2024-04-30 02:48:52
This article is compiled from Jackson Holliday has struggled in his MLB debut so far, but here are three reasons to believe in the Orioles prospect
Jackson Holliday, infielder for the Baltimore Orioles,CBS Ranks No. 1 Among Top 50 Recruits of the Season, has been playing in the major leagues for more than a week. But the bad news is that Holliday had a big decline in his first week in the major leagues. As of the April 17 game, he had only one hit in the first 25 major league at-bats, along with one strikeout. the ratio was even 14-1, which was very difficult for hitters and not ideal.
The good news for Holliday is that major league performance is determined not by the first few games, but by how players gradually adjust and adapt to the environment. Several of his Orioles teammates illustrate this fact. The Orioles produced many young hitters, and most of them took time to adjust before their results gradually took off.
- Catcher Adley Rutschman: Forward 176 at-bats, .210/.296/.389
- Shortstop Gunnar Henderson: .224/.339/.394 in 289 at-bats
- Outfielder Colton Cowser: .115/.286/.148 in first 77 at-bats
Rutschman is now an integral part of the team, Henderson has the potential to win the MVP award and Cowser is gradually establishing himself on the Orioles’ talented roster. Ideally, these three players, along with Holliday, should shine in their first appearance in the big leagues, but sometimes you have to be patient. This is especially true for Holliday, who won’t turn 21 until December.
We might talk all day regarding the dangers of analyzing from small samples, but instead of getting into it, let’s look at three observations from each of Holliday’s first weeks. Let’s talk slowly together!
1. Correct combat strategy
We know what you’re thinking, with just one hit in the first 25 at-bats, how much better can a hitting strategy be? But when analyzing a small sample, you need to analyze the matting process separately from the results.
The general concept of “batting strategy” measures a hitter’s ability in several aspects: the ability to distinguish good and bad pitches, the ability to catch easy pitches to attack, and to adapt to different situations (including including how the pitcher behaves towards you, the umpire’s strike zone and the current situation).
In terms of batting strategy, Holliday’s chase rate is high (33.3%), but his swing batting strategy is decent. The image above shows the basic position of all dead throws before Holliday’s two strikes. Almost all of the strikes were below the strike zone or to the outside corner. It follows that Holliday targets pitches above the strike zone or to the inside corners.
What can be seen is that where the hot strike zone extends across the entire home plate strike zone, there are several outlier sample points that will gradually revert to the mean as the number of samples increases. Another point to note is that Holliday used to attack the inside of the strike zone in the minor leagues, and his front foot is also slightly open, showing that he is better at playing in the corners interiors. Interestingly, Holliday can also show off his offensive prowess once morest more interior passes.
Judging a hitter’s batting strategy is often subjective. Baseball Prospectus author Robert Orr once attempted to quantify a hitter’s pitch selection and offensive power, developing a method called “”SEGER“Index of. By this measure, Holliday is the Orioles’ best-scoring hitter, which means that his current offensive strategy is indeed good.
So why can’t you get good results?
2. Bad swing timing
“Swing timing” is a simpler concept than “batting strategy,” and poor swing speed has multiple consequences, including missed swings (which Holliday is currently experiencing) and foul balls. Swing timing also affects the direction and quality of the ball hit. The reason is simple. If the batter swings too early, it will likely be a pull strike; if the batter swings too slowly, it will likely be a reverse attack.
With that in mind, Holliday didn’t hit a ball until Game 7 on April 17, when Pablo López’s changeup was hit like a lazy ball to right field. Most of Holliday’s hits in Week 1 were grounders, flyballs, and flyballs that hit in the opposite direction, includingThat big fly ball to right fieldas well asA card that stayed in the air a little too long in the left center and was declared forfeit。
We mentioned Holliday’s offensive style in the minor leagues earlier, and we can also take a look at his hit distribution when he was hot. Each point in the figure below represents the distribution of each ball’s landing point when Holliday’s batting angle is greater than 10 degrees (his average minor league batting angle is 9.9 degrees, but in the major leagues, the average is only 1.9 degrees).
There are a few instances where Holliday hits a ball to the left, but in most cases his attack lands on the right side of center. But in the first week of the major leagues, Holliday’s bat placement wasn’t like that. This may be due to the influence of raising his feet, but we think Holliday is still adjusting to the ball speed and level of major league pitching. these pitchers are in the major leagues rather than Triple-A reason. With good timing on his swing, Holliday will be able to bring the ball back to right center.
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