a coherent program, with a team prepared for that, that make the reforms that need to be done and that are substantial. I wouldn’t ask for more than that. Yes, what you say is true: trying to stay on good terms with God and the devil produces uncertainty and harms their own work of government. Maybe there are important things to amend even if that causes problems.
— Are you telling us that we have to resist without demanding until 2026?
No. Demanding is democracy. You must always demand; But what I am giving you is simply a dispassionate and realistic analysis of what my expectation is. What I expected is more or less what is happening, that a certain social peace would return to the country; that a certain confidence is slowly recovered so that there is a reactivation at least in the field of mining that is paralyzed. It seems bad to me that they don’t dare to do Tía María, for example, which is a project that is too important and also symbolic. It would send a signal to the community, investment. In this case, the guts that there were at the time to confront the coup plot are missing.
Alvaro Vargas Llosa
— Boluarte’s silence is thunderous in front of Otárola, who speaks every day.
Possibly yes, but I understand that she saw him act in decisive moments, when his presidency was almost hanging by a thread and she quickly understood that he helped stabilize that government. It is very difficult to break that trust that he has earned.
“(Boluarte) is a democratic left-wing president who will find it difficult to take the type of measures that someone like me would like to see taken”
—How do you define Boluarte?
She is a democratic left-wing president who will find it difficult to take the type of measures that someone like me would like to see taken. Therefore, I have no expectations but, at least, she has that virtue that she is a democratic left. Let us never forget that the left that we have in Peru is a deeply undemocratic left that gave itself body and soul to Mr. Castillo. Hopefully in 2026 they will pay an enormous price at the polls for having done that and we will have to take care of reminding people of his behavior. Nor do I see it in the frivolous attitude that the left has called ‘caviar’. She took risks. Much easier would have been to adopt the position that the left ‘caviar’ adopted and she did not.
— More than one economist assures that if we go for this decrease, with more poor Peruvians, we should not be surprised if in 2026 another Castillo wins once more.
I don’t believe it. Peru has had very low intensity growth for a long time and now it has stopped growing, which is why the 2026 elections are critical. What I hope is that the center-right candidacy, which might eventually win the elections, is reformist, that it dares, that it does not come to manage the inheritance, because that would be creating an explosive scenario and the next president would be a crazy leftist. . I think we have to have bold reform options and that is going to take guts, courage and vision. I hope that appears in the sky.
—Don’t you see a liberal in the firmament?
Let’s see what happens. There are interesting things that are in formation. There is the party of Rafael Belaunde Llosa and Pedro Cateriano. My good friend Carlos Añaños is also in attendance. There are good people. We have to wait for them to enter the arena and tell us what they are willing to do.
Alvaro Vargas Llosa
“I respect my father’s decision and I think it is a brave decision”
— Your father, our Nobel Prize winner, has announced his retirement from active literature. This is bad news for all his readers.
What he announced is at the end of “I dedicate my silence to him.” There is a note where she says that she will no longer write novels. Age is a compelling argument. To write a novel you need several years with a level of concentration and intellectual power that is not compatible with this stage of life, which does not mean that you have to give up other things. I respect that decision and I think it is a brave decision, too. That does not mean that you cannot continue enjoying your vocation, in other ways that are more appropriate to this stage of your life.
—In Christian, what you are telling us is “I don’t have the time to write another great novel”?
His retirement from the novels causes sadness. For all of us, it is the same. I have grown up seeing him passionately dedicated to a vocation, so you will understand how difficult it is.
Mario Vargas Llosa, winner of the 2023 Nobel Prize in Literature. In the image, with the attire from the ceremony of his entry into the Swedish Academy in February 2023.
/ EMMANUEL DUNAND
—Did he consult you regarding this decision?
No, more than asking me what happened, it’s that we had been talking regarding it for some time now. My father talks regarding all these things in the family, he tells them himself; so it wasn’t a surprise. What he was is that he decided to include it at the end of his last novel. I even told him a couple of times if he was sure, if that was a good idea or if it was preferable to keep it in reserve, as a personal decision and that, later, time would show it to people. But he decided to write it.
—How is your health?
Very good. Obviously, with some age-related ailments. She gets very frustrated with memory losses, which are typical of age. The important thing is that she is reading, she is walking, she is enjoying time with her family and, when she can, she goes to the Academy in both Madrid and Paris. He also attends our International Freedom Foundation events. He comes, but he no longer has a very participatory role, in the sense that he doesn’t speak, he no longer gives long speeches or anything like that. He still maintains the illusion of being there and listening. What I mean is that he maintains his level of activity appropriate to reality, at his age, and this is something very important, because when you don’t accept, you get much more frustrated.
—The dedication to Patricia seemed impressive to me…
Yes, of course, well deserved. Especially when it comes to his latest novel. She is the person he owes the most to in his life, the one he has been most in love with, right? It was, without a doubt, the logical step and we are all very happy.4
1701030349
#Álvaro #Vargas #Llosa #Javier #Milei #fails #tragedy #occur #liberals #INTERVIEW #Latin #America #Argentina #Elections #Sergio #Massa #Dina #Boluarte #Peru #South #America #POLICY