2024-01-03 22:57:00
The Tokyo stock market is expected to fall on the 4th, the first trading day of the year. In the U.S. market during Japan’s holiday period, expectations for an early interest rate cut have receded, and as interest rates rise, prices have fallen, mainly in technology stocks such as those related to semiconductors.In Japan, there is also likely to be a sell-off in electronics, precision equipment, and materials stocks. Due to the Ishikawa Prefecture Noto Peninsula earthquake that occurred on the 1st, there is a tendency for people to hold off on buying as they want to assess the impact on production.
- The liquidation price of Nikkei 225 futures (denominated in yen) on the Chicago Futures Market (CME) was 33,065 yen, 355 yen lower than the regular closing price (33,420 yen) of the Osaka Exchange’s Dainakai.
- US stocks fell on the 3rd – US 10-year bond yield was 3.92% (3.88% on December 29, 2023)
Takashi Ito Senior Strategist at Nomura Securities
- US technology stocks and semiconductor indexes have fallen significantly during the Japanese holiday period, and today’s Japanese stocks, mainly semiconductor-related, are likely to start trading in line with this.
- While U.S. stocks as a whole are wary of high prices, technology stocks and semiconductor-related stocks are concerned regarding the impact of the dollar’s strong trend on guidance for the January-March quarter.
- In the U.S., expectations for interest rate cuts have been strongly factored in, and U.S. stocks are likely to see a speedy adjustment due to a reactionary reaction or concerns regarding high prices.
- Currently, the Noto Peninsula earthquake is still at the stage where saving lives is a priority, and economic activity has not yet begun, so it is unclear how it will affect supply chains and consumption activities.
- The negative impact on the stock market and inbound tourism is not zero, but the Japanese economy as a whole is not in a state of turmoil, so there is a possibility that it will not have a major impact.
background
- FOMC meeting summary maintains high interest rates “for the time being” – looking to cut interest rates in 2024
- Apple stock falls on the 2nd, Barclays becomes bearish – warns of softening iPhone demand
- [Noto Peninsula Earthquake]73 people died in Ishikawa Prefecture, some regional banks temporarily closed branches
- The dollar/yen exchange rate in Kesa is in the low 143 yen range to the dollar, and the closing price of Japanese stocks at Dainokai is 141 yen.32.
- [Remarks from VIPs]The possibility of a soft landing is increasing, but it is not inevitable – President Barkin
- Click here for the previous day’s overseas market conditions
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