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On his first visit to an Arab country since 2011, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah, was well received in the United Arab Emirates, which has normalized its relations with Israel. Experts estimate that this visit would not have occurred without Iranian approval, but it brings Syria closer and closer to returning to the bosom of the Arab League.
caused Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s visit to me The United Arab Emirates On March 18 – the first for an Arab country since 2011 – in a surprise to the parties unaccustomed to great contradictions in the Middle East, or even just those who think regarding the logic of the politics of interests and realism.
How can one explain the visit of Iran’s ally and the Lebanese Hezbollah – who together with Russia contributed to saving the regime and together form the “axis of resistance” once morest Israel and the United States – to the Emirates, a pioneering recent among Arab countries in normalizing their relations with the Hebrew state within the framework of the Abraham agreements formulated by the administration Is this without considering Abu Dhabi as one of the most important parties to the Yemeni conflict?
However, experts in the region stress that this visit would not have taken place without the approval of the Iranians, the main allies of Bashar al-Assad.
“Syria is on alert because it suspects some Arab countries of maneuvering aimed at normalizing its relationship with the Zionist regime,” said Major General Ali Mamlouk, head of the National Security Bureau, during his meeting in early March with Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdollahian in Tehran.
Iranian green light
“Bashar al-Assad does not have much room for maneuver and cannot separate from Tehran by visiting the United Arab Emirates without its consent, as Abu Dhabi is the main regional power that has recently normalized its relations with Israel, the archenemy of the Iranians,” said Fabrice Balanche, a lecturer at France 24 University. Leon 2, the specialist in Syrian affairs.
Ziad Majed, a professor specializing in Middle Eastern affairs at the American University in Paris and one of the authors of the book “Inside Bashar al-Assad’s Head”, agrees with him. He says:
“The diplomacy of the Syrian regime is a copy of the foreign policy of its Russian and Iranian protectors, whose borders the regime remains obliged not to go beyond. Thus, it is certain that Assad received the Iranian and Russian green light to visit Abu Dhabi, because both Moscow and Tehran find some interest in a meeting between Assad and Muhammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and the holder of extensive influence in the Gulf state.
Ziad Majed explains that the Islamic Republic of Iran, “similar to the pro-Iranian Lebanese Hezbollah,” has always adopted a “very pragmatic policy in which everything remains permissible, through which it is allowed to link any kind of relations, alliances or maneuvers, while preventing all of that from its opponents.”
“With or without the Abraham Accords, the Iranians also have an interest in linking relations with the Emiratis through Bashar al-Assad or another party. This is due to the desire to address the Yemen file, where the Iranians are grappling with their opponents, but without allowing any concession from the Syrian president that might harm their interests in addition. to the complete exclusion of the idea of normalizing relations between Syria and Israel.
Iran’s interest in the visit may be of an economic nature, according to Fabrice Balanche, who also talks regarding “red lines that Syria is not allowed to cross,” especially with regard to issues related to the Hebrew state.
Balanche added: “If Bashar al-Assad is able to obtain financial aid from the Gulf countries to advance his country’s economy and launch the reconstruction process, this will relieve the Iranians, since they will be less forced to help Bashar al-Assad financially. Damascus cannot secure its necessary economic needs without its allies, especially oil. Iran and the financial support from Tehran, which is costing it a lot, which in turn is suffering from a difficult economic situation.”
A ‘highly symbolic’ visit
The Iranians, like the Russians, also have an interest in returning the Syrian president to his Arab milieu, because that would mean a new failure for the West, which called and worked to change the regime in Damascus before the Syrian regime was rescued by Tehran and Moscow.
And Balanche added, “Bashar al-Assad went to the Emirates full of confidence due to the strengthening of his relations with Mohammed bin Zayed in recent years, especially since the Gulf state was the first to take the initiative to reopen its embassy in Damascus and worked at one time to restore Syria’s seat in the Arab League. Therefore, the president’s departure From November 2022 to Algeria, where the next Arab summit will be held, and taking a picture with the rest of the leaders and leaders of countries, will mean that he won his bet in returning to the Arab family and restoring his legitimacy, which also represents a victory for his Russian and Iranian supporters.
The Syrian regime, isolated by Western powers from the international community and accused of using chemical weapons once morest its people and boycotted by Sunni forces in the region, was expelled from the Arab League in November 2011 in protest once morest the severe repression of the popular uprising.
Balanche concludes by saying: “Bashar al-Assad turned to his Arab partners who have the capabilities to guarantee economic assistance that would allow the reconstruction of his country, because he knows very well that he cannot wait for anything big from the West, and he doubts that it is difficult to restore his legitimacy to Western powers.”
Ziad Majed considers that “between the Western sanctions once morest Moscow and the international public opinion revolting once morest the war launched by the Kremlin in Ukraine, it remains unlikely that we will hear once more some voices that rose in the West to demand the return or normalization of relations with the regime of Bashar al-Assad.”
Majed added, “While Syria finds itself in a catastrophic economic and financial situation with the regime suffocating with sanctions, Bashar al-Assad, accused of war crimes and crimes once morest humanity, can only turn to Arab countries that no longer pay much attention to his past.”
Majed concludes that “the importance of this visit lies in its great symbolism, as the Syrian president wants to show that he has returned to the international arena, especially in the Arab world, and that he has regained his position on the regional arena following being received by a country that plays an active role at the international level and is now a member of the Security Council.” international”.
Text: Mark Daou
Quote in Arabic: Omar Al-Tays
