Election starts at 10 a.m. on the 7th.
Concerns over whether the ruling party (LDP, Gongmyung Party) won a majority
With the Japanese House of Representatives (Senate) election starting on the morning of the 10th, it is interesting to see whether the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which occurred just before the election, will affect the election.
In this election, 125 members (including one vacancy), half of the members of the House of Representatives, will be elected as constituencies and proportional representation. After the voting ends at 8 pm, the results of the exit polls by the media will be released. The outline of the election results is expected to come out between the midnight of the day and the early morning of the 11th.
The main point to watch in the House of Representatives election on this day is whether the LDP and the ruling coalition, the Gongmyung Party, will be able to secure a majority (63 seats) of the 125 seats. Local media believe that it will be able to easily maintain a majority of the seats.
According to the results of a poll conducted this month by three local media outlets, the Yomiuri Shimbun, Asahi Shimbun, and Mainichi Shimbun, it was expected that the LDP and the ruling coalition party, the Komeito, would win at least 63 seats and a maximum of 80 seats out of the 125 newly elected.
The assassination of former Prime Minister Abe at the end of the election has emerged as a sudden variable. Former Prime Minister Abe has exerted considerable influence over Fumio Kishida’s cabinet and led the Abe faction, the largest faction within the LDP. Because of this, there is also a forecast that more ‘sympathy votes’ will be drawn to the LDP.
According to Archyde.com, James Brady, a Teneo consultant, said, “The coalition of the ruling LDP and Komeito is heading towards victory.”
Attention is also focused on whether the constitution will be amended following the election. Ahead of the election, as security threats grew in Japan due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s advance into the sea, and North Korea’s missile launch, strengthening defense capabilities and constitutional amendment emerged as a key issue in this election.
In order to propose a constitutional amendment, more than two-thirds of the members of the House of Representatives (House of Representatives) and the lower house of the House of Representatives must each agree to the proposal. Four political parties, the Liberal Democratic Party, the Gongmyung Party, the Japan Restoration Party, and the People’s Democratic Party, and some independent lawmakers are classified as constitutional reform forces.
If the constitutional reform force secures 82 seats or more in this election, which will elect 125 new seats, it will retain more than two-thirds (166 seats) of the 248 seats in the House of Representatives.
Choi Soo-jin, reporter at Hankyung.com [email protected]
