The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued its first warning about Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, which is emerging as a threat to western Cuba, covering the provinces from Pinar del Río to Matanzas.
Recent data indicate that the system has a closed center and is progressively strengthening, although it has not yet reached the category of tropical depression due to the incomplete organization of its convection.
NHC track projections suggest that this phenomenon will move north, passing near Jamaica by Monday night, with possible significant impacts also on the Cayman Islands and western Cuba in the following days.
As the system moves toward it is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday and a hurricane before presumably making landfall in Cuba on Tuesday night.
Conditions conducive to intensification
The current meteorological environment in the Caribbean favors the development of this cyclone, which increases the chances of it rapidly intensifying in the coming days.
While the system could reach hurricane status before hitting Cuba, wind shear and dry air in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to slow its intensification later in the week.
For residents of Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba, authorities maintain warnings due to the high risk of strong winds, storm surges and heavy rains that could cause flooding and landslides in some areas.
The NHC has indicated that Jamaica is under a tropical storm warning, and in the coming hours additional watches could be issued for the Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba.
Recommendations for western Cuba and the Florida Keys
The Florida Keys region should also be on alert, since the CNH does not rule out that, in the next few hours, tropical storm watches will be issued for some areas of this area. Meanwhile, residents on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should closely follow updates on this phenomenon, as the conditions and trajectory still present certain uncertainties that could modify the forecast for that region.
Possible effects of heavy rains and risk of flooding
The strong rain activity will affect areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and western Cuba, with an increase in the risk of flooding and possible landslides in vulnerable areas. As the system moves forward, it is anticipated that these rains could extend into the southeastern United States, including Florida, between Thursday and Friday.
Given this situation, the CNH reiterates the importance of closely monitoring the development of this potential cyclone and staying up to date with the instructions of local authorities.
#hurricane #reaching #Cuba #Trajectory #cone #Matanzas #Pinar #del #Río
**Interview Segment on Tropical Storm Rafael**
**Host:** Welcome back to our coverage of Tropical Storm Rafael, which has recently formed in the Caribbean and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane. With us today is Dr. Elena Vargas, a meteorologist from the National Hurricane Center. Thank you for joining us, Dr. Vargas.
**Dr. Vargas:** Thank you for having me. It’s important to keep everyone informed about these developments.
**Host:** Can you explain the latest status of Tropical Storm Rafael and its projected path?
**Dr. Vargas:** Certainly! As of now, the storm is showing signs of strengthening. It has developed a closed center, which indicates it’s becoming more organized. The National Hurricane Center has issued warnings for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, as the storm is expected to pass near Jamaica tonight and bring potential impacts to western Cuba in the coming days.
**Host:** What kind of impacts should residents in these areas brace for?
**Dr. Vargas:** Residents should prepare for strong winds, heavy rain, and the possibility of storm surges, which could lead to flooding and landslides, especially in vulnerable areas. Authorities are tracking the storm closely and may issue additional warnings as it nears landfall.
**Host:** You mentioned that conditions in the Caribbean are conducive to intensification. Can you elaborate on what that means?
**Dr. Vargas:** Absolutely. The meteorological environment right now, including warm ocean waters and favorable wind patterns, is allowing the storm to strengthen rapidly. However, we are also monitoring for factors like wind shear and dry air in the Gulf of Mexico, which could impede further intensification later this week.
**Host:** As a final thought, what precautions should residents take right now?
**Dr. Vargas:** It’s essential for residents to stay updated through local weather reports and to have emergency plans in place. Stock supplies of food, water, medications, and any necessary materials for securing properties. Being proactive can make a significant difference in safety.
**Host:** Thank you, Dr. Vargas, for your insights. We’ll continue to monitor the situation closely.
**Dr. Vargas:** Thank you for having me. Stay safe, everyone.
**Host:** That was Dr. Elena Vargas from the National Hurricane Center. Stay tuned for more updates on Tropical Storm Rafael as it develops.
