2023-05-13 17:53:49
Israel’s impossible options: accept the conditions of “jihad” or risk the expansion of the war with the march of the flags
The Israeli Ministry of Security has postponed its plans to evacuate the settlers around the Gaza Strip, who number regarding 60,000, until Tuesday, with expectations within the Israeli security and intelligence circles that the Islamic Jihad movement will continue firing rockets until the date of the “flag march,” corresponding to the anniversary of the occupation of Jerusalem on the 18th. May of each year, which the occupation government insisted, as reported by “Yedioth Ahronoth” earlier this month, before the start of the latest round of fighting, that it would not change its route that passes through the Damascus Gate in occupied Jerusalem, “even if the price is escalation.”
However, the occupation government, which was keen not to drag Hamas into the confrontation, may change its calculations now, with the fear that the establishment of the march along its specified path, and in light of the continuation of the aggression on Gaza, may pave the way for Hamas to enter the battle without major calculations that it may impose. Regional and international mediators, as happened in last year’s march, which was punctuated by sectarian and racist provocations by settlers, and the passage through the Damascus Gate, but the mediators intervened to contain the situation.
The crossing of the “flags’ march” in the courtyard of Al-Aqsa Mosque, which also includes the Old City, was the red line drawn by the Palestinian resistance before the battle of “Saif Al-Quds” in May 2021, which was accompanied by movement along the geography of occupied Palestine, in the interior, the West Bank and Jerusalem, as well as Rocket bursts were fired from southern Lebanon.
In light of these facts, Israel will look with concern at the possibility of the situation exploding in the event that the confrontation extends until that date, as the effects of “Hamas” joining the fighting may extend to the northern front, especially since the matter will relate to Al-Aqsa Mosque, which was previously announced by the Secretary-General of “Hezbollah.” Hassan Nasrallah, following the 2021 aggression, expressed a “new equation” regarding it, which requires that any Israeli attack on it might mean a regional war.
One of the commentators of the Israeli “Official Broadcasting Corporation” sums up this situation by saying: “We kill the leader, then whoever replaces him, then whoever replaces him, but the reality does not change.”
Last Ramadan, new messages were launched in this direction through the largest missile bombardment of Israel from Lebanese territory following the July war in 2006, and this was following the brutal storming of the Israeli security forces into the courtyard of the mosque and the evacuation of worshipers from it in preparation for the settlers’ incursions during the Jewish Passover holidays. At the time, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu pursued the same strategy it is pursuing now. It is reducing the level of confrontation and confining it to the “weaker faction”, as it responded in Gaza, pointing the finger of accusation at “Hamas”, and sending several signals that it is not interested in a confrontation in the north. Then, a few days later, it announced a halt to settler incursions into Al-Aqsa until the end of Ramadan.
Today, with the Islamic Jihad’s insistence on its two main demands, to stop the Israeli assassination policy, and to free the body of the captive martyr Khader Adnan, whose soul embraced freedom following 86 days of hunger strike, Israeli security assessments go, according to what the official Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reported, today, Saturday. He pointed out that the “Islamic Jihad” movement will extend the confrontation until at least the date of the march of the flags, at a time when the “Quds Brigades” announced, in a statement today, Saturday, that it had prepared itself for months of confrontation.
Weak signals
In light of this reality, it seems that the Israeli calculations have begun to tend towards promoting the formula of “fire with fire and calm with quiet”, meaning continuing the raids in Gaza until “Jihad” stops firing rockets, without signing a truce agreement or making commitments to the mediators.
This is the story that has been repeated in various Israeli media outlets over the past two days, and was confirmed by the commander of the occupation army, Herzi Halevi, before entering the meeting to assess the situation with Netanyahu and Security Minister Yoav Gallant, today, Saturday, when he declared that continuing “jihad” means launching rockets. The continued bombing of Gaza, and the “accumulation of achievements,” referring to the assassination of the movement’s leaders. Halevy implicitly hints that the demand to stop the assassinations, which the “Jihad” leaders insist on, will only be achieved through a cease-fire.
This statement carries some regression in the tone of the discourse of the leaders of the security echelon in the occupying state, which began its aggression with a resounding promise regarding “continuing targeting Israel’s enemies at any time and place,” and preparing for extended fighting on several fronts.
This is reinforced by another statement reported by the Israeli media from the office of the Prime Minister of the occupying Power, the content of which is that “If (Hamas) does not set a red line for jihad obliging it to stop firing rockets, then this means that the balance of power in the Strip has changed, and this indicates the weakness of Hamas.” This message contains a miserable attempt to embarrass Hamas, insofar as it reflects an Israeli haste to stop the round of escalation, without providing guarantees for the resistance. As the security correspondent of the Israeli Channel 13 said live.
The dilemma of impossible choices
In view of this reality, the Netanyahu government finds itself stuck between two impossible options: either to agree to the two conditions of “jihad”, which means squandering the “achievements” that it marketed at the beginning of the attack, and presenting a defeated image to its public; Or let things roll until the date of the settlers’ march on the anniversary of the occupation of Jerusalem; This means that the regional war, with which Israel became accustomed to last Ramadan, will become more staring than before.
Until then, “Jihad” continues to show steadfastness and continuity in combat work, despite the assassination of 6 of its leaders, and the official Israeli Broadcasting Authority claimed that the leadership of the movement’s field work has been transferred to its officials abroad. In addition to what the occupation army is constantly promoting regarding targeting weapon installations and movement fighters in the field.
As of 4:00 pm today, the occupation army counted 1,234 launches towards Israeli territory, 373 of which were intercepted by Iron Dome, in contrast to 371 raids by the occupation aircraft. Of these, more than 130 missiles were launched today, even before the last missile bursts, at 5:00 pm.
The fifth day of the fighting also witnessed a remarkable development, represented by the “Al-Quds Brigades” heading towards targeting the gatherings and sites of the occupation bordering Gaza with guided missiles, following the occupation claimed that it had assassinated “8 cells” of the anti-tank units of “Al-Jihad” while they were moving to carry out operations in the vicinity of the Strip. Also yesterday, the occupation army announced that the large fire that broke out in open lands on the Israeli side of the border with the Strip was the result of an anti-tank missile fired from there.
Day following day, it seems that the strategic patience of the resistance, despite the painful sacrifices among its leadership, has started to backfire with military results on the occupying state. , to frantic debates between the commentators on the air, dominated by a tone of restlessness and despair, while the resistance missiles are still raining down on the Israeli settlements, at distances reaching the central areas, with almost the same intensity, and for the fifth day in a row.
This means that the strategic goal that the Netanyahu government begged at the start of its attack, which is to “restore calm in the south”, has not been achieved, and that the “droke of victory” with the sudden assassination plot of the three leaders at the beginning of the aggression is fading away. One of the commentators of the Israeli “Official Broadcasting Authority”, during a live interview on Friday, summarized this situation by saying: “We kill the leader, then whoever replaces him, then whoever replaces him, but the reality does not change.”
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