ISW explains why a more favorable war period is approaching for Russia

December 20 Mr. Kirby said that Russian forces intend to continue offensive operations, especially in the vicinity of Avdijivka, and that the White House believes that it will be easier for Russian forces to conduct offensive operations when in 2024. at the end of January and February the cold will bind the earth.

The autumn mud season has hindered Ukrainian and Russian forces from maneuvering on the ground since 2014, but periods of prolonged frost, which usually begin in late December, harden the ground and allow armored vehicles to move more easily than during the muddy autumn and spring months.

However, the weather is fickle, and the coming period of severe frost may come later, or if the winter is mild, it may not come at all, so the favorable time for mechanized maneuver warfare may be shorter.

Russian forces have launched localized offensive operations across eastern Ukraine during the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and hold the initiative rather than wait for a severe freeze.

2022-2023 Russian forces will likely try to maintain or intensify these offensive operations regardless of weather conditions this winter, as they did in 2022-2023. in winter, reports ISW.